Bias in the prediction of genetic gain due to mass and half-sib selection in random mating populations

The prediction of gains from selection allows the comparison of breeding methods and selection strategies, although these estimates may be biased. The objective of this study was to investigate the extent of such bias in predicting genetic gain. For this, we simulated 10 cycles of a hypothetical breeding program that involved seven traits, three population classes, three experimental conditions and two breeding methods (mass and half-sib selection). Each combination of trait, population, heritability, method and cycle was repeated 10 times. The predicted gains were biased, even when the genetic parameters were estimated without error. Gain from selection in both genders is twice the gain from selection in a single gender only in the absence of dominance. The use of genotypic variance or broad sense heritability in the predictions represented an additional source of bias. Predictions based on additive variance and narrow sense heritability were equivalent, as were predictions based on genotypic variance and broad sense heritability. The predictions based on mass and family selection were suitable for comparing selection strategies, whereas those based on selection within progenies showed the largest bias and lower association with the realized gain

Discrimination of water quality monitoring sites in River Vouga using a mixed-effect state space model

The surface water quality monitoring is an important concern of public organizations due to its relevance to the public health. Statistical methods are taken as consistent and essential tools in the monitoring procedures in order to prevent and identify environmental problems. This work presents the study case of the hydrological basin of the river Vouga, in Portugal. The main goal is discriminate the water monitoring sites using the monthly dissolved oxygen concentration dataset between January 2002 and May 2013. This is achieved through the extraction of trend and seasonal components in a linear mixed-effect state space model. The parameters estimation is performed with both maximum likelihood method and distribution-free estimators in a two-step procedure. The application of the Kalman smoother algorithm allows to obtain predictions of the structural components as trend and seasonality. The water monitoring sites are discriminated through the structural components by a hierarchical agglomerative clustering procedure. This procedure identified different homogenous groups relatively to the trend and seasonality components and some characteristics of the hydrological basin are presented in order to support the results

Modelling Patient Behaviour Using IoT Sensor Data: a Case Study to Evaluate Techniques for Modelling Domestic Behaviour in Recovery from Total Hip Replacement Surgery

The UK health service sees around 160,000 total hip or knee replacements every year and this number is expected to rise with an ageing population. Expectations of surgical outcomes are changing alongside demographic trends, whilst aftercare may be fractured as a result of resource limitations. Conventional assessments of health outcomes must evolve to keep up with these changing trends. Health outcomes may be assessed largely by self-report using Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs), such as the Oxford Hip or Oxford Knee Score, in the months up to and following surgery. Though widely used, many PROMs have methodological limitations and there is debate about how to interpret results and definitions of clinically meaningful change. With the development of a home-monitoring system, there is opportunity to characterise the relationship between PROMs and behaviour in a natural setting and to develop methods of passive monitoring of outcome and recovery after surgery. In this paper, we discuss the motivation and technology used in long-term continuous observation of movement, sleep and domestic routine for healthcare applications, such as the HEmiSPHERE project for hip and knee replacement patients. In this case study, we evaluate trends evident in data of two patients, collected over a 3-month observation period post-surgery, by comparison with scores from PROMs for sleep and movement quality, and by comparison with a third control home. We find that accelerometer and indoor localisation data correctly highlight long-term trends in sleep and movement quality and can be used to predict sleep and wake times and measure sleep and wake routine variance over time, whilst indoor localisation provides context for the domestic routine and mobility of the patient. Finally, we discuss a visual method of sharing findings with healthcare professionals

Clustering and forecasting of dissolved oxygen concentration on a river basin

The aim of this contribution is to combine statistical methodologies to geographically classify homogeneous groups of water quality monitoring sites based on similarities in the temporal dynamics of the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration, in order to obtain accurate forecasts of this quality variable. Our methodology intends to classify the water quality monitoring sites into spatial homogeneous groups, based on the DO concentration, which has been selected and considered relevant to characterize the water quality. We apply clustering techniques based on Kullback Information, measures that are obtained in the state space modelling process. For each homogeneous group of water quality monitoring sites we model the DO concentration using linear and state space models, which incorporate tendency and seasonality components in different ways. Both approaches are compared by the mean squared error (MSE) of forecasts

New insights into the distribution and conservation status of the Golden-White Tassel-Ear Marmoset Mico chrysoleucos (Primates, Callitrichidae)

Among the 13 Mico species recognized by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, six are listed as "Data Deficient". The geographic range of most of the Mico species has been estimated from only a few records. We report new localities and the geographic extension of Mico chrysoleucos. In addition, we confirmed the presence of the species in two distinct protected areas. We modeled the habitat suitability of M. chrysoleucos using the maximum entropy method and including new records obtained by the authors in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. From the total area of occurrence calculated for the species, 22.8% is covered by protected areas and indigenous lands. The annual mean deforestation rate estimated between 2000 and 2015 was 2.95%, and the total area deforested by 2015 was 3354 km2 or 8.6% of the total distribution limits of the species. The habitat lost between 2000 and 2015 was 3.2% (1131 km2 ) of the total potential distribution, while the habitat loss area legally protected was 31 km2, and the habitat loss in settlements was equal to 691 km2. Our results extend the geographic distribution of the species about 100 km farther south, with the Maracanã River being a possible geographic barrier for the species. The significantly low rate of habitat loss inside protected areas and indigenous land, when compared to unprotected areas, points out the importance of these areas to M. chrysoleucos conservation. The species is relatively wide-ranging, legally protected, and resilient to regional anthropic threats. However, the hydroelectric schemes and the improvement of the road system in southern Amazonia pose an imminent threat to the species

The role of gut-liver axis in the restriction of intrauterine growth in a model of experimental gastroschisis

PURPOSE: To evaluate the intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) by the expression of IR-&#946;, IRS-1, IRS-2, IGF-IR&#946; and Ikappa&#946; in experimental model of gastroschisis. METHODS: Pregnant rats at 18.5 days of gestation were submitted to surgery to create experimental fetal gastroschisis (term = 22 days) were divided in three groups: gastroschisis (G), control (C) and sham (S). Fetuses were evaluated for body weight (BW), intestinal (IW), liver (LW) and their relations IW/BW and LW/BW. IR-&#946; and IGF-IR&#946; receptors, IRS-1 and IRS-2 substrates and Ikappa&#946; protein were analyzed by western blotting. RESULTS: BW was lower in G, the IW and IW / BW were greater than C and S (p<0.05) groups. The liver showed no differences between groups. In fetuses with gastroschisis, compared with control fetuses, the expression of IGF-IR&#946; (p<0.001) and Ikappa&#946; (p<0.001) increased in the liver and intestine, as well as IR-&#946; (p<0.001) which decreased in both. In contrast to the intestine, IRS-1 (p<0.001) increased in the liver and IRS-2 decreased (p<0.01). CONCLUSION: The axis of the intestine liver has an important role in inflammation, with consequent changes in the metabolic pathway of glucose can contribute to the IUGR in fetuses with gastroschisis

Genetic structure of sigmodontine rodents (Cricetidae) along an altitudinal gradient of the Atlantic Rain Forest in southern Brazil

The population genetic structure of two sympatric species of sigmodontine rodents (Oligoryzomys nigripes and Euryoryzomys russatus) was examined for mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence haplotypes of the control region. Samples were taken from three localities in the Atlantic Rain Forest in southern Brazil, along an altitudinal gradient with different types of habitat. In both species there was no genetic structure throughout their distribution, although levels of genetic variability and gene flow were high

TCR signal strength controls thymic differentiation of discrete proinflammatory gamma delta T cell subsets

The mouse thymus produces discrete gd T cell subsets that make either interferon-g (IFN-g) or interleukin 17 (IL-17), but the role of the T cell antigen receptor (TCR) in this developmental process remains controversial. Here we show that Cd3g+/− Cd3d+/− (CD3 double-haploinsufficient (CD3DH)) mice have reduced TCR expression and signaling strength on gd T cells. CD3DH mice had normal numbers and phenotypes of ab thymocyte subsets, but impaired differentiation of fetal Vg6+ (but not Vg4+) IL-17- producing gd T cells and a marked depletion of IFN-g-producing CD122+ NK1.1+ gd T cells throughout ontogeny. Adult CD3DH mice showed reduced peripheral IFN-g+ gd T cells and were resistant to experimental cerebral malaria. Thus, TCR signal strength within specific thymic developmental windows is a major determinant of the generation of proinflammatory gd T cell subsets and their impact on pathophysiology