Bayesian regression filter and the issue of priors

We propose a Bayesian framework for regression problems, which covers areas which are usually dealt with by function approximation. An online learning algorithm is derived which solves regression problems with a Kalman filter. Its solution always improves with increasing model complexity, without the risk of over-fitting. In the infinite dimension limit it approaches the true Bayesian posterior. The issues of prior selection and over-fitting are also discussed, showing that some of the commonly held beliefs are misleading. The practical implementation is summarised. Simulations using 13 popular publicly available data sets are used to demonstrate the method and highlight important issues concerning the choice of priors

Cognition, culture and utility:Plant classification by Paraguayan immigrant farmers in Misiones, Argentina

Background: This study was conducted in three rural communities of small farmers of Paraguayan origin living in the province of Misiones, Argentina. These Criollos (Mestizos) hail chiefly from departments located in the east of Paraguay, where the climate and flora have similar characteristics as those in Misiones. These ecological features contribute to the continuation and maintenance of knowledge and practices related to the use of plants. Methods: Fieldwork was conducted between September 2014 and August 2015. Forty five informants from three rural localities situated along the Parana River participated in an ethno-classification task. For the classification event, photographs of 30 medicinal and edible plants were chosen, specifically those yielding the highest frequency of mention among the members of that community (based on data obtained in the first stage of research in 2014). Variation in local plant classifications was examined and compared using principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Results: We found that people classify plants according to application or use (primarily medicinal, to a lesser extent as edible). Morphology is rarely taken into account, even for very similar and closely-related species such as varieties of palms. In light of our findings, we highlight a dominant functionality model at work in the process of plant cognition and classification among farmers of Paraguayan origin. Salient cultural beliefs and practices associated with rural Paraguayan plant-based medicine are described. Additionally, the manner by which residents’ concepts of plants articulate with local folk epistemology is discussed. Conclusions: Culturally constructed use patterns ultimately override morphological variables in rural Paraguayans’ ethnobotanical classification.Antecedentes: Este trabajo se realizó con pequeños agricultores de origen paraguayo, que habitan en la provincia de Misiones, Argentina. Los criollos (mestizos) en su mayoría provienen de departamentos ubicados al oriente del Paraguay, donde el clima y la flora presentan características similares a la provincia de Misiones. Estas características ecológicas contribuyen a la continuación y el mantenimiento de los conocimientos y las prácticas relacionados al uso de las plantas. Métodos El trabajo de campo se realizó entre septiembre de 2014 y agosto de 2015. En la etnoclasificación participaron 45 informantes, provenientes de tres localidades rurales, situadas a lo largo del río Paraná, frontera entre los dos países. Para la clasificación se utilizaron imágenes fotográficas de 30 especies -comestibles y medicinales- preseleccionadas como las de mayor frecuencia de mención entre los habitantes de la región (a partir de los datos obtenidos en una primera etapa de investigación en el año 2014). Por medio del análisis de componentes principales y el análisis de agrupamiento (cluster) se contrastaron y compararon las variaciones en las etnoclasificaciones locales de plantas. Resultados Se encontró que los pobladores clasifican sus plantas según su aplicación y uso (mayormente asociadas a la categoría medicinal y en menor medida a la comestible). Mientras, la morfología rara vez se tiene en cuenta, incluso en aquellas especies muy similares y estrechamente relacionadas como las palmeras. A la luz de los hallazgos, se destaca un modelo de funcionalidad dominante en el proceso de cognición y de clasificación de las plantas entre los agricultores de origen paraguayo. Se describen las principales creencias y prácticas culturales asociadas a la medicina rural paraguaya. Adicionalmente, se discuten algunos de los conceptos de las plantas que mantienen los paraguayos y su articulación con la epistemología local. Conclusiones En la clasificación etnobotánica de los pobladores de origen paraguayo los patrones de uso construidos culturalmente tienen mayor peso que las variables morfológicas.Fil: Kujawska, Monika. University Of Lodz; ArgentinaFil: Jiménez Escobar, Néstor David. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Antropología de Córdoba. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Filosofía y Humanidades. Instituto de Antropología de Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Nolan, Justin M.. University Of Arkansas; Estados UnidosFil: Arias Mutis, Daniel. University of Groningen; Países Bajo

A new scoring system in Cystic Fibrosis: statistical tools for database analysis – a preliminary report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cystic fibrosis is the most common fatal genetic disorder in the Caucasian population. Scoring systems for assessment of Cystic fibrosis disease severity have been used for almost 50 years, without being adapted to the milder phenotype of the disease in the 21^stcentury. The aim of this current project is to develop a new scoring system using a database and employing various statistical tools. This study protocol reports the development of the statistical tools in order to create such a scoring system.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The evaluation is based on the Cystic Fibrosis database from the cohort at the Royal Children's Hospital in Melbourne. Initially, unsupervised clustering of the all data records was performed using a range of clustering algorithms. In particular incremental clustering algorithms were used. The clusters obtained were characterised using rules from decision trees and the results examined by clinicians. In order to obtain a clearer definition of classes expert opinion of each individual's clinical severity was sought. After data preparation including expert-opinion of an individual's clinical severity on a 3 point-scale (mild, moderate and severe disease), two multivariate techniques were used throughout the analysis to establish a method that would have a better success in feature selection and model derivation: 'Canonical Analysis of Principal Coordinates' and 'Linear Discriminant Analysis'. A 3-step procedure was performed with (1) selection of features, (2) extracting 5 severity classes out of a 3 severity class as defined per expert-opinion and (3) establishment of calibration datasets.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>(1) Feature selection: CAP has a more effective "modelling" focus than DA.</p> <p>(2) Extraction of 5 severity classes: after variables were identified as important in discriminating contiguous CF severity groups on the 3-point scale as mild/moderate and moderate/severe, Discriminant Function (DF) was used to determine the new groups mild, intermediate moderate, moderate, intermediate severe and severe disease. (3) Generated confusion tables showed a misclassification rate of 19.1% for males and 16.5% for females, with a majority of misallocations into adjacent severity classes particularly for males.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our preliminary data show that using CAP for detection of selection features and Linear DA to derive the actual model in a CF database might be helpful in developing a scoring system. However, there are several limitations, particularly more data entry points are needed to finalize a score and the statistical tools have further to be refined and validated, with re-running the statistical methods in the larger dataset.</p

Membrane Sealant Poloxamer P188 Protects Against Isoproterenol Induced Cardiomyopathy in Dystrophin Deficient Mice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cardiomyopathy in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is an increasing cause of death in patients. The absence of dystrophin leads to loss of membrane integrity, cell death and fibrosis in cardiac muscle. Treatment of cardiomyocyte membrane instability could help prevent cardiomyopathy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three month old female mdx mice were exposed to the β₁receptor agonist isoproterenol subcutaneously and treated with the non-ionic tri-block copolymer Poloxamer P188 (P188) (460 mg/kg/dose i.p. daily). Cardiac function was assessed using high frequency echocardiography. Tissue was evaluated with Evans Blue Dye (EBD) and picrosirius red staining.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>BL10 control mice tolerated 30 mg/kg/day of isoproterenol for 4 weeks while death occurred in mdx mice at 30, 15, 10, 5 and 1 mg/kg/day within 24 hours. Mdx mice tolerated a low dose of 0.5 mg/kg/day. Isoproterenol exposed mdx mice showed significantly increased heart rates (p < 0.02) and cardiac fibrosis (p < 0.01) over 4 weeks compared to unexposed controls. P188 treatment of mdx mice significantly increased heart rate (median 593 vs. 667 bpm; p < 0.001) after 2 weeks and prevented a decrease in cardiac function in isoproterenol exposed mice (Shortening Fraction = 46 ± 6% vs. 35 ± 6%; p = 0.007) after 4 weeks. P188 treated mdx mice did not show significant differences in cardiac fibrosis, but demonstrated significantly increased EBD positive fibers.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This model suggests that chronic intermittent intraperitoneal P188 treatment can prevent isoproterenol induced cardiomyopathy in dystrophin deficient mdx mice.</p

Hip abduction weakness in elite junior footballers is common but easy to correct quickly: a prospective sports team cohort based study

Background: Hip abduction weakness has never been documented on a population basis as a common finding in a healthy group of athletes and would not normally be found in an elite adolescent athlete. This study aimed to show that hip abduction weakness not only occurs in this group but also is common and easy to correct with an unsupervised home based program. Methods: A prospective sports team cohort based study was performed with thirty elite adolescent under-17 Australian Rules Footballers in the Australian Institute of Sport/Australian Football League Under-17 training academy. The players had their hip abduction performance assessed and were then instructed in a hip abduction muscle training exercise. This was performed on a daily basis for two months and then they were reassessed.Results: The results showed 14 of 28 athletes who completed the protocol had marked weakness or a side-to-side difference of more than 25% at baseline. Two months later ten players recorded an improvement of ≥ 80% in their recorded scores. The mean muscle performance on the right side improved from 151 Newton (N) to 202 N (p<0.001) while on the left, the recorded results improved from 158 N to 223 N (p<0.001). Conclusions: The baseline values show widespread profound deficiencies in hip abduction performance not previously reported. Very large performance increases can be achieved, unsupervised, in a short period of time to potentially allow large clinically significant gains. This assessment should be an integral part of preparticipation screening and assessed in those with lower limb injuries. This particular exercise should be used clinically and more research is needed to determine its injury prevention and performance enhancement implications

Extensive Copy-Number Variation of Young Genes across Stickleback Populations

MM received funding from the Max Planck innovation funds for this project. PGDF was supported by a Marie Curie European Reintegration Grant (proposal nr 270891). CE was supported by German Science Foundation grants (DFG, EI 841/4-1 and EI 841/6-1). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

The Formation and Evolution of the First Massive Black Holes

The first massive astrophysical black holes likely formed at high redshifts (z>10) at the centers of low mass (~10^6 Msun) dark matter concentrations. These black holes grow by mergers and gas accretion, evolve into the population of bright quasars observed at lower redshifts, and eventually leave the supermassive black hole remnants that are ubiquitous at the centers of galaxies in the nearby universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the formation of the earliest seed black holes are poorly understood. The purpose of this review is threefold: (1) to describe theoretical expectations for the formation and growth of the earliest black holes within the general paradigm of hierarchical cold dark matter cosmologies, (2) to summarize several relevant recent observations that have implications for the formation of the earliest black holes, and (3) to look into the future and assess the power of forthcoming observations to probe the physics of the first active galactic nuclei.Comment: 39 pages, review for "Supermassive Black Holes in the Distant Universe", Ed. A. J. Barger, Kluwer Academic Publisher

Discovery and characterization of a new family of lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases

Lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases (LPMOs) are a recently discovered class of enzymes capable of oxidizing recalcitrant polysaccharides. They are attracting considerable attention owing to their potential use in biomass conversion, notably in the production of biofuels. Previous studies have identified two discrete sequence-based families of these enzymes termed AA9 (formerly GH61) and AA10 (formerly CBM33). Here, we report the discovery of a third family of LPMOs. Using a chitin-degrading exemplar from Aspergillus oryzae, we show that the three-dimensional structure of the enzyme shares some features of the previous two classes of LPMOs, including a copper active center featuring the 'histidine brace' active site, but is distinct in terms of its active site details and its EPR spectroscopy. The newly characterized AA11 family expands the LPMO clan, potentially broadening both the range of potential substrates and the types of reactive copper-oxygen species formed at the active site of LPMOs