Forecast Rationality and Monetary Policy Frameworks: Evidence from UK Interest Rate Forecasts

This paper explores the heterogeneity and rationality of professional forecasts at both short and long forecast horizons. We employ disaggregated survey data for forecasts of three-month inter-bank rates and ten-year gilt yields for the period 1989-2006. We find evidence of heterogeneity among forecasters. Moreover, forecasts violate both the unbiasedness and orthogonality conditions of the rational expectations hypothesis. The majority of biased forecasts underestimate the future spot rate. The rationality of forecasts varies across maturities and forecast horizons with short horizon and short maturity forecasts exhibiting more rationality. It also varies across sub-periods corresponding to different monetary policy frameworks. We produce evidence indicating that both monetary policy actions and elements of communication policy have information content regarding the rationality of forecasts. Changes in official bank rates and disagreement, as recorded in the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee, influence the rationality of forecasts. The publication of inflation reports has no effect

The impact of deregulation and re-regulation on bank efficiency: evidence from Asia

Following the 1997 crisis, banking sector reforms in Asia have been characterised by the emphasis on prudential regulation, associated with increased financial liberalisation. Using a panel data set of commercial banks from eight major Asian economies over the period 2001-2010, this study explores how the coexistence of liberalisation and prudential regulation affects banks’ cost characteristics. Given the presence of heterogeneity of technologies across countries, we use a stochastic frontier approach followed by the estimation of a deterministic meta-frontier to provide ‘true’ estimates of bank cost efficiency measures. Our results show that the liberalization of bank interest rates and the increase in foreign banks' presence have had a positive and significant impact on technological progress and cost efficiency. On the other hand, we find that prudential regulation might adversely affect bank cost performance. When designing an optimal regulatory framework, policy makers should combine policies which aim to foster financial stability without hindering financial intermediation

The rise of China in the international trade network: a community core detection approach

Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of static networks ranging from biology to computer and social sciences and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995-2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. Most importantly, we have a multilevel description of the evolution where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) tend to be correlated with the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members). In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a preferential attachment mechanism both inter- and intra- communities

Bank regulation and systemic risk: cross country evidence

Using data for banks from 65 countries for the period 2001–2013, we investigate the impact of bank regulation and supervision on individual banks’ systemic risk. Our cross-country empirical findings show that bank activity restriction, initial capital stringency and prompt corrective action are all positively related to systemic risk, measured by Marginal Expected Shortfall. We use the staggered timing of the implementation of Basel II regulation across countries as an exogenous event and use latitude for instrumental variable analysis to alleviate the endogeneity concern. Our results also hold for various robustness tests. We further find that the level of equity banks can alleviate such effect, while bank size is likely to enhance the effect, supporting our conjecture that the impact of bank regulation and supervision on systemic risk is through bank’s capital shortfall. Our results do not argue against bank regulation, but rather focus on the design and implementation of regulation

Financial freedom and bank efficiency: Evidence from the European Union

This paper investigates the dynamics between the financial freedom counterparts of the economic freedom index drawn from the Heritage Foundation database and bank efficiency levels. We rely on a large sample of commercial banks operating in the 27 European Union member states over the 2000s. After estimating bank-specific efficiency scores using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), we develop a truncated regression model combined with bootstrapped confidence intervals to test our main hypotheses. Results suggest that the higher the degree of an economy’s financial freedom, the higher the benefits for banks in terms of cost advantages and overall efficiency. Our results also show that the effects of financial freedom on bank efficiency tend to be more pronounced in countries with freer political systems in which governments formulate and implement sound policies and higher quality governance

Market structure, profits, and spreads in the Mexican banking industry

In this paper we consider two market power theories (the Structure-Conduct-Performance, or SCP, and Relative Market Power, RMP) and the Efficient Structure (ES) hypothesis to characterize empirically the Mexican banking industry over 1996-2003 and then use a similar framework to investigate the determinants of interest rate spreads. To our knowledge, this is the first study to carry out such an analysis of net interest rate margins for the Mexican banking sector. Our results seem to give only weak support to the traditional SCP paradigm in Mexican banking but also uncover evidence of strong relationships between profitability and the banks' capital ratios. Furthermore, we do not find evidence that concentration and market share are associated with high interest rate spreads, while our chosen proxy for inefficiency is found negatively and significantly related with both profits and spreads thereby giving support to the ES hypothesis. Overall, our findings suggest that alternative models that include efficiency be pursued in future research on profits and spreads in Mexican banking

Efficiency and productivity of Greek banks in the EMU era

We provide a characterization of the Greek banking system's efficiency and productivity under the new environment that the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) participation implies. We consider cost and profit efficiency as well as productivity change of commercial banks using the nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Malmquist Index. The period under study is 1998-2003 covering Greece's entry into the euro area in 2001 and the run-up to it. Moreover, enhanced competition along with lower inflation and interest rates has further motivated financial innovation and Off-Balance Sheet (OBS) business. Our findings suggest that cost efficiency has risen by 4.3% over the 6 years under study. Moreover, Greek banks seem to enjoy relatively high profit efficiency (on average 75%) showing an increase by 93% over 1998-2003. Similarly, productivity seems to have risen by 15% and this was mainly driven by the improvements in the performance of best-practice institutions. Our results do not show any role for OBS activities in Greek banks' efficiency. Finally, while the impact of profitability and size on efficiency and productivity yields mixed results, our empirical findings seem to corroborate previous studies in that controlling for risk preferences is important in determining bank efficiency

Pitching DEA against SFA in the context of Chinese domestic versus foreign banks

The primary motivation is to show how the efficient frontier methods data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) can be used synergistically. As part of the illustration, we directly compare locally incorporated foreign banks with Chinese domestic banks. Both DEA and SFA reveal that foreign banks are less efficient. DEA shows the main source of inefficiency for foreign banks as managing interest income, whereas domestic banks are inefficient in managing non-interest income and interest expense. SFA reveals contextual variables such as interbank ratio, loan-to-deposit ratio and cost-to-income ratio are significant in explaining inefficiency. The correspondence of rankings based on DEA vs. SFA is positive and moderate in strength but efficiency estimates do not belong to the same distribution. Using DEA and SFA side-by-side can encourage more rigorous and in-depth bank efficiency studies where each method’s limitation can be overcome by the other