Experimental and self-reported measures of risk taking and digit ratio (2D:4D): evidence from a large, systematic study

Using a large (n=704) sample of laboratory subjects, we systematically investigate the links between the digit ratio - a biomarker for pre-natal testosterone exposure - and two measures of individual risk taking: (i) risk preferences over lotteries with real monetary incentives, and (ii) self-reported risk attitude. The digit ratio (also called 2D:4D) is the ratio of the length of the index finger to the length of the ring finger, and we consider both hands’ digit ratios. Previous studies have found that the digit ratio correlates with risk taking in some subject samples, but not others. In our sample, we find that both the right-hand and the left-hand digit ratio are significantly associated with risk preferences: subjects with lower digit ratios tend to choose riskier lotteries. Neither digit ratio, however, is associated with self-reported risk attitude

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and hepatocellular carcinoma: Brazilian survey

OBJECTIVE: The majority of cases of hepatocellular carcinoma have been reported in individuals with cirrhosis due to chronic viral hepatitis and alcoholism, but recently, the prevalence has become increasingly related to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis around the world. The study aimed to evaluate the clinical and histophatological characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma in Brazilians' patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis at the present time. METHODS: Members of the Brazilian Society of Hepatology were invited to complete a survey regarding patients with hepatocellular carcinoma related to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Patients with a history of alcohol intake (>;20 g/day) and other liver diseases were excluded. Hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis was performed by liver biopsy or imaging methods according to the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases’ 2011 guidelines. RESULTS: The survey included 110 patients with a diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease from nine hepatology units in six Brazilian states (Bahia, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul). The mean age was 67±11 years old, and 65.5% were male. Obesity was observed in 52.7% of the cases; diabetes, in 73.6%; dyslipidemia, in 41.0%; arterial hypertension, in 60%; and metabolic syndrome, in 57.2%. Steatohepatitis without fibrosis was observed in 3.8% of cases; steatohepatitis with fibrosis (grades 1-3), in 27%; and cirrhosis, in 61.5%. Histological diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma was performed in 47.2% of the patients, with hepatocellular carcinoma without cirrhosis accounting for 7.7%. In total, 58 patients with cirrhosis had their diagnosis by ultrasound confirmed by computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. Of these, 55% had 1 nodule; 17%, 2 nodules; and 28%, ≥3 nodules. CONCLUSIONS: Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis is a relevant risk factor associated with hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with and without cirrhosis in Brazil. In this survey, hepatocellular carcinoma was observed in elevated numbers of patients with steatohepatitis without cirrhosis

Knowledge and innovation: The strings between global and local dimensions of sustainable growth

The modern growth literature pays much attention to innovation and knowledge as drivers of endogenous developments in a competitive open economic system. This paper reviews concisely the literature in this field and addresses in particular micro- and macro-economic interactions at local or regional levels, based on clustering and networking principles, in which sustainability conditions also play a core role. The paper then develops a so-called knowledge circuit model comprising the relevant stakeholders, which aims to offer a novel framework for applied policy research at the meso-economic level

Compulsory licensing and access to drugs

Compulsory licensing allows the use of a patented invention without the owner's consent, with the aim of improving access to essential drugs. The pharmaceutical sector argues that, if broadly used, it can be detrimental to innovation. We model the interaction between a company in the North that holds the patent for a certain drug and a government in the South that needs to purchase it. We show that both access to drugs and pharmaceutical innovation depend largely on the Southern country's ability to manufacture a generic version. If the manufacturing cost is too high, compulsory licensing is not exercised. As the cost decreases, it becomes a credible threat forcing prices down, but reducing both access and innovation. When the cost is low enough, the South produces its own generic version and access reaches its highest value, despite a reduction in innovation. The global welfare analysis shows that the overall impact of compulsory licensing can be positive, even when accounting for its impact on innovation. We also consider the interaction between compulsory licensing and the strength of intellectual property rights, which can have global repercussions in other markets beyond the South

Overconfidence, incentives and digit ratio

This paper contributes to a better understanding of the biological underpinnings of overconfidence by analyzing performance predictions in the Cognitive Reflection Test with and without monetary incentives. In line with the existing literature we find that the participants are too optimistic about their performance on average; incentives lead to higher performance; and males score higher than females on this particular task. The novelty of this paper is an analysis of the relation between participants’ performance prediction accuracy and their second to fourth digit ratio. It has been reported that the digit ratio is a negatively correlated bio-marker of prenatal testosterone exposure. In the un-incentivized treatment, we find that males with low digit ratios, on average, are significantly more overconfident about their performance. In the incentivized treatment, however, we observe that males with low digit ratios, on average, are less overconfident about their performance. These effects are not observed in females. We discuss how these findings fit into the literature on testosterone and decision making and how they might help to explain seemingly opposing evidence

Comparison Wage in Trade Union Decision Making

The starting point of this paper is the idea that trade unions and individual workers pay attention to wage settlements in similar sectors of the economy. The foundations of this concept can be found in other social sciences and also in the literature of psychological economics. However, it has not received much attention in connection to union decision making. This comparison or reference wage enters the decision making of the union (i.e. the union utility function). In this paper, we employ a union utility function which incorporates this concept. The analysis is conducted in a bargaining framework and the results show the effects on the optimal wage of important variables like comparison wage, unemployment benefit, union power and of the weight that the union places on the comparison wag

A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19

Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions1, with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2. In April 2020, an influential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations ('claims') detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms 'physical distancing' and 'social distancing'. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization

Selling Money on Ebay: A Field Study of Surplus Division

We study the division of trade surplus in a competitive market environment by conducting a natural field experiment on German eBay. Acting as a seller, we offer Amazon gift cards with face values of up to 500 Euro. Randomly arriving buyers, the subjects of our experiment, make price offers according to eBay rules. Using a novel decomposition method, we infer offered shares of trade surplus and find that the average share proposed to the seller amounts to 29%. Additionally, we document: (i) insignificant effects of stake size; (ii) poor use of strategically relevant public information; and (iii) behavioural differences between East and West German subjects