How Many Subpopulations is Too Many? Exponential Lower Bounds for Inferring Population Histories

Reconstruction of population histories is a central problem in population genetics. Existing coalescent-based methods, like the seminal work of Li and Durbin (Nature, 2011), attempt to solve this problem using sequence data but have no rigorous guarantees. Determining the amount of data needed to correctly reconstruct population histories is a major challenge. Using a variety of tools from information theory, the theory of extremal polynomials, and approximation theory, we prove new sharp information-theoretic lower bounds on the problem of reconstructing population structure -- the history of multiple subpopulations that merge, split and change sizes over time. Our lower bounds are exponential in the number of subpopulations, even when reconstructing recent histories. We demonstrate the sharpness of our lower bounds by providing algorithms for distinguishing and learning population histories with matching dependence on the number of subpopulations. Along the way and of independent interest, we essentially determine the optimal number of samples needed to learn an exponential mixture distribution information-theoretically, proving the upper bound by analyzing natural (and efficient) algorithms for this problem.Comment: 38 pages, Appeared in RECOMB 201

Fluoroquinolone resistance during 2000–2005 : An observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Moxifloxacin is a respiratory fluoroquinolone with a community acquired pneumonia indication. Unlike other fluoroquinolones used in our healthcare system, moxifloxacin's urinary excretion is low and thus we hypothesized that increased use of moxifloxacin is associated with an increase in fluoroquinolone resistance amongst gram negative uropathogens.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>All antibiograms for Gram negative bacteria were obtained for 2000 to 2005. The defined daily dose (DDD) for each fluoroquinolone was computed according to World Health Organization criteria. To account for fluctuation in patient volume, DDD/1000 bed days was computed for each year of study. Association between DDD/1000 bed days for each fluoroquinolone and the susceptibility of Gram negative bacteria to ciprofloxacin was assessed using Pearson's Correlation Coefficient, r.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the study period, there were 48,261 antibiograms, 347,931 DDD of fluoroquinolones, and 1,943,338 bed days. Use of fluoroquinolones among inpatients decreased from 237.2 DDD/1000 bed days in 2000 to 115.2 DDD/1000 bed days in 2005. With the exception of <it>Enterobacter aerogenes</it>, moxifloxacin use was negatively correlated with sensitivity among all 13 Gram negative species evaluated (r = -0.07 to -0.97). When the sensitivities of all Gram negative organisms were aggregated, all fluoroquinolones except moxifloxacin were associated with increased sensitivity (r = 0.486 to 1.000) while moxifloxacin was associated with decreased sensitivity (r = -0.464).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Moxifloxacin, while indicated for empiric treatment of community acquired pneumonia, may have important negative influence on local antibiotic sensitivities amongst Gram negative organisms. This effect was not shared by other commonly used members of the fluoroquinolone class.</p

Recovery from Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms: A Qualitative Study of Attributions in Survivors of War

This study was funded by a grant from the European Commission, contract number INCO-CT-2004-50917

Resilience in the Face of Disaster: Prevalence and Longitudinal Course of Mental Disorders following Hurricane Ike

Objectives: Natural disasters may increase risk for a broad range of psychiatric disorders, both in the short- and in the medium-term. We sought to determine the prevalence and longitudinal course of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), panic disorder (PD), depression, and suicidality in the first 18 months after Hurricane Ike. Methods: Six hundred fifty-eight adults representative of Galveston and Chambers Counties, Texas participated in a random, population-based survey. The initial assessment was conducted 2 to 5 months after Hurricane Ike struck Galveston Bay on September 13, 2008. Follow-up assessments were conducted at 5 to 9 and 14 to 18 months after Hurricane Ike. Results: Past-month prevalence of any mental disorder (20.6% to 10.9%) and hurricane-related PTSD (6.9% to 2.5%) decreased over time. Past-month prevalence of PTSD related to a non-disaster traumatic event (5.8% to 7.1%), GAD (3.1% to 1.8%), PD (0.8% to 0.7%), depression (5.0% to 5.6%), and suicidality (2.6% to 4.2%) remained relatively stable over time. Conclusions: PTSD, both due to the hurricane and due to other traumatic events, was the most prevalent psychiatric disorder 2 to 5 months after Hurricane Ike. Prevalence of psychiatric disorders declined rapidly over time, suggesting that the vast majority of individuals exposed to this natural disaster ‘bounced back’ and were resilient to long-term mental health consequences of this large-scale traumatic event

Impact of resilience enhancing programs on youth surviving the Beslan school siege

The objective of this study was to evaluate a resilience-enhancing program for youth (mean age = 13.32 years) from Beslan, North Ossetia, in the Russian Federation. The program, offered in the summer of 2006, combined recreation, sport, and psychosocial rehabilitation activities for 94 participants, 46 of who were taken hostage in the 2004 school tragedy and experienced those events first hand. Self-reported resilience, as measured by the CD-RISC, was compared within subjects at the study baseline and at two follow-up assessments: immediately after the program and 6 months later. We also compared changes in resilience levels across groups that differed in their traumatic experiences. The results indicate a significant intra-participant mean increase in resilience at both follow-up assessments, and greater self-reported improvements in resilience processes for participants who experienced more trauma events

War and Bereavement: Consequences for Mental and Physical Distress

Background: Little is known about the long-term impact of the killing of a parent in childhood or adolescence during war on distress and disability in young adulthood. This study assessed current prevalence rates of mental disorders and levels of dysfunction among young adults who had lost their father due to war-related violence in childhood or adolescence. Methods: 179 bereaved young adults and 175 non-bereaved young adults were interviewed a decade after experiencing the war in Kosovo. Prevalence rates of Major Depressive Episode (MDE), anxiety, and substance use disorders, and current suicide risk were assessed using the Mini–International Neuropsychiatric Interview. The syndrome of Prolonged Grief Disorder (PGD) was assessed with the Prolonged Grief Disorder Interview (PG-13). Somatic symptoms were measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire. General health distress was assessed with the General Health Questionnaire. Findings: Bereaved participants were significantly more likely to suffer from either MDE or any anxiety disorder than nonbereaved participants (58.7 % vs. 40%). Among bereaved participants, 39.7 % met criteria for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, 34.6 % for PGD, and 22.3 % for MDE. Bereaved participants with PGD were more likely to suffer from MDE, any anxiety disorder, or current suicide risk than bereaved participants without PGD. Furthermore, these participants reported significantly greater physical distress than bereaved participants without PGD. Conclusion: War-related loss during middle childhood and adolescence presents significant risk for adverse mental healt

Dispelling urban myths about default uncertainty factors in chemical risk assessment - Sufficient protection against mixture effects?

© 2013 Martin et al.; licensee BioMed Central LtdThis article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Assessing the detrimental health effects of chemicals requires the extrapolation of experimental data in animals to human populations. This is achieved by applying a default uncertainty factor of 100 to doses not found to be associated with observable effects in laboratory animals. It is commonly assumed that the toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic sub-components of this default uncertainty factor represent worst-case scenarios and that the multiplication of those components yields conservative estimates of safe levels for humans. It is sometimes claimed that this conservatism also offers adequate protection from mixture effects. By analysing the evolution of uncertainty factors from a historical perspective, we expose that the default factor and its sub-components are intended to represent adequate rather than worst-case scenarios. The intention of using assessment factors for mixture effects was abandoned thirty years ago. It is also often ignored that the conservatism (or otherwise) of uncertainty factors can only be considered in relation to a defined level of protection. A protection equivalent to an effect magnitude of 0.001-0.0001% over background incidence is generally considered acceptable. However, it is impossible to say whether this level of protection is in fact realised with the tolerable doses that are derived by employing uncertainty factors. Accordingly, it is difficult to assess whether uncertainty factors overestimate or underestimate the sensitivity differences in human populations. It is also often not appreciated that the outcome of probabilistic approaches to the multiplication of sub-factors is dependent on the choice of probability distributions. Therefore, the idea that default uncertainty factors are overly conservative worst-case scenarios which can account both for the lack of statistical power in animal experiments and protect against potential mixture effects is ill-founded. We contend that precautionary regulation should provide an incentive to generate better data and recommend adopting a pragmatic, but scientifically better founded approach to mixture risk assessment. © 2013 Martin et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.Oak Foundatio

Solution conformation and flexibility of capsular polysaccharides from Neisseria meningitidis and glycoconjugates with the tetanus toxoid protein

The structural integrity of meningococcal native, micro-fluidized and activated capsular polysaccharides and their glycoconjugates – in the form most relevant to their potential use as vaccines (dilute solution) - have been investigated with respect to their homogeneity, conformation and flexibility. Sedimentation velocity analysis showed that the polysaccharide size distributions were generally bimodal with some evidence for higher molar mass forms at higher concentration. Weight average molar masses Mw where lower for activated polysaccharides. Conjugation with tetanus toxoid protein however greatly increased the molar mass and polydispersity of the final conjugates. Glycoconjugates had an approximately unimodal log-normal but broad and large molar mass profiles, confirmed by sedimentation equilibrium “SEDFIT MSTAR” analysis. Conformation analysis using HYDFIT (which globally combines sedimentation and viscosity data), “Conformation Zoning” and Wales-van Holde approaches showed a high degree of flexibility – at least as great as the unconjugated polysaccharides, and very different from the tetanus toxoid (TT) protein used for the conjugation. As with the recently published finding for Hib-TT complexes, it is the carbohydrate component that dictates the solution behaviour of these glycoconjugates, although the lower intrinsic viscosities suggest some degree of compaction of the carbohydrate chains around the protein

A prospective study of mental health care for comorbid depressed mood in older adults with painful osteoarthritis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Comorbid depression is common among adults with painful osteoarthritis (OA). We evaluated the relationship between depressed mood and receipt of mental health (MH) care services.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a cohort with OA, annual interviews assessed comorbidity, arthritis severity, and MH (SF-36 mental health score). Surveys were linked to administrative health databases to identify mental health-related visits to physicians in the two years following the baseline interview (1996-98). Prescriptions for anti-depressants were ascertained for participants aged 65+ years (eligible for drug benefits). The relationship between MH scores and MH-related physician visits was assessed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression, adjusting for confounders. For those aged 65+ years, logistic regression examined the probability of receiving <it>any </it>MH-related care (physician visit or anti-depressant prescription).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Analyses were based on 2,005 (90.1%) individuals (mean age 70.8 years). Of 576 (28.7%) with probable depression (MH score < 60/100), 42.5% experienced one or more MH-related physician visits during follow-up. The likelihood of a physician visit was associated with sex (adjusted OR women vs. men = 5.87, p = 0.005) and MH score (adjusted OR per 10-point decrease in MH score = 1.63, p = 0.003). Among those aged 65+, 56.7% with probable depression received <it>any </it>MH care. The likelihood of receiving <it>any </it>MH care exhibited a significant interaction between MH score and self-reported health status (p = 0.0009); with good general health, worsening MH was associated with increased likelihood of MH care; as general health declined, this effect was attenuated.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Among older adults with painful OA, more than one-quarter had depressed mood, but almost half received no mental health care, suggesting a care gap.</p