Estimating potential future (2030 and 2040) land use in the Bonsa catchment, Ghana, West Africa

This study combined logistic regression, Markov chain and the Dyna-CLUE models to simulate land use patterns in the Bonsa catchment of Ghana, West Africa. Historical model validation produced Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) statistics above 0.69; indicating a significant relationship between the driving factors and the land cover types, and overall accuracy of 71% as well as a Kappa statistic of 55%, indicating a moderate agreement between observed and simulated land uses. The statistics of the historical model were used to simulate three plausible future land use scenarios. The historical simulation revealed that increases in population density, proximity to roads and expansion of mines were the major drivers that significantly increased the probability of settlement expansion and deforestation. Simulations of future land use showed that settlement expansion and deforestation may increase by similar margins for all scenarios, but the increase in secondary forests may be higher for the economic growth and reforestation (EGR) scenario, compared to the economic growth (EG) and the business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. The mining areas may double in the future for all the scenarios, but shrubs/farms may increase in the BAU scenario, but reduce marginally in the EG and the EGR scenarios. The results of this study can be used to support land use planning and evaluation of the impacts of different future development pathways.Keywords: Bonsa catchment, deforestation, driving factors, Dyna-CLUE, land use, logistic regression, West Afric

Estimating total evaporation at the field scale using the SEBS model and data infilling procedures

The spatial representativeness of total evaporation estimates (ET) acquired from conventional approaches is limited, as these techniques generally provide site-specific values. The use of satellite earth observation has shown a great deal of potential in capturing spatially representative hydro-meteorological flux data and therefore represents a practical alternative for estimating ET. However, one of the challenges facing ET estimation using satellite earth observation data is the effect of clouds, which reduce the number of satellite images available for use. The objectives of this paper were firstly to validate satellite-derived ET estimates against estimates acquired from a surface renewal system and, secondly, to assess the feasibility of two infilling techniques to create a daily satellite-derived ET time series. The Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model was used to derive daily ET using MODIS imagery. Two infilling approaches, the Kcact approach and a linear interpolation approach, were evaluated by comparing their respective values against in-situ ET measurements, as well as SEBS ET estimates derived using MODIS. The results showed that SEBS ET estimates were approximately 47% higher and produced R2 and RMSE values of 0.33 and 2.19 mm∙d-1, respectively, compared to in-situ ET values. The ET estimates obtained by applying the Kcact approach and the linear interpolation approach compared favourably with the in-situ ET values, producing RMSE values of 0.9 mm∙d-1 and 0.6 mm∙d-1, respectively. However, comparisons of ET estimates acquired by applying the Kcact approach and the linear interpolation approach against the SEBS ET indicated a poor match, yielding RMSE values of 1.96 mm∙d-1 and 1.54 mm∙d-1, respectively.Keywords: satellite earth observation, SEBS Model, ET, infilling, surface renewal syste

Mapping of water-related ecosystem services in the uMngeni catchment using a daily time-step hydrological model for prioritisation of ecological infrastructure investment – Part 1: Context and modelling approach

South Africa is a semi-arid country which frequently faces water shortages, and experienced a severe drought in the 2016 and 2017 rainfall seasons. Government is under pressure to continue to deliver clean water to the growing population at a high assurance of supply. Studies now show that the delivery of water may be sustained not only through built infrastructure such as dams and pipelines, but also through investment in ecological infrastructure (EI). A daily time-step hydrological model was used to map areas which should be prioritised for protection or rehabilitation to sustain the delivery of water-related ecosystem services within the uMngeni catchment. We focused on three water-related ecosystem services, i.e.: water supply, sustained baseflow, erosion control/avoidance of excessive sediment losses. The two key types of degradation were modelled, namely, overgrazing and the invasion of upland areas by Black Wattle (Acacia mearnsii). This, Part 1 of a paper in 2 parts, provides a discussion on the role of EI in delivering water-related ecosystem services, describes the motivation for the study, and the methods used in modelling and mapping the catchment. The results of this modelling exercise are presented in Part 2, which also explores and illustrates the potential hydrological benefits of rehabilitation and protection of EI in the uMngeni Catchment.Keywords: water, ecosystem services, hydrological modelling, ecological infrastructure, water securit

Estimation of pedestrian walking speeds at controlled cross walks in Sri Lanka - a pilot study

This study aims to develop and test a methodology to extract pedestrian speed data from video footage and to find the pedestrian walking speed Sri Lankans. This study was done in the premises of the Faculty of Engineering, University of Ruhuna. Pedestrians were walking across a measured length was videotaped and the resulting footage was analysed after breaking the footage into frames. For each pedestrian walking event sex of the subject and the starting and ending clock times were recorded. Results showed that sex of the pedestrian did not have a significant effect on the walking speed of the pedestrians. Further, results showed that test subjects walked with a 15th percentile speed of 1.20 m/s. This walking speed is as par with the USA walking speed and faster than the Singaporeans’ walking speed when compared with the speeds reported in the previous studies. However it is noted that this walking speed may go down if we include more test subjects from elderly age category

A preliminary investigation of the water use efficiency of sweet sorghum for biofuel in South Africa

Sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) has been recognized globally as a potential biofuel crop for ethanol production. Sweet sorghum is a drought-tolerant crop that is widely adapted to different environmental growing conditions. The aim of this study was to determine the water use efficiency (utilisable yield per unit amount of water used) of drip-irrigated sweet sorghum (variety Sugargraze) under two different climatic conditions in South Africa. The sweet sorghum trials were conducted at Ukulinga research farm (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg) and Hatfield experimental farm (University of Pretoria, Pretoria), South Africa. Field trials were conducted in two successive seasons, viz., 2010/11 and 2011/12. Seasonal water use was estimated using eddy covariance and surface renewal methods. Fresh and dry aboveground biomass yield, stalk yield and stalk Brix % were measured at final harvest. Theoretical ethanol yield was calculated from fresh stalk yield and Brix %. Water use for the two growing seasons was 415 mm at Ukulinga and 398 mm at Hatfield. The ethanol water use efficiency (WUE) values for the sweet sorghum at Ukulinga were 0.27 and 0.60 L∙m-3 for 2010/11 and 2011/12 growing seasons, respectively. The ethanol WUE estimate of the sweet sorghum at Hatfield was 0.53 L∙m-3 for the 2010/11 season and 0.70 L∙m-3 for the 2011/12 growing season. WUE estimates of the sweet sorghum crop were higher for Hatfield compared to Ukulinga research farm. The results from this study showed that the WUE of sweet sorghum was sensitive to plant density. The WUE values confirm that sweet sorghum has high WUE under different climatic conditions.The research presented in this paper forms part of a solicited research project (Water use of cropping systems adapted to bio-climatic regions in South Africa and suitable for biofuel production) that was initiated by the Water Research Commission (WRC) of South Africa in Key Strategic Area on Water Utilisation in Agriculture).Water Research Commission (WRC) of South Africahttp://www.wrc.org.zaam2016Plant Production and Soil Scienc

Spatio-temporal assessment of beech growth in relation to climate extremes in Slovenia – An integrated approach using remote sensing and tree-ring data

Climate change is predicted to affect tree growth due to increased frequency and intensity of extreme events such as ice storms, droughts and heatwaves. Yet, there is still a lot of uncertainty on how trees respond to an increase in frequency of extreme events. Use of both ground-based wood increment (i.e. ring width) and remotely sensed data (i.e. vegetation indices) can be used to scale-up ground measurements, where there is a link between the two, but this has only been demonstrated in a few studies. We used tree-ring data together with crown features derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to assess the effect of extreme climate events on the growth of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Slovenia. We found evidence that years with climate extremes during the growing season (drought, high temperatures) had a lower ring width index (RWI) but we could not find such evidence for the remotely sensed EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index). However, when assessing specific events where leaf burning or wilting has been reported (e.g. August 2011) we did see large EVI anomalies. This implies that the impact of drought or heatwave events cannot be captured by EVI anomalies until physical damage on the canopy is caused. This also means that upscaling the effect of climate extremes on RWI by using EVI anomalies is not straightforward. An exception is the 2014 ice storm that caused a large decline in both RWI and EVI. Extreme climatic parameters explained just a small part of the variation in both RWI and EVI by, which could indicate an effect of other climate variables (e.g. late frost) or biotic stressors such as insect outbreaks. Furthermore, we found that RWI was lower in the year after a climate extreme occurred in the late summer. Most likely due to the gradual increase in temperature and more frequent drought we found negative trends in RWI and EVI. EVI maps could indicate where beech is sensitive to climate changes and could be used for planning mitigation interventions. Logical next steps should focus on a tree-based understanding of the short -and long-term effects of climate extremes on tree growth and survival, taking into account differential carbon allocation to the crown (EVI) and to wood-based variables. This research highlights the value of an integrated approach for upscaling tree-based knowledge to the forest level

Quantifying the effect of forest age in annual net forest carbon balance

Forests dominate carbon (C) exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere on land. In the long term, the net carbon flux between forests and the atmosphere has been significantly impacted by changes in forest cover area and structure due to ecological disturbances and management activities. Current empirical approaches for estimating net ecosystem productivity (NEP) rarely consider forest age as a predictor, which represents variation in physiological processes that can respond differently to environmental drivers, and regrowth following disturbance. Here, we conduct an observational synthesis to empirically determine to what extent climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, forest age and management influence the spatial and interannual variability of forest NEP across 126 forest eddy-covariance flux sites worldwide. The empirical models explained up to 62% and 71% of spatio-temporal and across-site variability of annual NEP, respectively. An investigation of model structures revealed that forest age was a dominant factor of NEP spatio-temporal variability in both space and time at the global scale as compared to abiotic factors, such as nutrient availability, soil characteristics and climate. These findings emphasize the importance of forest age in quantifying spatio-temporal variation in NEP using empirical approaches

Emerging Themes and Future Directions of Multi-Sector Nexus Research and Implementation

Water, energy, and food are all essential components of human societies. Collectively, their respective resource systems are interconnected in what is called the “nexus”. There is growing consensus that a holistic understanding of the interdependencies and trade-offs between these sectors and other related systems is critical to solving many of the global challenges they present. While nexus research has grown exponentially since 2011, there is no unified, overarching approach, and the implementation of concepts remains hampered by the lack of clear case studies. Here, we present the results of a collaborative thought exercise involving 75 scientists and summarize them into 10 key recommendations covering: the most critical nexus issues of today, emerging themes, and where future efforts should be directed. We conclude that a nexus community of practice to promote open communication among researchers, to maintain and share standardized datasets, and to develop applied case studies will facilitate transparent comparisons of models and encourage the adoption of nexus approaches in practice