Spurious Eccentricities of Distorted Binary Components

I discuss the effect of physical distortion on the velocities of close binary components and how we may use the resulting distortion of velocity curves to constrain some properties of binary systems, such as inclination and mass ratio. Precise new velocities for 5 Cet convincingly detect these distortions with their theoretically predicted phase dependence. We can even use such distortions of velocity curves to test Lucy's theory of convective gravity darkening. The observed distortions for TT Hya and 5 Cet require the contact components of those systems to be gravity darkened, probably somewhat more than predicted by Lucy's theory but clearly not as much as expected for a radiative star. These results imply there is no credible evidence for eccentric orbits in binaries with contact components. I also present some speculative analyses of the observed properties of a binary encased in a non-rotating common envelope, if such an object could actually exist, and discuss how the limb darkening of some recently calculated model atmospheres for giant stars may bias my resuts for velocity-curve distortions, as well as other results from a wide range of analyses of binary stars.Comment: 14 pp, 2 tables, 12 fig; under review by Ap

Using Scribes in Qualitative Research as an Alternative to Transcription

Transcribing qualitative data is resource-intensive. One less intensive alternative is scribing: the documenting of comprehensive notes, including verbatim quotes by an independent observer during an interview. However, the extent to which a comparable thematic analysis can be derived from scribed interview data relative to verbatim transcriptions of these same interviews has not been investigated. Thus, the purpose of this study is to test the number and content of themes derived from interview data, which had been scribed versus transcribed verbatim and to identify the time and cost differences (if any) between obtaining, processing, and analysing scribed data compared to transcribed data. Two modes of scribing were evaluated: in-person (i.e., from notes obtained during live interviews), and from video-recordings of these same interviews. There was high consistency in the number and content of themes (highest at subtheme level) derived from scribed versus transcribed data. Scribing produced significantly less data than transcribing and was economically superior. Thus, in the context of interview-based studies in which common ideas or meaning are sought through thematic analysis, scribing yields a similarly rich set of themes as transcribing, and hence, may offer a valid and feasible alternative when resources are limited

A One-Dimensional Volcanic Plume Model for Predicting Ash Aggregation

During explosive volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash is ejected into the atmosphere, impacting aircraft safety and downwind communities. These volcanic clouds tend to be dominated by fine ash (μm in diameter), permitting transport over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. However, field observations show that much of this fine ash aggregates into clusters or pellets with faster settling velocities than individual particles. Models of ash transport and deposition require an understanding of aggregation processes, which depend on factors like moisture content and local particle collision rates. In this study, we develop a Plume Model for Aggregate Prediction, a one-dimensional (1D) volcanic plume model that predicts the plume rise height, concentration of water phases, and size distribution of resulting ash aggregates from a set of eruption source parameters. The plume model uses a control volume approach to solve mass, momentum, and energy equations along the direction of the plume axis. The aggregation equation is solved using a fixed pivot technique and incorporates a sticking efficiency model developed from analog laboratory experiments of particle aggregation within a novel turbulence tower. When applied to the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, the 1D model predicts that the majority of the plume is over-saturated with water, leading to a high rate of aggregation. Although the mean grain size of the computed Redoubt aggregates is larger than the measured deposits, with a peak at 1 mm rather than 500 μm, the present results provide a quantitative estimate for the magnitude of aggregation in an eruption

Recent origin of low trabecular bone density in modern humans

Humans are unique, compared with our closest living relatives (chimpanzees) and early fossil hominins, in having an enlarged body size and lower limb joint surfaces in combination with a relatively gracile skeleton (i.e., lower bone mass for our body size). Some analyses have observed that in at least a few anatomical regions modern humans today appear to have relatively low trabecular density, but little is known about how that density varies throughout the human skeleton and across species or how and when the present trabecular patterns emerged over the course of human evolution. Here, we test the hypotheses that (i) recent modern humans have low trabecular density throughout the upper and lower limbs compared with other primate taxa and (ii) the reduction in trabecular density first occurred in early Homo erectus, consistent with the shift toward a modern human locomotor anatomy, or more recently in concert with diaphyseal gracilization in Holocene humans. We used peripheral quantitative CT and microtomography to measure trabecular bone of limb epiphyses (long bone articular ends) in modern humans and chimpanzees and in fossil hominins attributed to Australopithecus africanus, Paranthropus robustus/early Homo from Swartkrans, Homo neanderthalensis, and early Homo sapiens. Results show that only recent modern humans have low trabecular density throughout the limb joints. Extinct hominins, including pre-Holocene Homo sapiens, retain the high levels seen in nonhuman primates. Thus, the low trabecular density of the recent modern human skeleton evolved late in our evolutionary history, potentially resulting from increased sedentism and reliance on technological and cultural innovations

Integrated three-dimensional filter separates nanoscale from microscale elements in a microfluidic chip

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Expert-Augmented Machine Learning

Machine Learning is proving invaluable across disciplines. However, its success is often limited by the quality and quantity of available data, while its adoption by the level of trust that models afford users. Human vs. machine performance is commonly compared empirically to decide whether a certain task should be performed by a computer or an expert. In reality, the optimal learning strategy may involve combining the complementary strengths of man and machine. Here we present Expert-Augmented Machine Learning (EAML), an automated method that guides the extraction of expert knowledge and its integration into machine-learned models. We use a large dataset of intensive care patient data to predict mortality and show that we can extract expert knowledge using an online platform, help reveal hidden confounders, improve generalizability on a different population and learn using less data. EAML presents a novel framework for high performance and dependable machine learning in critical applications

The European Large Area ISO Survey II: mid-infrared extragalactic source counts

We present preliminary source counts at 6.7um and 15um from the Preliminary Analysis of the European Large Area ISO survey, with limiting flux densities of \~2mJy at 15um & ~1mJy at 6.7um. We separate the stellar contribution from the extragalactic using identifications with APM sources made with the likelihood ratio technique. We quantify the completeness & reliability of our source extraction using (a) repeated observations over small areas, (b) cross-IDs with stars of known spectral type, (c) detections of the PSF wings around bright sources, (d) comparison with independent algorithms. Flux calibration at 15um was performed using stellar IDs; the calibration does not agree with the pre-flight estimates, probably due to effects of detector hysteresis and photometric aperture correction. The 6.7um extragalactic counts are broadly reproduced in the Pearson & Rowan-Robinson model, but the Franceschini et al. (1997) model underpredicts the observed source density by ~0.5-1 dex, though the photometry at 6.7um is still preliminary. At 15um the extragalactic counts are in excellent agreement with the predictions of the Pearson & Rowan-Robinson (1996), Franceschini et al. (1994), Guiderdoni et al. (1997) and the evolving models of Xu et al. (1998), over 7 orders of magnitude in 15um flux density. The counts agree with other estimates from the ISOCAM instrument at overlapping flux densities (Elbaz et al. 1999), provided a consistent flux calibration is used. Luminosity evolution at a rate of (1+z)^3, incorporating mid-IR spectral features, provides a better fit to the 15um differential counts than (1+z)^4 density evolution. No-evolution models are excluded, and implying that below around 10mJy at 15um the source counts become dominated by an evolving cosmological population of dust-shrouded starbursts and/or active galaxies.Comment: MNRAS in press. 14 pages, uses BoxedEPS (included). For more information on the ELAIS project see http://athena.ph.ic.ac.uk

HIV in Children in a General Population Sample in East Zimbabwe: Prevalence, Causes and Effects

There are an estimated half-million children living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. The predominant source of infection is presumed to be perinatal mother-to-child transmission, but general population data about paediatric HIV are sparse. We characterise the epidemiology of HIV in children in sub-Saharan Africa by describing the prevalence, possible source of infection, and effects of paediatric HIV in a southern African population.From 2009 to 2011, we conducted a household-based survey of 3389 children (aged 2-14 years) in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe (response rate: 73.5%). Data about socio-demographic correlates of HIV, risk factors for infection, and effects on child health were analysed using multi-variable logistic regression. To assess the plausibility of mother-to-child transmission, child HIV infection was linked to maternal survival and HIV status using data from a 12-year adult HIV cohort.HIV prevalence was (2.2%, 95% CI: 1.6-2.8%) and did not differ significantly by sex, socio-economic status, location, religion, or child age. Infected children were more likely to be underweight (19.6% versus 10.0%, p = 0.03) or stunted (39.1% versus 30.6%, p = 0.04) but did not report poorer physical or psychological ill-health. Where maternal data were available, reported mothers of 61/62 HIV-positive children were deceased or HIV-positive. Risk factors for other sources of infection were not associated with child HIV infection, including blood transfusion, vaccinations, caring for a sick relative, and sexual abuse. The observed flat age-pattern of HIV prevalence was consistent with UNAIDS estimates which assumes perinatal mother-to-child transmission, although modelled prevalence was higher than observed prevalence. Only 19/73 HIV-positive children (26.0%) were diagnosed, but, of these, 17 were on antiretroviral therapy.Childhood HIV infection likely arises predominantly from mother-to-child transmission and is associated with poorer physical development. Overall antiretroviral therapy uptake was low, with the primary barrier to treatment appearing to be lack of diagnosis