Enhancing Bayesian risk prediction for epidemics using contact tracing

Contact tracing data collected from disease outbreaks has received relatively little attention in the epidemic modelling literature because it is thought to be unreliable: infection sources might be wrongly attributed, or data might be missing due to resource contraints in the questionnaire exercise. Nevertheless, these data might provide a rich source of information on disease transmission rate. This paper presents novel methodology for combining contact tracing data with rate-based contact network data to improve posterior precision, and therefore predictive accuracy. We present an advancement in Bayesian inference for epidemics that assimilates these data, and is robust to partial contact tracing. Using a simulation study based on the British poultry industry, we show how the presence of contact tracing data improves posterior predictive accuracy, and can directly inform a more effective control strategy.Comment: 40 pages, 9 figures. Submitted to Biostatistic

Malaria and land use: a spatial and temporal risk analysis in Southern Sri Lanka

Malaria / Waterborne diseases / Disease vectors / Land use / Water use / GIS / Statistical analysis / Risks / Mapping / Public health / Sri Lanka / Uda Walawe / Thanamalvila / Embilipitiya

Modelization of flow electrification in a polymer melt

Flow electrification of polymer melts is an important side effect of polymer processing. The studies dealing with this phenomenon are seldom and most of the scientific work has been focused on flow electrification of aqueous and insulating Newtonian liquids. From that prior art it is well established that the flow electrification in Newtonian liquids is a consequence of the formation of an ionic double layer. Convection of this layer induces the electrification of the liquid at the outlet of the pipe. In those models, the key parameters governing the flow electrification are thus the intrinsic electrical properties of the polymer and the flow characteristics. In this work, we reconsider the assumptions made previously and we propose a new approach to modelise the flow electrification in the particular case of non-Newtonian polymer materials in laminar flow conditions. We establish that, a key parameter for the electrification quantification in the polymer melt is the shape of the velocity profile. Additionally, in some cases, we show that a slip velocity at the polymer/die wall interface must be considered to describe accurately the electrification. As a consequence, we deduce that the slip velocity at the interface can be calculated by measuring the electrification: this work gives an alternative manner to measure the slip velocity during polymer flow

Community perceptions of a malaria vaccine in the Kintampo districts of Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa despite tools currently available for its control. Making malaria vaccine available for routine use will be a major hallmark, but its acceptance by community members and health professionals within the health system could pose considerable challenge as has been found with the introduction of polio vaccinations in parts of West Africa. Some of these challenges may not be expected since decisions people make are many a time driven by a complex myriad of perceptions. This paper reports knowledge and perceptions of community members in the Kintampo area of Ghana where malaria vaccine trials have been ongoing as part of the drive for the first-ever licensed malaria vaccine in the near future. METHODS: Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used in the data collection processes. Women and men whose children were or were not involved in the malaria vaccine trial were invited to participate in focus group discussions (FGDs). Respondents, made up of heads of religious groupings in the study area, health care providers, traditional healers and traditional birth attendants, were also invited to participate in in-depth interviews (IDIs). A cross-sectional survey was conducted in communities where the malaria vaccine trial (Mal 047RTS,S) was carried out. In total, 12 FGDs, 15 IDIs and 466 household head interviews were conducted. RESULTS: Knowledge about vaccines was widespread among participants. Respondents would like their children to be vaccinated against all childhood illnesses including malaria. Knowledge of the long existing routine vaccines was relatively high among respondents compared to hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenza type B vaccines that were introduced more recently in 2002. There was no clear religious belief or sociocultural practice that will serve as a possible barrier to the acceptance of a malaria vaccine. CONCLUSION: With the assumption that a malaria vaccine will be as efficacious as other EPI vaccines, community members in Central Ghana will accept and prefer malaria vaccine to malaria drugs as a malaria control tool. Beliefs and cultural practices as barriers to the acceptance of malaria vaccine were virtually unknown in the communities surveyed

Identification of Arabidopsis thaliana phloem RNAs provides a search criterion for phloem-based transcripts hidden in complex data sets of micro array experiments

Phloem-mobile signals play a major role in plant nutrition, development and communication. In the latter context, phloem-mobile RNAs have been associated with signalling between plant tissues. In this study, we focused on the identification of transcripts in the shoot phloem of the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. To isolate transcripts expressed in phloem parenchyma cells and in companion cell–sieve element complexes, we used laser microdissection coupled to laser pressure catapulting (LMPC). Mobile transcripts in sieve elements were isolated from leaf phloem exudates. After optimization of sampling and fixation, RNA of high quality was isolated from both sources. The modifications to the RNA amplification procedure described here were well suited to production of RNA of sufficient yield and quality for microarray experiments. Microarrays hybridized with LMPC-derived phloem tissue or phloem sap RNA allowed differentiation between phloem-expressed and mobile transcript species. Using this set of phloem transcripts and comparing them with microarrays derived from databases of light, hormone and nutrient treatment experiments, we identified phloem-derived RNAs as mobile, potential long-distance signals. Our dataset thus provides a search criterion for phloem-based signals hidden in the complex datasets of microarray experiments. The availability of these comprehensive phloem transcript profiles will facilitate reverse-genetic studies and forward-genetic screens for phloem and longdistance RNA signalling mutants

Stabilnost amlodipin besilata i atenolola u jednoslojnim i dvoslojnim tabletama

Multi-drug tablets of amlodipine besylate and atenolol were prepared as either mono-layer (mixed matrix) or bi-layer tablets containing each drug in a separate layer by using similar excipients and processing. Each tablet batch was packed in strip and blister packs and kept under accelerated temperature and humidity conditions. The stability of two tablet and packaging types was compared by HPLC analysis after 0, 1, 3 and 4.5 months and expressed as the content of intact amlodipine and atenolol. The content of atenolol did not decline regardless of tablet and packaging type. Amlodipine content in bi-layer tablets decreased to about 95 and 88% when packed in strips and blisters, respectively. When prepared as mono-layer tablets, the content decreased to 72 and 32%, respectively. The study revealed that the bi-layer tablet formulation was more stable than the mono-layer type. Further, the stability was increased when the tablets were packed in aluminium strips as compared to PVC blisters.Tablete s amlodipinom i atenololom pripremljene su ili u obliku jednoslojne tablete (miješani matriks) ili kao dvoslojne tablete (lijekovi u zasebnim slojevima) koristeći slične pomoćne tvari i uvjete tabletiranja. Tablete su pakirane u dvije vrste pakiranja, aluminijske folije (strip) ili PVC (blister) i čuvane u uvjetima ubrzanog starenja. Stabilnost je određivana pomoću HPLC metode nakon 0, 1, 2, 3 i 4,5 mjeseci i izražena kao sadržaj intaktnog lijeka. Sadržaj atenolola nije se značajno promijenio bez obzira na tip tablete ili pakiranje. Sadržaj amlodipina u dvoslojnim tabletama smanjio se na 95 % (tablete u strip pakiranju) i 88 % (tablete u blister pakiranju). Istodobno, u jednoslojnom tipu kombiniranih tableta sadržaj se smanjio na 72 % (strip pakiranje) i 32 % (blister pakiranje). Rezultati pokazuju da su dvoslojne tablete s amlodipinom i atenololom stabilnije od jednoslojnih. Štoviše, pakiranje tableta u aluminijsku foliju u obliku strip pakiranja povećava njihovu stabilnost u usporedbi s PVC pakirnim materijalom (blister)

Detecting change via competence model

In real world applications, interested concepts are more likely to change rather than remain stable, which is known as concept drift. This situation causes problems on predictions for many learning algorithms including case-base reasoning (CBR). When learning under concept drift, a critical issue is to identify and determine "when" and "how" the concept changes. In this paper, we developed a competence-based empirical distance between case chunks and then proposed a change detection method based on it. As a main contribution of our work, the change detection method provides an approach to measure the distribution change of cases of an infinite domain through finite samples and requires no prior knowledge about the case distribution, which makes it more practical in real world applications. Also, different from many other change detection methods, we not only detect the change of concepts but also quantify and describe this change. © 2010 Springer-Verlag

Primary skin fibroblasts as a model of Parkinson's disease

Parkinson's disease is the second most frequent neurodegenerative disorder. While most cases occur sporadic mutations in a growing number of genes including Parkin (PARK2) and PINK1 (PARK6) have been associated with the disease. Different animal models and cell models like patient skin fibroblasts and recombinant cell lines can be used as model systems for Parkinson's disease. Skin fibroblasts present a system with defined mutations and the cumulative cellular damage of the patients. PINK1 and Parkin genes show relevant expression levels in human fibroblasts and since both genes participate in stress response pathways, we believe fibroblasts advantageous in order to assess, e.g. the effect of stressors. Furthermore, since a bioenergetic deficit underlies early stage Parkinson's disease, while atrophy underlies later stages, the use of primary cells seems preferable over the use of tumor cell lines. The new option to use fibroblast-derived induced pluripotent stem cells redifferentiated into dopaminergic neurons is an additional benefit. However, the use of fibroblast has also some drawbacks. We have investigated PARK6 fibroblasts and they mirror closely the respiratory alterations, the expression profiles, the mitochondrial dynamics pathology and the vulnerability to proteasomal stress that has been documented in other model systems. Fibroblasts from patients with PARK2, PARK6, idiopathic Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, and spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 demonstrated a distinct and unique mRNA expression pattern of key genes in neurodegeneration. Thus, primary skin fibroblasts are a useful Parkinson's disease model, able to serve as a complement to animal mutants, transformed cell lines and patient tissues

HD 65949: Rosetta Stone or Red Herring

HD 65949 is a late B star with exceptionally strong Hg II at 3984[A], but it is not a typical HgMn star. The Re II spectrum is of extraordinary strength. Abundances, or upper limits are derived here for 58 elements based on a model with Teff = 13100K, and log(g) = 4.0. Even-Z elements through nickel show minor deviations from solar abundances. Anomalies among the odd-Z elements through copper are mostly small. Beyond the iron peak, a huge scatter is found. The abundance pattern of the heaviest elements resembles the N=126 r-process peak of solar material, though not in detail. We find a significant correlation of the abundance excesses with second ionization potentials for elements with Z > 30. This indicates the relevance of photospheric or near-photospheric processes. We explore a model with mass accretion of exotic material followed by the more commonly accepted differentiation by diffusion. That model leads to a number of predictions which challenge future work. Likely primary and secondary masses are near 3.3 and 1.6 M(solar), with a separation of ca. 0.25 AU. New atomic structure calculations are presented in two appendices.Comment: Accepted by MNRAS: 16 pages, 5 figure