Combined multiplex panel test results are a poor estimate of disease prevalence without adjustment for test error

This is the uncorrected proof.Data Availability: All data and code used for running experiments, model fitting, and plotting is available on a GitHub repository at https://bristol-vaccine-centre.github.io/testerror/. This is in the form of an R package providing methods to support the estimation of epidemiological parameters based on the results of multiplex panel tests and it is deployed on the Bristol Vaccine Centre r-universe (https://bristol-vaccine-centre.r-universe.dev/testerror). We have also used Zenodo to assign a DOI to the repository: doi:10.5281/zenodo.7691196.Multiplex panel tests identify many individual pathogens at once, using a set of component tests. In some panels the number of components can be large. If the panel is detecting causative pathogens for a single syndrome or disease then we might estimate the burden of that disease by combining the results of the panel, for example determining the prevalence of pneumococcal pneumonia as caused by many individual pneumococcal serotypes. When we are dealing with multiplex test panels with many components, test error in the individual components of a panel, even when present at very low levels, can cause significant overall error. Uncertainty in the sensitivity and specificity of the individual tests, and statistical fluctuations in the numbers of false positives and false negatives, will cause large uncertainty in the combined estimates of disease prevalence. In many cases this can be a source of significant bias. In this paper we develop a mathematical framework to characterise this issue, we determine expressions for the sensitivity and specificity of panel tests. In this we identify a counter-intuitive relationship between panel test sensitivity and disease prevalence that means panel tests become more sensitive as prevalence increases. We present novel statistical methods that adjust for bias and quantify uncertainty in prevalence estimates from panel tests, and use simulations to test these methods. As multiplex testing becomes more commonly used for screening in routine clinical practice, accumulation of test error due to the combination of large numbers of test results needs to be identified and corrected for.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)Medical Research Council (MRC)National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR

Genome sequence of the button mushroom Agaricus bisporus reveals mechanisms governing adaptation to a humic-rich ecological niche

Agaricus bisporus is the model fungus for the adaptation, persistence, and growth in the humic-rich leaf-litter environment. Aside from its ecological role, A. bisporus has been an important component of the human diet for over 200 y and worldwide cultivation of the "button mushroom" forms a multibillion dollar industry. We present two A. bisporus genomes, their gene repertoires and transcript profiles on compost andduringmushroomformation.The genomes encode a full repertoire of polysaccharide-degrading enzymes similar to that of wood-decayers. Comparative transcriptomics of mycelium grown on defined medium, casing-soil, and compost revealed genes encoding enzymes involved in xylan, cellulose, pectin, and protein degradation aremore highly expressed in compost. The striking expansion of heme-thiolate peroxidases and β-etherases is distinctive from Agaricomycotina wood-decayers and suggests a broad attack on decaying lignin and related metabolites found in humic acid-rich environment. Similarly, up-regulation of these genes together with a lignolytic manganese peroxidase, multiple copper radical oxidases, and cytochrome P450s is consistent with challenges posed by complex humic-rich substrates. The gene repertoire and expression of hydrolytic enzymes in A. bisporus is substantially different from the taxonomically related ectomycorrhizal symbiont Laccaria bicolor. A common promoter motif was also identified in genes very highly expressed in humic-rich substrates. These observations reveal genetic and enzymatic mechanisms governing adaptation to the humic-rich ecological niche formed during plant degradation, further defining the critical role such fungi contribute to soil structure and carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. Genome sequence will expedite mushroom breeding for improved agronomic characteristics

Comparison of CATs, CURB-65 and PMEWS as Triage Tools in Pandemic Influenza Admissions to UK Hospitals: Case Control Analysis Using Retrospective Data

Triage tools have an important role in pandemics to identify those most likely to benefit from higher levels of care. We compared Community Assessment Tools (CATs), the CURB-65 score, and the Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score (PMEWS); to predict higher levels of care (high dependency - Level 2 or intensive care - Level 3) and/or death in patients at or shortly after admission to hospital with A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza. This was a case-control analysis using retrospectively collected data from the FLU-CIN cohort (1040 adults, 480 children) with PCR-confirmed A/H1N1 2009 influenza. Area under receiver operator curves (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values were calculated. CATs best predicted Level 2/3 admissions in both adults [AUROC (95% CI): CATs 0.77 (0.73, 0.80); CURB-65 0.68 (0.64, 0.72); PMEWS 0.68 (0.64, 0.73), p<0.001] and children [AUROC: CATs 0.74 (0.68, 0.80); CURB-65 0.52 (0.46, 0.59); PMEWS 0.69 (0.62, 0.75), p<0.001]. CURB-65 and CATs were similar in predicting death in adults with both performing better than PMEWS; and CATs best predicted death in children. CATs were the best predictor of Level 2/3 care and/or death for both adults and children. CATs are potentially useful triage tools for predicting need for higher levels of care and/or mortality in patients of all ages

IRAK4 mediates colitis-induced tumorigenesis and chemoresistance in colorectal cancer

Aberrant activation of the NF-κB transcription factors underlies chemoresistance in various cancer types, including colorectal cancer (CRC). Targeting the activating mechanisms, particularly with inhibitors to the upstream IκB kinase (IKK) complex, is a promising strategy to augment the effect of chemotherapy. However, clinical success has been limited, largely because of low specificity and toxicities of tested compounds. In solid cancers, the IKKs are driven predominantly by the Toll-like receptor (TLR)/IL-1 receptor family members, which signal through the IL-1 receptor-associated kinases (IRAKs), with isoform 4 (IRAK4) being the most critical. The pathogenic role and therapeutic value of IRAK4 in CRC have not been investigated. We found that IRAK4 inhibition significantly abrogates colitis-induced neoplasm in APCMin/+ mice, and bone marrow transplant experiments showed an essential role of IRAK4 in immune cells during neoplastic progression. Chemotherapy significantly enhances IRAK4 and NF-κB activity in CRC cells through upregulating TLR9 expression, which can in turn be suppressed by IRAK4 and IKK inhibitors, suggesting a feed-forward pathway that protects CRC cells from chemotherapy. Lastly, increased tumor phospho-IRAK4 staining or IRAK4 mRNA expression is associated with significantly worse survival in CRC patients. Our results support targeting IRAK4 to improve the effects of chemotherapy and outcomes in CRC

The ethics of digital well-being: a multidisciplinary perspective

This chapter serves as an introduction to the edited collection of the same name, which includes chapters that explore digital well-being from a range of disciplinary perspectives, including philosophy, psychology, economics, health care, and education. The purpose of this introductory chapter is to provide a short primer on the different disciplinary approaches to the study of well-being. To supplement this primer, we also invited key experts from several disciplines—philosophy, psychology, public policy, and health care—to share their thoughts on what they believe are the most important open questions and ethical issues for the multi-disciplinary study of digital well-being. We also introduce and discuss several themes that we believe will be fundamental to the ongoing study of digital well-being: digital gratitude, automated interventions, and sustainable co-well-being

Transient Activation of Hematopoietic Stem and Progenitor Cells by IFNγ during Acute Bacterial Infection

How hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) respond to inflammatory signals during infections is not well understood. Our studies have used a murine model of ehrlichiosis, an emerging tick-born disease, to address how infection impacts hematopoietic function. Infection of C57BL/6 mice with the intracellular bacterium, Ehrlichia muris, results in anemia and thrombocytopenia, similar to what is observed in human ehrlichiosis patients. In the mouse, infection promotes myelopoiesis, a process that is critically dependent on interferon gamma (IFNγ) signaling. In the present study, we demonstrate that E. muris infection also drives the transient proliferation and expansion of bone marrow Lin-negative Sca-1+ cKit+ (LSK) cells, a population of progenitor cells that contains HSCs. Expansion of the LSK population in the bone marrow was associated with a loss of dormant, long-term repopulating HSCs, reduced engraftment, and a bias towards myeloid lineage differentiation within that population. The reduced engraftment and myeloid bias of the infection-induced LSK cells was transient, and was most pronounced on day 8 post-infection. The infection-induced changes were accompanied by an expansion of more differentiated multipotent progenitor cells, and required IFNγ signaling. Thus, in response to inflammatory signals elicited during acute infection, HSCs can undergo a rapid, IFNγ-dependent, transient shift from dormancy to activity, ostensibly, to provide the host with additional or better-armed innate cells for host defense. Similar changes in hematopoietic function likely underlie many different infections of public health importance

CD81 Is Essential for the Re-entry of Hematopoietic Stem Cells to Quiescence following Stress-Induced Proliferation Via Deactivation of the Akt Pathway

A protein that is thought to orchestrate the distribution of other signaling molecules on the cell membrane, CD81, is critical to maintaining the functional integrity of hematopoietic stem cells during their regeneration

Candida albicans Induces Selective Development of Macrophages and Monocyte Derived Dendritic Cells by a TLR2 Dependent Signalling

As TLRs are expressed by haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs), these receptors may play a role in haematopoiesis in response to pathogens during infection. We have previously demonstrated that in in vitro defined conditions inactivated yeasts and hyphae of Candida albicans induce HSPCs proliferation and differentiation towards the myeloid lineage by a TLR2/MyD88 dependent pathway. In this work, we showed that C. albicans invasive infection with a low virulence strain results in a rapid expansion of HSPCs (identified as LKS cells: Lin− c-Kit+ Sca-1+ IL-7Rα−), that reach the maximum at day 3 post-infection. This in vivo expansion of LKS cells in TLR2−/− mice was delayed until day 7 post- infection. Candidiasis was, as expected, accompanied by an increase in granulopoiesis and decreased lymphopoiesis in the bone marrow. These changes were more pronounced in TLR2−/− mice correlating with their higher fungal burden. Accordingly, emigration of Ly6Chigh monocytes and neutrophils to spleen was increased in TLR2−/− mice, although the increase in macrophages and inflammatory macrophages was completely dependent on TLR2. Similarly, we detected for the first time, in the spleen of C. albicans infected control mice, a newly generated population of dendritic cells that have the phenotype of monocyte derived dendritic cells (moDCs) that were not generated in TLR2−/− infected mice. In addition, C. albicans signalling through TLR2/MyD88 and Dectin-1 promotes in vitro the differentiation of Lin− cells towards moDCs that secrete TNF-α and are able to kill the microorganism. Therefore, our results indicate that during infection C. albicans can directly stimulate progenitor cells through TLR2 and Dectin-1 to generate newly formed inflammatory macrophages and moDCs that may fulfill an essential role in defense mechanisms against the pathogen

Neuroblastoma Cell Lines Contain Pluripotent Tumor Initiating Cells That Are Susceptible to a Targeted Oncolytic Virus

Although disease remission can frequently be achieved for patients with neuroblastoma, relapse is common. The cancer stem cell theory suggests that rare tumorigenic cells, resistant to conventional therapy, are responsible for relapse. If true for neuroblastoma, improved cure rates may only be achieved via identification and therapeutic targeting of the neuroblastoma tumor initiating cell. Based on cues from normal stem cells, evidence for tumor populating progenitor cells has been found in a variety of cancers.Four of eight human neuroblastoma cell lines formed tumorspheres in neural stem cell media, and all contained some cells that expressed neurogenic stem cell markers including CD133, ABCG2, and nestin. Three lines tested could be induced into multi-lineage differentiation. LA-N-5 spheres were further studied and showed a verapamil-sensitive side population, relative resistance to doxorubicin, and CD133+ cells showed increased sphere formation and tumorigenicity. Oncolytic viruses, engineered to be clinically safe by genetic mutation, are emerging as next generation anticancer therapeutics. Because oncolytic viruses circumvent typical drug-resistance mechanisms, they may represent an effective therapy for chemotherapy-resistant tumor initiating cells. A Nestin-targeted oncolytic herpes simplex virus efficiently replicated within and killed neuroblastoma tumor initiating cells preventing their ability to form tumors in athymic nude mice.These results suggest that human neuroblastoma contains tumor initiating cells that may be effectively targeted by an oncolytic virus