Volatility Measurement with Pockets of Extreme Return Persistence

Increasing evidence points towards the episodic emergence of pockets with extreme return persistence. This notion refers to intraday periods of non-trivial duration, for which stock returns are highly positively autocorrelated. Such episodes include, but are not limited to, gradual jumps and prolonged bursts in the drift component. In this paper, we develop a family of integrated volatility estimators, labeled differenced-return volatility (DV) estimators, which provide robustness to these types of Itˆo semimartingale violations. Specifically, we show that, by using differences in consecutive high-frequency returns, our DV estimators can reduce the non-trivial bias that all commonly-used estimators exhibit during such periods of apparent short-term intraday return predictability. A Monte Carlo study demonstrates the reliability of the newly developed volatility estimators in finite samples. In our empirical volatility forecasting application to S&P 500 index futures and individual equities, our DV-based Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model performs well relative to existing procedures according to standard out-of-sample MSE and QLIKE criteria

Chemical abundances and ages of the bulge stars in APOGEE high-velocity peaks

A cold high-velocity (HV, $\sim$ 200 km/s) peak was first reported in several Galactic bulge fields based on the APOGEE commissioning observations. Both the existence and the nature of the high-velocity peak are still under debate. Here we revisit this feature with the latest APOGEE DR13 data. We find that most of the low latitude bulge fields display a skewed Gaussian distribution with a HV shoulder. However, only 3 out of 53 fields show distinct high-velocity peaks around 200 km/s. The velocity distribution can be well described by Gauss-Hermite polynomials, except the three fields showing clear HV peaks. We find that the correlation between the skewness parameter ($h_{3}$) and the mean velocity ($\bar{v}$), instead of a distinctive HV peak, is a strong indicator of the bar. It was recently suggested that the HV peak is composed of preferentially young stars. We choose three fields showing clear HV peaks to test this hypothesis using the metallicity, [$\alpha$/M] and [C/N] as age proxies. We find that both young and old stars show HV features. The similarity between the chemical abundances of stars in the HV peaks and the main component indicates that they are not systematically different in terms of chemical abundance or age. In contrast, there are clear differences in chemical space between stars in the Sagittarius dwarf and the bulge stars. The strong HV peaks off-plane are still to be explained properly, and could be different in nature.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, published in ApJ. Updated to match the final ApJ published version. Minor revisions to the text and Figure

Workplace Credit-Building Counseling at a Midwest Employer: An Assessment of Take-Up, Engagement, and Outcomes

Employee financial wellness programs (EFWPs) are gaining in popularity as a strategy to address workers\u27 financial challenges and goals beyond offering health and retirement benefits. Most workers say they are stressed about their finances1 and a third are less productive at work because of this stress.2 Although employers are increasingly interested in offering EFWPs, little research has been conducted concerning these workplace financial products and services

Extraction of Electron Self-Energy and Gap Function in the Superconducting State of Bi_2Sr_2CaCu_2O_8 Superconductor via Laser-Based Angle-Resolved Photoemission

Super-high resolution laser-based angle-resolved photoemission measurements have been performed on a high temperature superconductor Bi_2Sr_2CaCu_2O_8. The band back-bending characteristic of the Bogoliubov-like quasiparticle dispersion is clearly revealed at low temperature in the superconducting state. This makes it possible for the first time to experimentally extract the complex electron self-energy and the complex gap function in the superconducting state. The resultant electron self-energy and gap function exhibit features at ~54 meV and ~40 meV, in addition to the superconducting gap-induced structure at lower binding energy and a broad featureless structure at higher binding energy. These information will provide key insight and constraints on the origin of electron pairing in high temperature superconductors.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

What is the 'problem' that outreach work seeks to address and how might it be tackled? Seeking theory in a primary health prevention programme

<b>Background</b> Preventive approaches to health are disproportionately accessed by the more affluent and recent health improvement policy advocates the use of targeted preventive primary care to reduce risk factors in poorer individuals and communities. Outreach has become part of the health service response. Outreach has a long history of engaging those who do not otherwise access services. It has, however, been described as eclectic in its purpose, clientele and mode of practice; its effectiveness is unproven. Using a primary prevention programme in the UK as a case, this paper addresses two research questions: what are the perceived problems of non-engagement that outreach aims to address; and, what specific mechanisms of outreach are hypothesised to tackle these.<p></p> <b>Methods</b> Drawing on a wider programme evaluation, the study undertook qualitative interviews with strategically selected health-care professionals. The analysis was thematically guided by the concept of 'candidacy' which theorises the dynamic process through which services and individuals negotiate appropriate service use.<p></p> <b>Results</b> The study identified seven types of engagement 'problem' and corresponding solutions. These 'problems' lie on a continuum of complexity in terms of the challenges they present to primary care. Reasons for non-engagement are congruent with the concept of 'candidacy' but point to ways in which it can be expanded.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> The paper draws conclusions about the role of outreach in contributing to the implementation of inequalities focused primary prevention and identifies further research needed in the theoretical development of both outreach as an approach and candidacy as a conceptual framework

Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk

As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high-risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disease-diversity relationships have mainly been studied in the context of species loss, but assemblage composition and disease risk (e.g. infection prevalence in wildlife assemblages) can change without extinction. Based on the predicted distributions and abundances of 4466 mammal species, we estimated global patterns of disease risk through the calculation of the community-level basic reproductive ratio R0, an index of invasion potential, persistence, and maximum prevalence of a pathogen in a wildlife assemblage. For density-dependent diseases, we found that, in addition to tropical areas which are commonly viewed as infectious disease hotspots, northern temperate latitudes included high-risk areas. We also forecasted the effects of climate change and habitat loss from 2015 to 2035. Over this period, many local assemblages showed no net loss of species richness, but the assemblage composition (i.e. the mix of species and their abundances) changed considerably. Simultaneously, most areas experienced a decreased risk of density-dependent diseases but an increased risk of frequency-dependent diseases. We further explored the factors driving these changes in disease risk. Our results suggest that biodiversity and changes therein jointly influence disease risk. Understanding these changes and their drivers and ultimately identifying emerging infectious disease hotspots can help health officials prioritize resource distribution.Peer reviewe

HBV-derived synthetic long peptide can boost CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses in chronic HBV patients ex vivo

Background. Vaccination with synthetic long peptides (SLP) is a promising new treatment strategy for chronic hepatitis B virus (CHB). SLP can induce broad T-cell responses for all HLA types. Here we investigated the ability of a prototype HBV-core (HBc)- sequence-derived SLP to boost HBV-specific T cells in CHB patients ex vivo. Methods. HBc-SLP was used to assess cross-presentation by monocyte-derived dendritic cells (moDC) and BDCA1+ blood myeloid DC (mDC) to engineered HBV-specific CD8+ T cells. Autologous SLP-loaded and toll-like receptor (TLR)-stimulated DC were used to activate patient HBc-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells. Results. HBV-SLP was cross-presented by moDC, which was further enhanced by adjuvants. Patient-derived SLP-loaded moDC significantly increased autologous HBcAg18-27-specific CD8+ T cells and CD4+ T cells ex vivo. HBV-specific T cells were functional as they synthesized tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interferon-gamma. In 6/7 of patients blockade of PD-L1 further increased SLP effects. Also, importantly, patient-derived BDCA1+ mDC cross-presented and activated autologous T-cell responses ex vivo. Conclusions. As a proof of concept, we showed a prototype HBc-SLP can boost T-cell responses in patients ex vivo. These results pave the way for the development of a therapeutic SLP-based vaccine to induce effective HBV-specific adaptive immune responses in CHB patients