Economic benefits of reducing aviation taxes in Latin America and the Caribbean.

IATA commissioned SEO Amsterdam Economics to prepare a study to independently quantify the economic benefits of reducing aviation taxes in Latin America and the Caribbean. The study provides evidence on the substantial economic benefits that a removal of aviation taxes and a reduction of passenger-based charges can bring to the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean for consumers and businesses. The study also shows that significant potential benefits of connectivity growth will be foregone for consumers and businesses if taxes remain at their current levels. Removing aviation taxes and reducing passenger based charges delivers immediate consumer benefits of 5.8-7.9 billion USD. By 2035, these consumer welfare benefits accumulate to 13.5-18.5 billion. In terms of macro-economic impact, removal of aviation taxes will results in a total GDP impact of 87 billion USD (+1.6%) and 912 thousand jobs (0.3% increase)

Evidence for enhanced neurobehavioral vulnerability to nicotine during periadolescence in rats

Epidemiological studies indicate that there is an increased likelihood for the development of nicotine addiction when cigarette smoking starts early during adolescence. These observations suggest that adolescence could be a “critical ” ontogenetic period, during which drugs of abuse have distinct effects responsible for the development of dependence later in life. We compared the long-term behavioral and molecular effects of repeated nicotine treatment during either periadolescence or postadolescence in rats. It was found that exposure to nicotine during periadolescence, but not a similar exposure in the postadolescent period, increased the intravenous self-administration of nicotine and the expression of distinct subunits of the ligand-gated acetylcholine receptor in adult animals. Both these changes indicated an increased sensitivity to the addictive properties of nicotine. In conclusion, adolescence seems to be a critical developmental period, characterized by enhanced neurobehavioral vulnerability to nicotine. Key words: nicotine; adolescence; intravenous; self-administration; acetylcholine receptor; PC

Impact of routine cryptococcal antigen screening and targeted pre-emptive fluconazole therapy in antiretroviral naive HIV-infected adults with less than 100 CD4 cells/μL: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening and targeted pre-emptive fluconazole in antiretroviral naive HIV-infected adults with less than 100 CD4 cells/μL seems promising to reduce the burden of cryptococcal meningitis (CM). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science and used random-effect meta-analysis to assess the prevalence of blood CrAg-positivity (31 studies; 35,644 participants) and asymptomatic CM in CrAg-positives, incidence of CM and all-cause mortality in screened participants. Pooled prevalence of blood CrAg-positivity was 6% (95%CI: 5 - 7) and asymptomatic CM in CrAg-positives was 33% (95%CI: 21 - 45). Incidence of CM without pre-emptive fluconazole was 21.4% (95%CI: 11.6 - 34.4) and 5.7% (95%CI: 3.0 - 9.7) with pre-emptive fluconazole initiated at 800 mg/day. In CrAg-positives, post-screening lumbar puncture prior to initiating pre-emptive fluconazole at 800 mg/day further reduced incidence of CM to null and showed some survival benefits. However, all-cause mortality remained significantly higher in CrAg-positives than CrAg-negatives: RR: 2.2 (95%CI: 1.7 - 2.9, p<0.001)

Wave packet propagation by the Faber polynomial approximation in electrodynamics of passive media

Maxwell's equations for propagation of electromagnetic waves in dispersive and absorptive (passive) media are represented in the form of the Schr\"odinger equation $i\partial \Psi/\partial t = {H}\Psi$, where ${H}$ is a linear differential operator (Hamiltonian) acting on a multi-dimensional vector $\Psi$ composed of the electromagnetic fields and auxiliary matter fields describing the medium response. In this representation, the initial value problem is solved by applying the fundamental solution $\exp(-itH)$ to the initial field configuration. The Faber polynomial approximation of the fundamental solution is used to develop a numerical algorithm for propagation of broad band wave packets in passive media. The action of the Hamiltonian on the wave function $\Psi$ is approximated by the Fourier grid pseudospectral method. The algorithm is global in time, meaning that the entire propagation can be carried out in just a few time steps. A typical time step is much larger than that in finite differencing schemes, $\Delta t_F \gg \|H\|^{-1}$. The accuracy and stability of the algorithm is analyzed. The Faber propagation method is compared with the Lanczos-Arnoldi propagation method with an example of scattering of broad band laser pulses on a periodic grating made of a dielectric whose dispersive properties are described by the Rocard-Powels-Debye model. The Faber algorithm is shown to be more efficient. The Courant limit for time stepping, $\Delta t_C \sim \|H\|^{-1}$, is exceeded at least in 3000 times in the Faber propagation scheme.Comment: Latex, 17 pages, 4 figures (separate png files); to appear in J. Comput. Phy

Design of a health-economic Markov model to assess cost-effectiveness and budget impact of the prevention and treatment of depressive disorder

Contains fulltext : 225612.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)Background/objective: To describe the design of 'DepMod', a health-economic Markov model for assessing cost-effectiveness and budget impact of user-defined preventive interventions and treatments in depressive disorders. Methods: DepMod has an epidemiological layer describing how a cohort of people can transition between health states (sub-threshold depression, first episode of mild, moderate or severe depression, (partial) remission, recurrence, death). Superimposed on the epidemiological layer, DepMod has an intervention layer consisting of a reference scenario and alternative scenario comparing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a user-defined package of preventive interventions and psychological and pharmacological treatments of depression. Results are presented in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and healthcare expenditure. Costs and effects can be modelled over five years and are subjected to probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: DepMod was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of scaling up preventive interventions for treating people with subclinical depression, which showed that there is an 82% probability that scaling up prevention is cost-effective given a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY. Conclusion: DepMod is a Markov model that assesses the cost-utility and budget impact of different healthcare packages aimed at preventing and treating depression and is freely available for academic purposes upon request at the authors.12 p

Frailty as a predictor of mortality in older adults within 5 years of psychiatric admission

Objectives Older adults with psychiatric disorders have a substantially lower life expectancy than age-matched controls. Knowledge of risk factors may lead to targeting treatment and interventions to reduce this gap in life expectancy. In this study, we investigated whether frailty independently predicts mortality in older patients following an acute admission to a geriatric psychiatry hospital. Methods Clinical cohort study with a 5-year follow-up of 120 older patients admitted to a psychiatric hospital between February 2009 and September 2010. On admission, we assessed frailty with a frailty index (FI). We applied Cox regression analyses with time to death as the dependent variable, to examine whether the FI was a predictor for mortality, adjusted for age, sex, level of education, multimorbidity (Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics, CIRS-G scores), functional status (Barthel Index), neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS), and severity of psychiatric symptoms at admission (Clinical Global Impressions Scale of Severity). Results Of the 120 patients, 63 (53%) patients were frail (FI >= 0.25), and 59 (49%) had died within 5 years. The FI predicted mortality with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.78 (95% CI, 1.06-2.98) per 0.1 point increase, independent of the covariates. Co-morbidity measured by the CIRS-G and functional status measured by the Barthel Index were not significantly associated. Conclusions Frailty was a strong predictor of mortality, independent of age, gender, multimorbidity, and functional status. This implies that frailty may be helpful in targeting inpatient psychiatric treatment and aftercare according to patients' life expectancy

Sociodemographic determinants of intraurban variations in COVID-19 incidence : the case of Barcelona

Background: Intraurban sociodemographic risk factors for COVID-19 have yet to be fully understood. We investigated the relationship between COVID-19 incidence and sociodemographic factors in Barcelona at a fine-grained geography.Methods This cross-sectional ecological study is based on 10 550 confirmed cases of COVID-19 registered during the first wave in the municipality of Barcelona (population 1.64 million). We considered 16 variables on the demographic structure, urban density, household conditions, socioeconomic status, mobility and health characteristics for 76 geographical units of analysis (neighbourhoods), using a lasso analysis to identify the most relevant variables. We then fitted a multivariate Quasi-Poisson model that explained the COVID-19 incidence by neighbourhood in relation to these variables. Results: Neighbourhoods with: (1) greater population density, (2) an aged population structure, (3) a high presence of nursing homes, (4) high proportions of individuals who left their residential area during lockdown and/or (5) working in health-related occupations were more likely to register a higher number of cases of COVID-19. Conversely, COVID-19 incidence was negatively associated with (6) percentage of residents with post-secondary education and (7) population born in countries with a high Human Development Index. Conclusion: Like other historical pandemics, the incidence of COVID-19 is associated with neighbourhood sociodemographic factors with a greater burden faced by already deprived areas. Because urban social and health injustices already existed in those geographical units with higher COVID-19 incidence in Barcelona, the current pandemic is likely to reinforce both health and social inequalities, and urban environmental injustice all together