Effect of fouling, thermal barrier coating degradation and film cooling holes blockage on gas turbine engine creep life

Gas turbines are sometimes operated in very hostile conditions due to service exigencies. These environments are characterized by degradation modes such as fouling, thermal barrier coating degradation and blockage of cooling holes which affect the creep life of engines. Therefore this paper presents a performance-based creep life estimation model capable of predicting the impact of different forms of degradation on the creep life of gas turbines. The model comprises performance, thermal, stress, and life estimation models. High pressure turbine blade was selected as the life limiting component of the gas turbine; therefore the integrated model was employed to investigate the effect of engine degradation on the creep life of a high pressure turbine blade of an aero derivative model gas turbine engine using a Creep Factor approach. The results shows that engine degradation affect the performance of gas turbine component which in turn affect their creep life

Sensitivity of Air Pollution-Induced Premature Mortality to Precursor Emissions under the Influence of Climate Change

The relative contributions of PM2.5 and ozone precursor emissions to air pollution-related premature mortality modulated by climate change are estimated for the U.S. using sensitivities of air pollutants to precursor emissions and health outcomes for 2001 and 2050. Result suggests that states with high emission rates and significant premature mortality increases induced by PM2.5 will substantially benefit in the future from SO2, anthropogenic NOX and NH3 emissions reductions while states with premature mortality increases induced by O3 will benefit mainly from anthropogenic NOX emissions reduction. Much of the increase in premature mortality expected from climate change-induced pollutant increases can be offset by targeting a specific precursor emission in most states based on the modeling approach followed here

Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024

Non-technical summary: We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary The IPCC Assessment Reports offer the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitute an unmatched resource for climate change researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding across diverse climate change research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesise essential research advances. We collected input from experts on different fields using an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of ten key research insights with high policy relevance. This year we focus on: (1) looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgency of phasing-out fossil fuels, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future of natural carbon sinks, (5) need for join governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in the science of compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We first present a succinct account of these Insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a report targeted to policymakers as a contribution to elevate climate science every year, in time for the UNFCCC COP. Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts 1. © 2023 Cambridge University Press. All rights reserved. There are 78 total authors to this piece. We have listed the first twelve. The available download is the accepted manuscript

COVID-19, A Global Health Concern Requiring Science-Based Solutions

Scientifically-based concrete action points to reduce the spread, lessen the impact, reduce the concerns of the wider population, and avoid further outbreaks for governments, organizations, and individuals are neededFinal Published versio

Effects of climatic factors on diarrheal diseases among children below 5 years of age at national and subnational levels in Nepal: an ecological study

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of diarrhea, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries such as Nepal, is temperature-sensitive, suggesting it could be associated with climate change. With climate change fueled increases in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation, the incidence of water and food-borne diseases are increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This national-level ecological study was undertaken to provide evidence linking weather and climate with diarrhea incidence in Nepal. METHOD: We analyzed monthly diarrheal disease count and meteorological data from all districts, spanning 15 eco-development regions of Nepal. Meteorological data and monthly data on diarrheal disease were sourced, respectively, from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Health Management Information System (HMIS) of the Government of Nepal for the period from 2002 to 2014. Time-series log-linear regression models assessed the relationship between maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and diarrhea burden. Predictors with p-values < 0.25 were retained in the fitted models. RESULTS: Overall, diarrheal disease incidence in Nepal significantly increased with 1 degrees C increase in mean temperature (4.4%; 95% CI: 3.95, 4.85) and 1 cm increase in rainfall (0.28%; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.41). Seasonal variation of diarrheal incidence was prominent at the national level (11.63% rise in diarrheal cases in summer (95% CI: 4.17, 19.61) and 14.5% decrease in spring (95% CI: -18.81, -10.02) compared to winter season). Moreover, the effects of temperature and rainfall were highest in the mountain region compared to other ecological regions of Nepal. CONCLUSION: Our study provides empirical evidence linking weather factors and diarrheal disease burden in Nepal. This evidence suggests that additional climate change could increase diarrheal disease incidence across the nation. Mountainous regions are more sensitive to climate variability and consequently the burden of diarrheal diseases. These findings can be utilized to allocate necessary resources and envision a weather-based early warning system for the prevention and control of diarrheal diseases in Nepal

Urban climate policy and action through a health lens-an untapped opportunity

Motivated by a growing recognition of the climate emergency, reflected in the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26), we outline untapped opportunities to improve health through ambitious climate actions in cities. Health is a primary reason for climate action yet is rarely integrated in urban climate plans as a policy goal. This is a missed opportunity to create sustainable alliances across sectors and groups, to engage a broad set of stakeholders, and to develop structural health promotion. In this statement, we first briefly review the literature on health co-benefits of urban climate change strategies and make the case for health-promoting climate action; we then describe barriers to integrating health in climate action. We found that the evidence-base is often insufficiently policy-relevant to be impactful. Research rarely integrates the complexity of real-world systems, including multiple and dynamic impacts of strategies, and consideration of how decision-making processes contend with competing interests and short-term electoral cycles. Due to siloed-thinking and restrictive funding opportunities, research often falls short of the type of evidence that would be most useful for decision-making, and research outputs can be cryptic to decision makers. As a way forward, we urge researchers and stakeholders to engage in co-production and systems thinking approaches. Partnering across sectors and disciplines is urgently needed so pathways to climate change mitigation and adaptation fully embrace their health-promoting potential and engage society towards the huge transformations needed. This commentary is endorsed by the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE) and the International Society for Urban Health (ISUH) and accompanies a sister statement oriented towards stakeholders (published on the societies’ websites)

Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis-Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model that simulated climate and chemistry effects of IPCC SRES emissions. We use EPPA to assess the human health damages (including acute mortality and morbidity outcomes) caused by ozone pollution and quantify their economic impacts in sixteen world regions. We compare the costs of ozone pollution under scenarios with 2000 and 2050 ozone precursor and greenhouse gas emissions (SRES A1B scenario). We estimate that health costs due to global ozone pollution above pre-industrial levels by 2050 will be $580 billion (year 2000$) and that acute mortalities will exceed 2 million. We find that previous methodologies underestimate costs of air pollution by more than a third because they do not take into account the long-term, compounding effects of health costs. The economic effects of emissions changes far exceed the influence of climate alone.United States Department of Energy, Office of Science (BER) grants DE-FG02-94ER61937 and DE-FG02-93ER61677, the United States Environmental Protection Agency grant EPA-XA-83344601-0, and the industrial and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Health Impacts of Catastrophic Climate Change: Expert Workshop. Avoid Dangerous Climate Change (AVOID)

Climate change is likely to have serious and significant impacts on human population health. The mechanisms by which climate change may affect health are becoming better understood. Current quantitative methods of estimating future health impacts rely on disease-specific models that primarily describe relationships between mean values of weather variables and health outcomes and do not address the impacts of extreme events or weather disasters. Extreme events have the potential to disrupt community function, which is of concern for decision-makers. Estimating the magnitude and extent of impacts from low probability high impact events is challenging because there is often no analogue that can provide relevant evidence and that take into account the complexity of factors determining future vulnerability and health impacts (the social determinants of health)