Modeling the Spatiotemporal Epidemic Spreading of COVID-19 and the Impact of Mobility and Social Distancing Interventions

On 31 December, 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes the COVID-19 disease, was first reported in Hubei, mainland China. This epidemics'' health threat is probably one of the biggest challenges faced by our interconnected modern societies. According to the epidemiological reports, the large basic reproduction number R0~3.0, together with a huge fraction of asymptomatic infections, paved the way for a major crisis of the national health capacity systems. Here, we develop an age-stratified mobility-based metapopulation model that encapsulates the main particularities of the spreading of COVID-19 regarding (i) its transmission among individuals, (ii) the specificities of certain demographic groups with respect to the impact of COVID-19, and (iii) the human mobility patterns inside and among regions. The full dynamics of the epidemic is formalized in terms of a microscopic Markov chain approach that incorporates the former elements and the possibility of implementing containment measures based on social distancing and confinement. With this model, we study the evolution of the effective reproduction number R(t), the key epidemiological parameter to track the evolution of the transmissibility and the effects of containment measures, as it quantifies the number of secondary infections generated by an infected individual. The suppression of the epidemic is directly related to this value and is attained when R<1. We find an analytical expression connecting R with nonpharmacological interventions, and its phase diagram is presented. We apply this model at the municipality level in Spain, successfully forecasting the observed incidence and the number of fatalities in the country at each of its regions. The expression for R should assist policymakers to evaluate the epidemics'' response to actions, such as enforcing or relaxing confinement and social distancing

Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks

Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction $q$ of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted $T$. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction $q > 0$ of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of $q \to 0$ the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure

Untargeted Metabolomics of Rind Essential Oils Allowed to Differentiate Two Closely Related Clementine Varieties

Chemical characterization of clementine varieties (Citrus clementina Hort. ex Tan.) essential oils (EO) can lead to variety identification and valorization of their potential use in food and aroma industries. The goal of this study was the chemometric discrimination between two very closely related and morphologically identical clementine varieties, Clemenules (NL) and Clemenpons (PO), based on their rind EO, to identify the differential volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and to determine their antioxidant capacity. EO rind volatile profile was determined by gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry in Citrus fruit at different ripening stages grown two independent years in two different locations. Untargeted metabolomics and multivariate data analysis showed an evolution of EO volatile profiles markedly parallel in both varieties. Although EO qualitative composition was identical in both varieties, PLS-DA allowed the identification of characteristic VOCs, quantitatively discriminating them along all the ripening process. PO showed higher accumulation of several mono- and sesquiterpene compounds such as trans-carveol, while NL showed higher levels of aldehyde and alcohol non-terpenoids like dodecanal. Both varieties evinced identical EO antioxidant activities, indicating a similar value for food preservation. Hence, untargeted metabolomics approach based on rind EO volatiles was revealed as a powerful technique able to differentiate between morphologically undistinguishable Citrus varieties

The physics of spreading processes in multilayer networks

The study of networks plays a crucial role in investigating the structure, dynamics, and function of a wide variety of complex systems in myriad disciplines. Despite the success of traditional network analysis, standard networks provide a limited representation of complex systems, which often include different types of relationships (i.e., "multiplexity") among their constituent components and/or multiple interacting subsystems. Such structural complexity has a significant effect on both dynamics and function. Throwing away or aggregating available structural information can generate misleading results and be a major obstacle towards attempts to understand complex systems. The recent "multilayer" approach for modeling networked systems explicitly allows the incorporation of multiplexity and other features of realistic systems. On one hand, it allows one to couple different structural relationships by encoding them in a convenient mathematical object. On the other hand, it also allows one to couple different dynamical processes on top of such interconnected structures. The resulting framework plays a crucial role in helping achieve a thorough, accurate understanding of complex systems. The study of multilayer networks has also revealed new physical phenomena that remain hidden when using ordinary graphs, the traditional network representation. Here we survey progress towards attaining a deeper understanding of spreading processes on multilayer networks, and we highlight some of the physical phenomena related to spreading processes that emerge from multilayer structure.Comment: 25 pages, 4 figure

Crocins with high levels of sugar conjugation contribute to the yellow colours of early-spring flowering

Crocus sativus is the source of saffron spice, the processed stigma which accumulates glucosylated apocarotenoids known as crocins. Crocins are found in the stigmas of other Crocuses, determining the colourations observed from pale yellow to dark red. By contrast, tepals in Crocus species display a wider diversity of colours which range from purple, blue, yellow to white. In this study, we investigated whether the contribution of crocins to colour extends from stigmas to the tepals of yellow Crocus species. Tepals from seven species were analysed by UPLC-PDA and ESI-Q-TOF-MS/MS revealing for the first time the presence of highly glucosylated crocins in this tissue. beta-carotene was found to be the precursor of these crocins and some of them were found to contain rhamnose, never before reported. When crocin profiles from tepals were compared with those from stigmas, clear differences were found, including the presence of new apocarotenoids in stigmas. Furthermore, each species showed a characteristic profile which was not correlated with the phylogenetic relationship among species. While gene expression analysis in tepals of genes involved in carotenoid metabolism showed that phytoene synthase was a key enzyme in apocarotenoid biosynthesis in tepals. Expression of a crocetin glucosyltransferase, previously identified in saffron, was detected in all the samples. The presence of crocins in tepals is compatible with the role of chromophores to attract pollinators. The identification of tepals as new sources of crocins is of special interest given their wide range of applications in medicine, cosmetics and colouring industries.The laboratory is supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion (BIO2009-07803) and participates in the IBERCAROT network (112RT0445). Dr. Ahrazem was funded by FPCYTA through the INCRECYT Programme. 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Age at menarche and lung function: a Mendelian randomization study.

A trend towards earlier menarche in women has been associated with childhood factors (e.g. obesity) and hypothesised environmental exposures (e.g. endocrine disruptors present in household products). Observational evidence has shown detrimental effects of early menarche on various health outcomes including adult lung function, but these might represent spurious associations due to confounding. To address this we used Mendelian randomization where genetic variants are used as proxies for age at menarche, since genetic associations are not affected by classical confounding. We estimated the effects of age at menarche on forced vital capacity (FVC), a proxy for restrictive lung impairment, and ratio of forced expiratory volume in one second to FVC (FEV1/FVC), a measure of airway obstruction, in both adulthood and adolescence. We derived SNP-age at menarche association estimates for 122 variants from a published genome-wide meta-analysis (N = 182,416), with SNP-lung function estimates obtained by meta-analysing three studies of adult women (N = 46,944) and two of adolescent girls (N = 3025). We investigated the impact of departures from the assumption of no pleiotropy through sensitivity analyses. In adult women, in line with previous evidence, we found an effect on restrictive lung impairment with a 24.8 mL increase in FVC per year increase in age at menarche (95% CI 1.8-47.9; p = 0.035); evidence was stronger after excluding potential pleiotropic variants (43.6 mL; 17.2-69.9; p = 0.001). In adolescent girls we found an opposite effect (-56.5 mL; -108.3 to -4.7; p = 0.033), suggesting that the detrimental effect in adulthood may be preceded by a short-term post-pubertal benefit. Our secondary analyses showing results in the same direction in men and boys, in whom age at menarche SNPs have also shown association with sexual development, suggest a role for pubertal timing in general rather than menarche specifically. We found no effect on airway obstruction (FEV1/FVC)