Initial distribution spread: A density forecasting approach

Ensemble forecasting of nonlinear systems involves the use of a model to run forward a discrete ensemble (or set) of initial states. Data assimilation techniques tend to focus on estimating the true state of the system, even though model error limits the value of such efforts. This paper argues for choosing the initial ensemble in order to optimise forecasting performance rather than estimate the true state of the system. Density forecasting and choosing the initial ensemble are treated as one problem. Forecasting performance can be quantified by some scoring rule. In the case of the logarithmic scoring rule, theoretical arguments and empirical results are presented. It turns out that, if the underlying noise dominates model error, we can diagnose the noise spread

Surface binding vs. sequestration; the uptake of benzohydroxamic acid at iron(III) oxide surfaces

Benzohydroxamic acid is shown to be an unexpectedly good ligand for iron(III) oxides, favouring surface attachment to the formation of trisbenzohydroxamato complexes, which are known to have very high thermodynamic stability in solution

‘Slappers like you don’t belong in this school’: the educational inclusion/exclusion of pregnant schoolgirls

Policy in England identifies pregnant schoolgirls as a particularly vulnerable group and emphasises the importance of education as a way of improving the life chances of those who become pregnant while young. This paper draws on repeat interviews conducted over a twelve-month period to compare and contrast the stories of four young women. The narratives show that despite a common policy framework, there is great variability between schools in staff attitudes towards and responses to pupil pregnancy which produce different accommodations and support for pregnant girls, and seem likely to produce very different outcomes. We mobilise Iris Marion Young’s five faces of oppression to conduct a second reading of the stories. This situates the specificity of the girls’ school experiences into a wider socio-cultural and economic framing and indicates what might be involved in actually initiating and implementing the kinds of changes that the first ‘face value’ reading suggests are necessary

Health inequalities, fundamental causes and power:Towards the practice of good theory

Reducing health inequalities remains a challenge for policy makers across the world. Beginning from Lewin’s famous dictum that “there is nothing as practical as a good theory”, this paper begins from an appreciative discussion of ‘fundamental cause theory’, emphasizing the elegance of its theoretical encapsulation of the challenge, the relevance of its critical focus for action, and its potential to support the practical mobilisation of knowledge in generating change. Moreover, it is argued that recent developments in the theory, provide an opportunity for further theoretical development focused more clearly on the concept of power (Dickie et al. 2015). A critical focus on power as the essential element in maintaining, increasing or reducing social and economic inequalities – including health inequalities – can both enhance the coherence of the theory, and also enhance the capacity to challenge the roots of health inequalities at different levels and scales. This paper provides an initial contribution by proposing a framework to help to identify the most important sources, forms and positions of power, as well as the social spaces in which they operate. Subsequent work could usefully test, elaborate and adapt this framework, or indeed ultimately replace it with something better, to help focus actions to reduce inequalities

Promoting socially just and inclusive music teacher education: Exploring perceptions of early-career teachers

Teacher education plays a significant role in influencing generations of future teachers. This article aims to explore the role of pre-service teacher education in promoting socially just and inclusive practices in music education. Six pre-service teachers were interviewed before graduating, and then again six months into their first year of teaching. The interviewees reflected on their understandings of what constitutes being inclusive in the music classroom and how these understandings have been influenced by their perceptions of both university and school experiences. The article provides insights into the ways that teacher education programmes might equip early-career teachers to engage in a variety of teaching practices that are socially just, within the music classroom

A Millennium Learning Goal for education post‐2015: a question of outcomes or processes

As the target year for the current Millennium Development Goal of universal completion of primary education approaches, three World Bank economists have proposed its replacement with a Millennium Learning Goal. This is part of a trend of increased privileging of learning outcomes. The proposal is assessed from the perspective of human rights-based and social justice conceptualisations of education quality. A Millennium Learning Goal may enhance information on inclusion, conceived as equal opportunity to achieve learning outcomes. However, there is a danger that it would be misused to generate high stakes tests that can be detrimental to the achievement of goals that are not readily measurable and hence to the relevance of education. It is argued that a process goal with qualitative targets for the assessment of learning, for the monitoring of educational processes and for the processes by which learning goals are determined would be more appropriate for the international level.As the target year for the current Millennium Development Goal of universal completion of primary education approaches, three World Bank economists have proposed its replacement with a Millennium Learning Goal. This is part of a trend of increased privileging of learning outcomes. The proposal is assessed from the perspective of human rights-based and social justice conceptualisations of education quality. A Millennium Learning Goal may enhance information on inclusion, conceived as equal opportunity to achieve learning outcomes. However, there is a danger that it would be misused to generate high stakes tests that can be detrimental to the achievement of goals that are not readily measurable and hence to the relevance of education. It is argued that a process goal with qualitative targets for the assessment of learning, for the monitoring of educational processes and for the processes by which learning goals are determined would be more appropriate for the international level

Monitoring of Farm-Level Antimicrobial Use to Guide Stewardship: Overview of Existing Systems and Analysis of Key Components and Processes

peer-reviewedThe acknowledgment of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) as a major health challenge in humans, animals and plants, has led to increased efforts to reduce antimicrobial use (AMU). To better understand factors influencing AMR and implement and evaluate stewardship measures for reducing AMU, it is important to have sufficiently detailed information on the quantity of AMU, preferably at the level of the user (farmer, veterinarian) and/or prescriber or provider (veterinarian, feed mill). Recently, several countries have established or are developing systems for monitoring AMU in animals. The aim of this publication is to provide an overview of known systems for monitoring AMU at farm-level, with a descriptive analysis of their key components and processes. As of March 2020, 38 active farm-level AMU monitoring systems from 16 countries were identified. These systems differ in many ways, including which data are collected, the type of analyses conducted and their respective output. At the same time, they share key components (data collection, analysis, benchmarking, and reporting), resulting in similar challenges to be faced with similar decisions to be made. Suggestions are provided with respect to the different components and important aspects of various data types and methods are discussed. This overview should provide support for establishing or working with such a system and could lead to a better implementation of stewardship actions and a more uniform communication about and understanding of AMU data at farm-level. Harmonization of methods and processes could lead to an improved comparability of outcomes and less confusion when interpreting results across systems. However, it is important to note that the development of systems also depends on specific local needs, resources and aims

Electronic state spectroscopy by high-resolution vacuum ultraviolet photoabsorption, He(I) photoelectron spectroscopy and ab initio calculations of ethyl acetate

Abstract: The high-resolution vacuum ultraviolet photoabsorption spectrum of ethyl acetate,C4H8O2, is presented over the energy range 4.5−10.7 eV (275.5−116.0 nm). Valence and Rydberg transitionsand their associated vibronic series observed in the photoabsorption spectrum, have beenassigned in accordance with new ab initio calculations of the vertical excitation energiesand oscillator strengths. Also, the photoabsorption cross sections have been used tocalculate the photolysis lifetime of this ester in the upper stratosphere(20−50 km). Calculationshave also been carried out to determine the ionisation energies and fine structure of thelowest ionic state of ethyl acetate and are compared with a newly recorded photoelectronspectrum (from 9.5 to 16.7 eV). Vibrational structure is observed in the firstphotoelectron band of this molecule for the first time