Global mean surface temperature response to large-scale patterns of variability in observations and CMIP5

Global mean surface temperature (GMST) fluctuates over decadal to multidecadal time-scales. Patterns of internal variability are partly responsible, but the relationships can be conflated by anthropogenically-forced signals. Here we adopt a physically-based method of separating internal variability from forced responses to examine how trends in large-scale patterns, specifically the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), influence GMST. After removing the forced responses, observed variability of GMST is close to the central estimates of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, but models tend to underestimate IPO variability at time-scales >10 years, and AMV at time-scales >20 years. Correlations between GMST trends and these patterns are also underrepresented, most strongly at 10- and 35-year time-scales, for IPO and AMV respectively. Strikingly, models that simulate stronger variability of IPO and AMV also exhibit stronger relationships between these patterns and GMST, predominately at the 10- and 35-year time-scales, respectively

Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges

Many scientific challenges remain for managing the risk of future ENSO impacts in countries like Australia that are strongly affected by ENSO event diversity

Tidal modulation of two-layer hydraulic exchange flows

Time-dependent, two layer hydraulic exchange flow is studied using an idealised shallow water model. It is found that barotropic time-dependent perturbations, representing tidal forcing, increase the baroclinic exchange flux above the steady hydraulic limit, with flux increasing monotonically with tidal amplitude (measured either by height or flux amplitude over a tidal period). Exchange flux also depends on the non-dimensional tidal period, γ, which was introduced by Helfrich (1995). When tidal amplitude is characterised by the barotropic flux amplitude, exchange flux is a monotonic function of γ as predicted by Helfrich (1995). However, the relationship between the (imposed) free surface amplitude and flux amplitude is complicated by reflections within the channel and by the baroclinic response of the two layer system, leading to a non-monotonic relationship between the height amplitude and γ

Open boundary conditions for nonlinear channel flow

Open boundary conditions are derived for the one-dimensional nonrotating two-layer shallow-water equations. The conditions are based on characteristics of the external and internal modes. It is possible to find exact nonlinear characteristic conditions for the external mode, as well as approximate nonlinear conditions for the internal mode. These conditions can also be linearised by Taylor expansion; the approximate linear conditions are similar to those used in several previous studies. Both of the nonlinear and linearised conditions perform well, indicating that either the nonlinear or linearised conditions may potentially be extended to the more general case of multi-layer flows

Sea level changes forced by Southern Ocean winds

On regional scales, changes in sea level are significantly affected by local dynamical changes. Westerly winds over the Southern Ocean have been strengthening and shifting southward in recent decades, and this change is projected to continue in the futur

Comparison of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability in CMIP5 Models and Observations

Low-frequency internal climate variability (ICV) plays an important role in modulating global surface temperature, regional climate, and climate extremes. However, it has not been completely characterized in the instrumental record and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. In this study, the surface temperature ICV of the North Pacific (NP), North Atlantic (NA), and Northern Hemisphere (NH) in the instrumental record and historical CMIP5 all-forcing simulations is isolated using a semiempirical method wherein the CMIP5 ensemble mean is applied as the external forcing signal and removed from each time series. Comparison of ICV signals derived from this semiempirical method as well as from analysis of ICV in CMIP5 preindustrial control runs reveals disagreement in the spatial pattern and amplitude between models and instrumental data on multidecadal time scales (>20 yr). Analysis of the amplitude of total variability and the ICV in the models and instrumental data indicates that the models underestimate ICV amplitude on low-frequency time scales (>20 yr in the NA; >40 yr in the NP), while agreement is found in the NH variability. A multiple linear regression analysis of ICV in the instrumental record shows that variability in the NP drives decadal-to-interdecadal variability in the NH, whereas the NA drives multidecadal variability in the NH. Analysis of the CMIP5 historical simulations does not reveal such a relationship, indicating model limitations in simulating ICV. These findings demonstrate the need to better characterize low-frequency ICV, which may help improve attribution and decadal prediction.U.S. National Science Foundation [AGS-1263225]; Australian Research Council6 month embargo; Published Online: 13 March 2017This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Sea level changes forced by Southern Ocean winds

On regional scales, changes in sea level are significantly affected by local dynamical changes. Westerly winds over the Southern Ocean have been strengthening and shifting southward in recent decades, and this change is projected to continue in the future. This study applies wind forcing anomalies to an eddy-permitting ocean model to study the dynamical response to a Southern Hemisphere westerly wind increase and/or southward shift. It is shown that the applied wind anomalies result in a change in sea surface slope across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current such that a fall in sea level occurs around the Antarctic continental margin. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and regional sea level are particularly sensitive to latitudinal shifts in the wind, with a much more muted response found when only wind strengthening is applied. In addition to the local sea level changes, Southern Ocean winds also have a global effect through changing ocean heat content and the global overturning circulation