Recent Decisions

Comments on recent decisions by Frank P. Maggio, Paul Driscoll, Richard H. Puckett, John F. Costello, Harold E. McKee, and Edmund John Adams

Diet and Macronutrient Optimization in Wild Ursids: Grizzly Bears Versus Black Bears

When fed ad libitum, ursids can maximize mass gain by selecting mixed diets wherein protein provides 17 ± 4% of digestible energy.  In the wild, this ability is likely constrained.  By visiting locations of 37 individuals during 274 bear-days, we documented foods consumed by grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bears (Ursus americanus) in Grand Teton National Park during 2004–2006.  Based on published data, we estimated foods and macronutrients as percentages of daily energy intake.  Using principal components and cluster analyses, we identified 14 daily diet types.  Only 4 diets, accounting for 21% of days, provided optimal protein levels.  Nine diets (75% of days) led to over-consumption of protein, and 1 diet (3% of days) led to under-consumption.  Highest protein levels were associated with animal matter (i.e., insects, vertebrates), which accounted for 46–47% of daily energy for both species.  As predicted: 1) daily diets dominated by vertebrates were positively associated with grizzly bears and protein intake was positively associated with body mass; 2) diets dominated by fruits were positively associated with black bears; and 3) mean protein was highest during spring, when high-energy foods were scarce, however it was also higher than optimal during summer and fall.  Although optimal gain of body mass was constrained, bears opted for the energetically superior trade-off of consuming high-energy, high-protein foods.  Given protein digestion efficiency similar to obligate carnivores, this choice likely supported mass gain, consistent with studies showing monthly increases in percent body fat among bears in this region

Density Dependence, Whitebark Pine Decline and Vital Rates of Grizzly Bears in The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Recent evidence suggests annual population growth of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem has slowed from 4.1–7.6 percent during 1983–2001 to 0.3–2.2 percent during 2002–2011. Substantial changes in availability of an important fall food has occurred over the past decade. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), a highly variable but important fall food source for grizzly bears, has experienced substantial mortality due to a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak that started in the early 2000s. Concurrent with changes in food resources, the grizzly bear population has reached high densities in some areas and has continued to expand, now occupying >50,000 km2. We tested research hypotheses to examine if changes in vital rates detected during the past decade were more associated with grizzly bear density versus a whitebark pine decline. We focused our assessment on known-fate data to estimate survival of cubs-of-the-year, yearlings, and independent bears (? 2 yrs) and reproductive transition of females from having no offspring to having cubs.  We observed a change in survival of independent bears between the periods of 1983–2001 and 2002–2012, which was mostly a function of increased male survival; female survival did not change. Cub survival and reproductive transition declined during the last decade and were associated with an index of grizzly bear density, which indicated increasing density over time. We found no support that the decline in these vital rates was associated with the index of whitebark decline

Influence of Whitebark Pine Decline on Fall Habitat Use and Movements of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Seeds of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) are a major food item for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem. Higher rates of bear mortality and bear-human conflicts are linked with low WBP productivity. Recently, infestations of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) have killed many mature, cone-bearing WBP trees. We investigated whether this decline caused bears to reduce their use of WBP and increase use of areas near humans. We used 52,332 GPS locations of 72 individuals (89 bear-years) monitored during fall (15 Aug–30 Sep) to examine temporal changes in habitat use and movements during 2000–2011. We calculated a Manley-Chesson (MC) index for selectivity of mapped WBP habitats for each individual within its 100% local convex hull home range, and determined dates of WBP use. One third of sampled grizzly bears had fall ranges with little or no mapped WBP habitat. Most other bears (72%) had a MC index > 0.5, indicating selection for WBP habitats. Over the study period, mean MC index decreased and median date of WBP use shifted about 1 week later. We detected no trends in movement indices over time. Outside of national parks, 78 percent of bears selected for secure habitat (areas ? 500 m from roads), but mean MC index decreased over the study period during years of good WBP productivity. The foraging plasticity of grizzly bears likely allowed them to adjust to declining WBP. However, the reduction in mortality risk associated with use of WBP habitat may be diminishing for bears in multiple-use areas

Money, Finance and Demography: The Consequences of Ageing

A significant ageing trend can be observed in Europe and in other parts of the world. Fertility is decreasing and life expectancy increasing. The impact of migration is growing. The book deals with the implications for financial markets of these demographic trends. Leading economists and financial experts from Europe and the United States evaluate the challenges to public pension systems and the private pension industry. Based on long-term projections of productivity and employment they look at potential growth in GDP per capita and implications for savings and wealth. Pension fund portfolio management is discussed together with the ability of capital markets to serve retirement-financing purposes. Fiscal as well as financial sustainability are analysed in depth. The roles of global imbalances and international capital movements are included. Most chapters also discuss policy implications - in particular with regard to how pension saving incentives and rules and incentives for retirement should be in order to ensure fiscal and financial sustainability. All contributions in the book are based on presentations at the 26th SUERF Colloquium on "Money, Finance and Demography - the Consequences of Ageing" held on 12-14 October, 2006 in Lisbon sponsored by Banco de Portugal and Millennium bcp and in cooperation with the Universidade Nova de Lisboa.

A Global Ecological Classification of Coastal Segment Units to Complement Marine Biodiversity Observation Network Assessments

A new data layer provides Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) labels for global coastal segments at 1 km or shorter resolution. These characteristics are summarized for six US Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) sites and one MBON Pole to Pole of the Americas site in Argentina. The global coastlines CMECS classifications were produced from a partitioning of a 30 m Landsat-derived shoreline vector that was segmented into 4 million 1 km or shorter segments. Each segment was attributed with values from 10 variables that represent the ecological settings in which the coastline occurs, including properties of the adjacent water, adjacent land, and coastline itself. The 4 million segments were classified into 81,000 coastal segment units (CSUs) as unique combinations of variable classes. We summarize the process to develop the CSUs and derive summary descriptions for the seven MBON case study sites. We discuss the intended application of the new CSU data for research and management in coastal areas

Novel composite organic-inorganic semiconductor sensors for the quantitative detection of target organic vapours

Composites of tin dioxide (an n-type semiconductor) and derivatives of the conducting polymer polypyrrole (a p-type semiconductor) gave reversible changes in electrical resistance at room temperature when exposed to a range of organic vapours. The optimum amount of polymer giving highest sensitivity was found by experiment to be 2.5% by mass for the polypyrrole chloride-tin dioxide composite. Composites containing 2.5% polymer by mass, but differing in polymer derivative, were fabricated and exposed to low concentrations of ethanol, methanol, acetone, methyl acetate and ethyl acetate. All were found to give significant and reversible decreases in electrical resistance. Direct comparison with sensors constructed solely of tin dioxide or polypyrrole at room temperature showed the composites to be more sensitive. The gas sensitivity of the composite materials depended on the type of polymer derivative incorporated and the dopant anion associated with the polymer. The composites were simple to fabricate and gave differing response profiles to a range of organic vapours

Advice, authority and autonomy in shared decision making in antenatal screening: the importance of context

Shared decision making has been widely advocated across many branches of healthcare, yet there is considerable debate over both its practical application and how it should be examined or assessed. More recent discussions of SDM have highlighted the important of context, both internal and external to the consultation, with a recognition that decisions cannot be understood in isolation. This paper uses conversation analysis (CA) to examine how decision making is enacted in the context of antenatal screening consultations in Hong Kong. Building on previous CA work (Collins et al 2005; Toerien et al 2013), we show that, whilst previously identified formats are used here to present the need for a decision, the overriding basis professionals suggest for actually making a decision in this context is the level of worry or concern a pregnant woman holds about potential fetal abnormality

Objective Assessment of Adherence to Inhalers by COPD Patients.

RATIONALE: Objective adherence to inhaled therapy by patients with COPD has not been reported. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to objectively quantify adherence to preventer DiskusTM inhaler therapy by patients with COPD with an electronic audio recording device (INCATM). METHODS: This was a prospective observational study. On discharge from hospital patients were given a salmeterol/fluticasone inhaler with an INCATM device attached. Analysis of this audio quantified the frequency and proficiency of inhaler use. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: COPD patients (n=265) were recruited. The mean age 71 years, mean Forced Expiratory Volume in 1-second 1.3 Litres, and 80% had evidence of mild/moderate cognitive impairment. By combining time of use, interval between doses and critical technique errors, thus incorporating both intentional and unintentional non-adherence, a measure \u22Actual Adherence\u22 was calculated. Mean Actual Adherence was 22.9% of that expected if the doses were taken correctly and on time. Seven percent had an Actual Adherence\u3e80%. Hierarchical clustering found three equally sized well-separated clusters corresponding to distinct patterns: Cluster 1 (34%) had low inhaler use and high error rates, Cluster 2 (31%) had high inhaler use and high error rates, and Cluster 3 (30%) had overall good adherence. Lung function and co-morbidities were predictive of poor technique, while age and cognition with poor lung function distinguished those with poor adherence and frequent errors in technique. CONCLUSION: These data may inform clinicians both in understanding why a prescribed inhaler is not effective and to devise strategies to promote adherence in COPD