Eighty Years of War Gaming

As far as is known, Colomb\u27s Game was the first naval war game. Invented by Captain Colomb of the British Navy in 1878, it appeared 54 years after Lieutenant von Reisswitz\u27s War Game of Prussia, the first of the land warfare games

Matted nodes: Poor prognostic marker in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma independent of HPV and EGFR status

Background Despite better prognosis, there is a group of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) human papillomavirus (HPV)+ patients who experience treatment failure and succumb to distant metastasis. Methods Seventy‐eight previously untreated patients nested in a concurrent chemoradiation protocol were reviewed to correlate patterns of local‐regional tumor extent to distant metastasis. Biomarker assessment was: HPV in situ hybridization and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) immunointensity. Results The 3‐year disease‐specific survival (DSS) for patients presenting with and without matted nodes was 69% and 94%, respectively ( p = .003). Matted nodes were a poor prognostic factor independent of T classification, HPV, EGFR, and smoking status. For patients who were HPV+, 7 of 11 died of distant metastasis and 6 of 7 with distant metastasis had matted nodes. Conclusion Matted nodes are a novel marker of poor prognosis in oropharyngeal SCC independent of established prognostic factors. Matted nodes may identify patients at risk for the development of distant metastasis who could benefit from systemic therapy, whereas patients without matted nodes may be candidates for de‐escalation of therapy. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck , 2012Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94456/1/21997_ftp.pd

British signals intelligence and the 1916 Easter Rising in Ireland

Historians for decades have placed Room 40, the First World War British naval signals intelligence organization, at the centre of narratives about the British anticipation of and response to the Easter Rising in Ireland in 1916. A series of crucial decrypts of telegrams between the German embassy in Washington and Berlin, it has been believed, provided significant advance intelligence about the Rising before it took place. This article upends previous accounts by demonstrating that Room 40 possessed far less advance knowledge about the Rising than has been believed, with most of the supposedly key decrypts not being generated until months after the Rising had taken place

Spondylarthropathies (including psoriatic arthritis): 244. Validity of Colour Doppler and Spectral Doppler Ultrasound of Sacroilicac Joints Againts Physical Examination as Gold Standard

Background: Sacroiliac joints (SJ) involvement is a distinctive and charasteristic feature of Spondyloarthritis (SpA) and x-ray is the test routinely used to make a diagnosis. However, x-ray reveals late structural damage but cannot detect active inflammation. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of Doppler ultrasound in SJ. Methods: Prospective blinded and controlled study of SJ, in which three populations were compared. We studied 106 consecutive cases, who were divided into three groups: a) 53 patients diagnosed with SpA who had inflammatory lumbar and gluteal pain assessed by a rheumatologist; b) 26 patients diagnosed with SpA who didn't have SJ tenderness and had normal physical examination; c) control group of 27 subjects (healthy subjetcs or with mechanical lumbar pain). All patients included that were diagnosed with SpA met almost the European Spondyloarthropathy Study Group (ESSG) classification criteria. Physical examination of the SJ included: sacral sulcus tenderness, iliac gapping, iliac compression, midline sacral thrust test, Gaenslen's test, and Patrick s test were used as gold standard. Both SJ were examined with Doppler ultrasound (General Electric Logiq 9, Wauwatosa WI, USA) fitted with a 9-14 Mhz lineal probe. The ultrasonographer was blinded to clinical data. Doppler in SJ was assessed as positive when both Doppler colour and resistance index (RI) < 0.75 within the SJ area were present. Statistical analysis was performed estimating sensitivity and specificity against gold standard. The Kappa correlation coefficient was used for reliability study. Results: 106 cases (53 female, 55 male; mean age 36 10 years) were studied. There were no statistical differences between groups related to age or sex. Physical examination of SJ was positive in 38 patients (59 sacroiliac joints). US detected Doppler signal within SJ in 37 patients (58 SJ): 33 of them were symptomatic SpA (52 SJ), one of them were asymptomatic SpA (1 SJ) and one was a healthy control (1 SJ). The accuracy of US when compared to clinical data as gold standard at subject level in the overall group was: sensitivity of 68.6% and specificity of 85.7%, positive predictive value of 70.5% and negative predictive value of 84.5%. A positive likelihood ratio of 4.8, a negative likelihood ratio of 0.36 and a kappa coefficient of 0.55 were achieved. Conclusions: Doppler US of SJ seems to be a valid method to detect active SJ inflammation. Disclosure statement: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Trastuzumab for HER2-positive early stage breast cancer : a meta-analysis of individual patient data from 13,864 women from seven randomised trials

Background: Trastuzumab targets the extracellular domain of the HER2 protein. Adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy for patients with early-stage, HER2-positive breast cancer reduces the risk of recurrence and death, but is associated with cardiac toxicity. We investigated the long-term benefits and risks of adjuvant trastuzumab on breast cancer recurrence and cause-specific mortality. Methods: We did a collaborative meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials assessing chemotherapy plus trastuzumab versus the same chemotherapy alone. Randomised trials that enrolled women with node-negative or node-positive, operable breast cancer were included. We collected individual patient-level data on baseline characteristics, dates and sites of first distant breast cancer recurrence and any previous local recurrence or second primary cancer, and the date and underlying cause of death. Primary outcomes were breast cancer recurrence, breast cancer mortality, death without recurrence, and all-cause mortality. Standard intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, oestrogen receptor (ER) status, and trial yielded first-event rate ratios (RRs). Findings: Seven randomised trials met the inclusion criteria, and included 13 864 patients enrolled between February, 2000, and December, 2005. Mean scheduled treatment duration was 14·4 months and median follow-up was 10·7 years (IQR 9·5 to 11·9). The risks of breast cancer recurrence (RR 0·66, 95% CI 0·62 to 0·71; p<0·0001) and death from breast cancer (0·67, 0·61 to 0·73; p<0·0001) were lower with trastuzumab plus chemotherapy than with chemotherapy alone. Absolute 10-year recurrence risk was reduced by 9·0% (95% CI 7·4 to 10·7; p<0·0001) and 10-year breast cancer mortality was reduced by 6·4% (4·9 to 7·8; p<0·0001), with a 6·5% reduction (5·0 to 8·0; p<0·0001) in all-cause mortality, and no increase in death without recurrence (0·4%, –0·3 to 1·1; p=0·35). The proportional reduction in recurrence was largest in years 0–1 after randomisation (0·53, 99% CI 0·46 to 0·61), with benefits persisting through years 2–4 (0·73, 0·62 to 0·85) and 5–9 (0·80, 0·64 to 1·01), and little follow-up beyond year 10. Proportional recurrence reductions were similar irrespective of recorded patient and tumour characteristics, including ER status. The more high risk the tumour, the larger the absolute reductions in 5-year recurrence (eg, 5·7% [95% CI 3·1 to 8·3], 6·8% [4·7 to 9·0], and 10·7% [7·7 to 13·6] in N0, N1–3, and N4+ disease). Interpretation: Adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy for early-stage, HER2-positive breast cancer reduces recurrence of, and mortality from, breast cancer by a third, with worthwhile proportional reductions irrespective of recorded patient and tumour characteristics. Funding: Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council

Increasing the dose intensity of chemotherapy by more frequent administration or sequential scheduling: a patient-level meta-analysis of 37 298 women with early breast cancer in 26 randomised trials

Background Increasing the dose intensity of cytotoxic therapy by shortening the intervals between cycles, or by giving individual drugs sequentially at full dose rather than in lower-dose concurrent treatment schedules, might enhance efficacy. Methods To clarify the relative benefits and risks of dose-intense and standard-schedule chemotherapy in early breast cancer, we did an individual patient-level meta-analysis of trials comparing 2-weekly versus standard 3-weekly schedules, and of trials comparing sequential versus concurrent administration of anthracycline and taxane chemotherapy. The primary outcomes were recurrence and breast cancer mortality. Standard intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, and trial, yielded dose-intense versus standard-schedule first-event rate ratios (RRs). Findings Individual patient data were provided for 26 of 33 relevant trials identified, comprising 37 298 (93%) of 40 070 women randomised. Most women were aged younger than 70 years and had node-positive disease. Total cytotoxic drug usage was broadly comparable in the two treatment arms; colony-stimulating factor was generally used in the more dose-intense arm. Combining data from all 26 trials, fewer breast cancer recurrences were seen with dose-intense than with standard-schedule chemotherapy (10-year recurrence risk 28·0% vs 31·4%; RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·82–0·89; p<0·0001). 10-year breast cancer mortality was similarly reduced (18·9% vs 21·3%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·83–0·92; p<0·0001), as was all-cause mortality (22·1% vs 24·8%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·83–0·91; p<0·0001). Death without recurrence was, if anything, lower with dose-intense than with standard-schedule chemotherapy (10-year risk 4·1% vs 4·6%; RR 0·88, 95% CI 0·78–0·99; p=0·034). Recurrence reductions were similar in the seven trials (n=10 004) that compared 2-weekly chemotherapy with the same chemotherapy given 3-weekly (10-year risk 24·0% vs 28·3%; RR 0·83, 95% CI 0·76–0·91; p<0·0001), in the six trials (n=11 028) of sequential versus concurrent anthracycline plus taxane chemotherapy (28·1% vs 31·3%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·80–0·94; p=0·0006), and in the six trials (n=6532) testing both shorter intervals and sequential administration (30·4% vs 35·0%; RR 0·82, 95% CI 0·74–0·90; p<0·0001). The proportional reductions in recurrence with dose-intense chemotherapy were similar and highly significant (p<0·0001) in oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive and ER-negative disease and did not differ significantly by other patient or tumour characteristics. Interpretation Increasing the dose intensity of adjuvant chemotherapy by shortening the interval between treatment cycles, or by giving individual drugs sequentially rather than giving the same drugs concurrently, moderately reduces the 10-year risk of recurrence and death from breast cancer without increasing mortality from other causes. Funding Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council

Tracking Antigen-Specific T-Cells during Clinical Tolerance Induction in Humans

Allergen immunotherapy presents an opportunity to define mechanisms of induction of clinical tolerance in humans. Significant progress has been made in our understanding of changes in T cell responses during immunotherapy, but existing work has largely been based on functional T cell assays. HLA-peptide-tetrameric complexes allow the tracking of antigen-specific T-cell populations based on the presence of specific T-cell receptors and when combined with functional assays allow a closer assessment of the potential roles of T-cell anergy and clonotype evolution. We sought to develop tools to facilitate tracking of antigen-specific T-cell populations during wasp-venom immunotherapy in people with wasp-venom allergy. We first defined dominant immunogenic regions within Ves v 5, a constituent of wasp venom that is known to represent a target antigen for T-cells. We next identified HLA-DRB1*1501 restricted epitopes and used HLA class II tetrameric complexes alongside cytokine responses to Ves v 5 to track T-cell responses during immunotherapy. In contrast to previous reports, we show that there was a significant initial induction of IL-4 producing antigen-specific T-cells within the first 3–5 weeks of immunotherapy which was followed by reduction of circulating effector antigen-specific T-cells despite escalation of wasp-venom dosage. However, there was sustained induction of IL-10-producing and FOXP3 positive antigen-specific T cells. We observed that these IL-10 producing cells could share a common precursor with IL-4-producing T cells specific for the same epitope. Clinical tolerance induction in humans is associated with dynamic changes in frequencies of antigen-specific T-cells, with a marked loss of IL-4-producing T-cells and the acquisition of IL-10-producing and FOXP3-positive antigen-specific CD4+ T-cells that can derive from a common shared precursor to pre-treatment effector T-cells. The development of new approaches to track antigen specific T-cell responses during immunotherapy can provide novel insights into mechanisms of tolerance induction in humans and identify new potential treatment targets

Clinical Utility of Random Anti–Tumor Necrosis Factor Drug–Level Testing and Measurement of Antidrug Antibodies on the Long-Term Treatment Response in Rheumatoid Arthritis

Objective: To investigate whether antidrug antibodies and/or drug non-trough levels predict the long-term treatment response in a large cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treated with adalimumab or etanercept and to identify factors influencing antidrug antibody and drug levels to optimize future treatment decisions.  Methods: A total of 331 patients from an observational prospective cohort were selected (160 patients treated with adalimumab and 171 treated with etanercept). Antidrug antibody levels were measured by radioimmunoassay, and drug levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 835 serial serum samples obtained 3, 6, and 12 months after initiation of therapy. The association between antidrug antibodies and drug non-trough levels and the treatment response (change in the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints) was evaluated.  Results: Among patients who completed 12 months of followup, antidrug antibodies were detected in 24.8% of those receiving adalimumab (31 of 125) and in none of those receiving etanercept. At 3 months, antidrug antibody formation and low adalimumab levels were significant predictors of no response according to the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) criteria at 12 months (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.57, 0.85]). Antidrug antibody–positive patients received lower median dosages of methotrexate compared with antidrug antibody–negative patients (15 mg/week versus 20 mg/week; P = 0.01) and had a longer disease duration (14.0 versus 7.7 years; P = 0.03). The adalimumab level was the best predictor of change in the DAS28 at 12 months, after adjustment for confounders (regression coefficient 0.060 [95% CI 0.015, 0.10], P = 0.009). Etanercept levels were associated with the EULAR response at 12 months (regression coefficient 0.088 [95% CI 0.019, 0.16], P = 0.012); however, this difference was not significant after adjustment. A body mass index of ≥30 kg/m2 and poor adherence were associated with lower drug levels.  Conclusion: Pharmacologic testing in anti–tumor necrosis factor–treated patients is clinically useful even in the absence of trough levels. At 3 months, antidrug antibodies and low adalimumab levels are significant predictors of no response according to the EULAR criteria at 12 months