Information, volatility and price discovery in oil futures markets

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.This thesis presents four related empirical essays which investigate the role of information in crude oil futures markets. The first line of investigation examines the impact of futures trading on spot price volatility and finds that the nature of spot price volatility is affected by derivative trading and the improvements in information discovery which such trading brings. Second, the efficiency of futures markets is examined with respect to their ability to provide unbiased estimates of future spot prices. Here it is concluded that while unbiased estimates are generally provided in the long-term, they tend to be largely biased over the short-term. The third area of investigation looks at the relative ability of contemporaneous spot and futures prices to discover information, where it is found that futures generally exhibit price discovery over spot markets but that the relationship can vary considerably over time and in relation to market conditions. In addition, the investigation suggests that previous studies into such relationships have failed to account for all routes through which information passes between spot and futures markets. Finally the thesis probes the question of the relationship within futures markets between volume, volatility and information. The finding is' that futures markets' prices and trading volume exhibit a positive relation and are jointly driven by the rate of information arrival. The results further suggest that the widely held expectation that volume statistics can improve forecasts of future price change does not hold in the case of oil futures. The overall finding of the thesis is that oil futures markets are well-functioning and in general are of benefit to the underlying spot market

Low Cost Vacuum Chamber Design for Electromagnetic Railgun Operation

This report describes the design and fabrication of a low cost vacuum chamber capable of supporting the operation of an electromagnetic railgun. This would be used to simulate the impact of high velocity impacts in space. The vacuum chamber was constructed out of 10in diameter 10ft PVC pipe with a Wye fitting for viewing impacts during testing. The chamber was designed to accommodate a 6.5in X 6.5in X 60in railgun. The vacuum chamber feedthroughs were designed to be able to carry 1-2Mamps at 8kV to the railgun. The vacuum chamber is capable of reaching 50 Torr and remaining under 100 Torr for 11 minutes. The final cost of the chamber was $1325

Dobutamine stress MRI in pulmonary hypertension: relationships between stress pulmonary artery relative area change, RV performance, and 10-year survival

In pulmonary hypertension (PH), right ventricular (RV) performance determines survival. Pulmonary artery (PA) stiffening is an important biomechanical event in PH and also predicts survival based on the PA relative area change (RAC) measured at rest using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In this exploratory study, we sought to generate novel hypotheses regarding the influence of stress RAC on PH prognosis and the interaction between PA stiffening, RV performance and survival. Fifteen PH patients underwent dobutamine stress-MRI (ds-MRI) and right heart catheterization. RACREST, RACSTRESS, and ΔRAC (RAC STRESS – RAC REST) were correlated against resting invasive hemodynamics and ds-MRI data regarding RV performance and RV-PA coupling efficiency (n’vv [RV stroke volume/RV end-systolic volume]). The impact of RAC, RV data, and n’vv on ten-year survival were determined using Kaplan–Meier analysis. PH patients with a low ΔRAC (<−2.6%) had a worse long-term survival (log-rank P = 0.045, HR for death = 4.46 [95% CI = 1.08–24.5]) than those with ΔRAC ≥ −2.6%. Given the small sample, these data should be interpreted with caution; however, low ΔRAC was associated with an increase in stress diastolic PA area indicating proximal PA stiffening. Associations of borderline significance were observed between low RACSTRESS and low n’vvSTRESS, Δη’VV, and ΔRVEF. Further studies are required to validate the potential prognostic impact of ΔRAC and the biomechanics potentially connecting low ΔRAC to shorter survival. Such studies may facilitate development of novel PH therapies targeted to the proximal PA

The Steinmann Cluster Bootstrap for N=4 Super Yang-Mills Amplitudes

We review the bootstrap method for constructing six- and seven-particle amplitudes in planar $\mathcal{N}=4$ super Yang-Mills theory, by exploiting their analytic structure. We focus on two recently discovered properties which greatly simplify this construction at symbol and function level, respectively: the extended Steinmann relations, or equivalently cluster adjacency, and the coaction principle. We then demonstrate their power in determining the six-particle amplitude through six and seven loops in the NMHV and MHV sectors respectively, as well as the symbol of the NMHV seven-particle amplitude to four loops.Comment: 36 pages, 4 figures, 5 tables, 1 ancillary file. Contribution to the proceedings of the Corfu Summer Institute 2019 "School and Workshops on Elementary Particle Physics and Gravity" (CORFU2019), 31 August - 25 September 2019, Corfu, Greec

Priming winter wheat seeds with the bacterial quorum sensing signal N-hexanoyl-L-homoserine lactone (C6-HSL) shows potential to improve plant growth and seed yield

Several model plants are known to respond to bacterial quorum sensing molecules with altered root growth and gene expression patterns and induced resistance to plant pathogens. These compounds may represent novel elicitors that could be applied as seed primers to enhance cereal crop resistance to pathogens and abiotic stress and to improve yields. We investigated whether the acyl-homoserine lactone N-hexanoyl-L-homoserine lactone (C6-HSL) impacted winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) seed germination, plant development and productivity, using two Ukrainian varieties, Volodarka and Yatran 60, in both in vitro experiments and field trials. In vitro germination experiments indicated that C6-HSL seed priming had a small but significant positive impact on germination levels (1.2x increase, p < 0.0001), coleoptile and radicle development (1.4x increase, p < 0.0001). Field trials over two growing seasons (2015-16 and 2016-17) also demonstrated significant improvements in biomass at the tillering stage (1.4x increase, p < 0.0001), and crop structure and productivity at maturity including grain yield (1.4 – 1.5x increase, p < 0.0007) and quality (1.3x increase in good grain, p < 0.0001). In some cases variety effects were observed (p ≤ 0.05) suggesting that the effect of C6-HSL seed priming might depend on plant genetics, and some benefits of priming were also evident in F1 plants grown from seeds collected the previous season (p ≤ 0.05). These field-scale findings suggest that bacterial acyl-homoserine lactones such as C6-HSL could be used to improve cereal crop growth and yield and reduce reliance on fungicides and fertilisers to combat pathogens and stress

Evolution of four gene families with patchy phylogenetic distributions: influx of genes into protist genomes

BACKGROUND: Lateral gene transfer (LGT) in eukaryotes from non-organellar sources is a controversial subject in need of further study. Here we present gene distribution and phylogenetic analyses of the genes encoding the hybrid-cluster protein, A-type flavoprotein, glucosamine-6-phosphate isomerase, and alcohol dehydrogenase E. These four genes have a limited distribution among sequenced prokaryotic and eukaryotic genomes and were previously implicated in gene transfer events affecting eukaryotes. If our previous contention that these genes were introduced by LGT independently into the diplomonad and Entamoeba lineages were true, we expect that the number of putative transfers and the phylogenetic signal supporting LGT should be stable or increase, rather than decrease, when novel eukaryotic and prokaryotic homologs are added to the analyses. RESULTS: The addition of homologs from phagotrophic protists, including several Entamoeba species, the pelobiont Mastigamoeba balamuthi, and the parabasalid Trichomonas vaginalis, and a large quantity of sequences from genome projects resulted in an apparent increase in the number of putative transfer events affecting all three domains of life. Some of the eukaryotic transfers affect a wide range of protists, such as three divergent lineages of Amoebozoa, represented by Entamoeba, Mastigamoeba, and Dictyostelium, while other transfers only affect a limited diversity, for example only the Entamoeba lineage. These observations are consistent with a model where these genes have been introduced into protist genomes independently from various sources over a long evolutionary time. CONCLUSION: Phylogenetic analyses of the updated datasets using more sophisticated phylogenetic methods, in combination with the gene distribution analyses, strengthened, rather than weakened, the support for LGT as an important mechanism affecting the evolution of these gene families. Thus, gene transfer seems to be an on-going evolutionary mechanism by which genes are spread between unrelated lineages of all three domains of life, further indicating the importance of LGT from non-organellar sources into eukaryotic genomes

Endophytic Trichoderma spp. can protect strawberry and privet plants from infection by the fungus Armillaria mellea

Armillaria mellea is an important fungal pathogen worldwide, affecting a large number of hosts in the horticulture and forestry industries. Controlling A. mellea infection is expensive, labour intensive and time-consuming, so a new, environmentally friendly management solution is required. To this effect, endophytic Trichoderma species were studied as a potential protective agent for Armillaria root rot (ARR) in strawberry and privet plants. A collection of forty endophytic Trichoderma isolates were inoculated into strawberry (Fragaria × ananassa) plants and plant growth was monitored for two months, during which time Trichoderma treatment had no apparent effect. Trichoderma-colonised strawberry plants were then inoculated with A. mellea and after three months plants were assessed for A. mellea infection. There was considerable variation in ARR disease levels between plants inoculated with different Trichoderma spp. isolates, but seven isolates reduced ARR below the level of positive controls. These isolates were further tested for protective potential in Trichoderma-colonized privet (Ligustrum vulgare) plants where five Trichoderma spp. isolates, including two highly effective Trichoderma atrobrunneum isolates, were able to significantly reduce levels of disease. This study highlights the potential of plants pre-colonised with T. atrobrunneum for effective protection against A. mellea in two hosts from different plant families