Data monitoring roadmap. The experience of the Italian Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders Register

Introduction Over the years, disease registers have been increasingly considered a source of reliable and valuable population studies. However, the validity and reliability of data from registers may be limited by missing data, selection bias or data quality not adequately evaluated or checked.This study reports the analysis of the consistency and completeness of the data in the Italian Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders Register.MethodsThe Register collects, through a standardized Web-based Application, unique patients.Data are exported bimonthly and evaluated to assess the updating and completeness, and to check the quality and consistency. Eight clinical indicators are evaluated.ResultsThe Register counts 77,628 patients registered by 126 centres. The number of centres has increased over time, as their capacity to collect patients.The percentages of updated patients (with at least one visit in the last 24 months) have increased from 33% (enrolment period 2000-2015) to 60% (enrolment period 2016-2022). In the cohort of patients registered after 2016, there were >= 75% updated patients in 30% of the small centres (33), in 9% of the medium centres (11), and in all the large centres (2).Clinical indicators show significant improvement for the active patients, expanded disability status scale every 6 months or once every 12 months, visits every 6 months, first visit within 1 year and MRI every 12 months.ConclusionsData from disease registers provide guidance for evidence-based health policies and research, so methods and strategies ensuring their quality and reliability are crucial and have several potential applications

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Changes in exercise capacity induced by heart transplantation: prognostic and therapeutic implications.

Survival and exercise performance are key targets of heart transplantation (HT). We designed this study to help in identifying (1) patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) at risk of poor exercise capacity after HT and (2) HT recipients presenting risk factors modifiable with exercise showing a potential impact on outcome. We enrolled 49 HT recipients (age 52 \ub1 12 years, 84% males) who underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test before (9 \ub1 6 months) and after (20 \ub1 14 months) HT. In the CHF phase, lower peak oxygen consumption (V\u307O 2) (odds ratio 0.69, P=0.017) independently predicted peak V\u307O 2 improvement after HT. In the post-HT phase, body mass index (BMI) [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.16, P=0.034] and V\u307E (ventilation)/V\u307CO 2 (carbon dioxide production) slope (adjusted HR 1.07, P=0.031) independently predicted mortality. In conclusion, CHF patients with only a moderate impairment of peak V\u307O 2 are at a risk of failing to achieve a significant improvement of exercise performance after HT. In the post-HT phase, a BMI 6528 and/or a V\u307E/V\u307CO 2 slope 6547 represent risk factors for death, which are potentially modifiable with exercise. Prospective randomized studies are needed to analyze the effects of training on functional capacity and outcome in the different subsets of HT recipients

Changes in exercise capacity induced by heart transplantation: prognostic and therapeutic implications.

Survival and exercise performance are key targets of heart transplantation (HT). We designed this study to help in identifying (1) patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) at risk of poor exercise capacity after HT and (2) HT recipients presenting risk factors modifiable with exercise showing a potential impact on outcome. We enrolled 49 HT recipients (age 52 ± 12 years, 84% males) who underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test before (9 ± 6 months) and after (20 ± 14 months) HT. In the CHF phase, lower peak oxygen consumption (V̇O 2) (odds ratio 0.69, P=0.017) independently predicted peak V̇O 2 improvement after HT. In the post-HT phase, body mass index (BMI) [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.16, P=0.034] and V̇E (ventilation)/V̇CO 2 (carbon dioxide production) slope (adjusted HR 1.07, P=0.031) independently predicted mortality. In conclusion, CHF patients with only a moderate impairment of peak V̇O 2 are at a risk of failing to achieve a significant improvement of exercise performance after HT. In the post-HT phase, a BMI≥28 and/or a V̇E/V̇CO 2 slope ≥47 represent risk factors for death, which are potentially modifiable with exercise. Prospective randomized studies are needed to analyze the effects of training on functional capacity and outcome in the different subsets of HT recipients

Longterm retention of tumor necrosis factor-α inhibitor therapy in a large italian cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis from the GISEA registry: an appraisal of predictors

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate 4-year retention rates of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) inhibitors adalimumab, etanercept, and infliximab among patients with longstanding rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as derived from an Italian national registry.METHODS: The clinical records of 853 adult patients with RA in the GISEA (Gruppo Italiano Studio Early Arthritis) registry were prospectively analyzed to compare drug survival rates and the baseline factors that may predict adherence to therapy.RESULTS: In 2003 and 2004, 324 patients started treatment with adalimumab, 311 with etanercept, and 218 with infliximab. After 4 years, the global retention rate of anti-TNF-α therapy was 42%. Etanercept survival (51.4%) was significantly better than that of infliximab (37.6%) or adalimumab (36.4%; p < 0.0001). Accordingly, the mean duration of therapy was significantly longer for etanercept (3.1 ± 2 yrs) than for adalimumab (2.6 ± 2 yrs) or infliximab (2.7 ± 2 yrs; p < 0.05). The use of concomitant disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, mainly methotrexate, and the presence of comorbidities significantly predicted drug continuation (p < 0.01), whereas a high Disease Activity Score did not.CONCLUSION: The 4-year global drug survival of adalimumab, etanercept, and infliximab was lower than 50%, with etanercept having the best retention rate. The main positive predictor of adherence to anti-TNF-α therapy was the concomitant use of methotrexate. Our study provides further evidence that the real-life treatment of patients with RA may be different from that of randomized clinical trials

Comparison of prognostic models in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing Sorafenib: A multicenter study

Background: Sorafenib is the gold standard therapy for the advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). No scoring/staging is universally accepted to predict the survival of these patients. Aims: To evaluate the accuracy of the available prognostic models for HCC to predict the survival of advanced HCC patients treated with Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort. Methods: The performance of several prognostic scores was assessed through a Cox regression-model evaluating the C-index and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Results: Data of 1129 patients were analyzed. The mean age of patients was 61.6 years, and 80.8% were male. During a median follow-up period of 13 months, 789 patients died. The median period of Sorafenib administration was 4 months. All the prognostic scores were able to predict the overall survival (p<0.001) at univariate analysis, except the Albumin-Bilirubin score. The Italian Liver Cancer score (CLIP) yielded the highest accuracy (C-index 0.604, AIC 9898), followed by the ITA.LI.CA. prognostic score (C-index 0.599, AIC 9915). Conclusions: The CLIP score had the highest accuracy in predicting the overall survival of HCC patients treated with Sorafenib, although its performance remained poor. Further studies are needed to refine the current ability to predict the outcome of HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib