State of the art in selection of variables and functional forms in multivariable analysis-outstanding issues

Background: How to select variables and identify functional forms for continuous variables is a key concern when creating a multivariable model. Ad hoc ‘traditional’ approaches to variable selection have been in use for at least 50 years. Similarly, methods for determining functional forms for continuous variables were first suggested many years ago. More recently, many alternative approaches to address these two challenges have been proposed, but knowledge of their properties and meaningful comparisons between them are scarce. To define a state of the art and to provide evidence-supported guidance to researchers who have only a basic level of statistical knowledge, many outstanding issues in multivariable modelling remain. Our main aims are to identify and illustrate such gaps in the literature and present them at a moderate technical level to the wide community of practitioners, researchers and students of statistics. Methods: We briefly discuss general issues in building descriptive regression models, strategies for variable selection, different ways of choosing functional forms for continuous variables and methods for combining the selection of variables and functions. We discuss two examples, taken from the medical literature, to illustrate problems in the practice of modelling. Results: Our overview revealed that there is not yet enough evidence on which to base recommendations for the selection of variables and functional forms in multivariable analysis. Such evidence may come from comparisons between alternative methods. In particular, we highlight seven important topics that require further investigation and make suggestions for the direction of further research. Conclusions: Selection of variables and of functional forms are important topics in multivariable analysis. To define a state of the art and to provide evidence-supported guidance to researchers who have only a basic level of statistical knowledge, further comparative research is required

Lead Exposure and Behavior among Young Children in Chennai, India

Background: Lead exposure has long been associated with deficits in IQ among children. However, few studies have assessed the impact of lead on specific domains of behavior and cognition. Objective: We evaluated the associations between lead and different domains of neurobehavior and their relative sensitivity to lead. Methods: We determined blood lead levels using a LeadCare instrument in 756 children 3–7 years of age attending pre- and elementary schools in Chennai, India. Anxiety, social problems, inattention, hyperactivity, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), as well as executive function were assessed in children by their schoolteachers using Conners’ Teacher Rating Scales-39, Conners’ ADHD/Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders, 4th Edition Scales (CADS), and the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function questionnaires, with higher scores denoting worse behavior. Analyses were carried out using multivariate generalized estimating equations with comparisons of outcome Z-scores to assess the relative strengths of the associations between log-blood lead and the different domains of behavior. Results: Mean blood lead level was 11.4 ± 5.3 μg/dL. Blood lead was associated with higher anxiety (β = 0.27, p = 0.01), social problems (β = 0.20, p = 0.02), and higher scores in the ADHD index (β = 0.17; p = 0.05). The effect estimate was highest for global executive function (β = 0.42; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Higher blood lead levels in this population of young children is associated with increased risk of neurobehavioral deficits and ADHD, with executive function and attention being particularly vulnerable domains to the effects of lead

The systematic guideline review: method, rationale, and test on chronic heart failure

Background: Evidence-based guidelines have the potential to improve healthcare. However, their de-novo-development requires substantial resources-especially for complex conditions, and adaptation may be biased by contextually influenced recommendations in source guidelines. In this paper we describe a new approach to guideline development-the systematic guideline review method (SGR), and its application in the development of an evidence-based guideline for family physicians on chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: A systematic search for guidelines was carried out. Evidence-based guidelines on CHF management in adults in ambulatory care published in English or German between the years 2000 and 2004 were included. Guidelines on acute or right heart failure were excluded. Eligibility was assessed by two reviewers, methodological quality of selected guidelines was appraised using the AGREE instrument, and a framework of relevant clinical questions for diagnostics and treatment was derived. Data were extracted into evidence tables, systematically compared by means of a consistency analysis and synthesized in a preliminary draft. Most relevant primary sources were re-assessed to verify the cited evidence. Evidence and recommendations were summarized in a draft guideline. Results: Of 16 included guidelines five were of good quality. A total of 35 recommendations were systematically compared: 25/35 were consistent, 9/35 inconsistent, and 1/35 un-rateable (derived from a single guideline). Of the 25 consistencies, 14 were based on consensus, seven on evidence and four differed in grading. Major inconsistencies were found in 3/9 of the inconsistent recommendations. We re-evaluated the evidence for 17 recommendations (evidence-based, differing evidence levels and minor inconsistencies) - the majority was congruent. Incongruity was found where the stated evidence could not be verified in the cited primary sources, or where the evaluation in the source guidelines focused on treatment benefits and underestimated the risks. The draft guideline was completed in 8.5 man-months. The main limitation to this study was the lack of a second reviewer. Conclusion: The systematic guideline review including framework development, consistency analysis and validation is an effective, valid, and resource saving-approach to the development of evidence-based guidelines

Laws for the Right to Work of Disabled People: The Italian Experience

This scholarly handbook covers all aspects of people with disabilities entering the workplace, including the legal aspects, transitions, types, and levels of employments, the impact of different disabilities, and the consideration of the intersection of disability with other identities such as gender and ethnicity. Comprehensive in scope, chapters look beyond organizational strategies that accommodate an employee’s disability and use case studies to highlight important issues and the individual’s perspective. The handbook concludes with a reflection on the work included in the book, what was not included and why, and makes recommendations for future disability research. Marking a major contribution to the study of workplace diversity and bringing together academics from various disciplines and global regions, this handbook covers a truly broad and diverse mix of approaches, theories, and models

Effectiveness of interventions aimed at improving physical and psychological outcomes of fall-related injuries in people with dementia: a narrative systematic review

Background: The annual prevalence of falls in people with dementia ranges from 47 to 90%. Falls are a common reason for hospital admission in people with dementia, and there is limited research evidence regarding the care pathways experienced by this population. In addition to immediate management of an injury, prevention of further falls is likely to be an important part of any successful intervention. This review aims to assess the effectiveness of interventions for improving the physical and psychological wellbeing of people with dementia who have sustained a fall-related injury. Methods: Systematic review methodologies were employed utilising searches across multiple databases (MEDLINE, CENTRAL, Health Management Information Consortium, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science, Allied and Complementary Medicine Database, and Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro)) and citation chaining. Studies including people with a known diagnosis of dementia living in the community and who present at health services with a fall, with or without injury, were included. Outcomes of interest included mobility, recurrent falls, activities of daily living, length of hospital stay, and post-discharge residence. Results were independently reviewed and quality assessed by two researchers, and data extracted using a customised form. A narrative synthesis was performed due to heterogeneity of the included studies. Results: Seven studies were included. Interventions clustered into three broad categories: multidisciplinary in-hospital post-surgical geriatric assessment; pharmaceuticals; and multifactorial assessment. Multidisciplinary care and early mobilisation showed short-term improvements for some outcomes. Only an annual administration of zoledronic acid showed long-term reduction in recurrent falls. Conclusions: Due to high heterogeneity across the studies, definitive conclusions could not be reached. Most post-fall interventions were not aimed at patients with dementia and have shown little efficacy regardless of cognitive status. Minor improvements to some quality of life indicators were shown, but these were generally not statistically significant. Conclusions were also limited due to most studies addressing hip fracture; the interventions provided for this type of injury may not be suitable for other types of fractures or soft tissue injuries, or for use in primary care

Effects of Particulate Matter on Genomic DNA Methylation Content and iNOS Promoter Methylation

BACKGROUND: Altered patterns of gene expression mediate the effects of particulate matter (PM) on human health, but mechanisms through which PM modifies gene expression are largely undetermined. OBJECTIVES: We aimed at identifying short- and long-term effects of PM exposure on DNA methylation, a major genomic mechanism of gene expression control, in workers in an electric furnace steel plant with well-characterized exposure to PM with aerodynamic diameters < 10 microm (PM(10)). METHODS: We measured global genomic DNA methylation content estimated in Alu and long interspersed nuclear element-1 (LINE-1) repeated elements, and promoter DNA methylation of iNOS (inducible nitric oxide synthase), a gene suppressed by DNA methylation and induced by PM exposure in blood leukocytes. Quantitative DNA methylation analysis was performed through bisulfite PCR pyrosequencing on blood DNA obtained from 63 workers on the first day of a work week (baseline, after 2 days off work) and after 3 days of work (postexposure). Individual PM(10) exposure was between 73.4 and 1,220 microg/m(3). RESULTS: Global methylation content estimated in Alu and LINE-1 repeated elements did not show changes in postexposure measures compared with baseline. PM(10) exposure levels were negatively associated with methylation in both Alu [beta = -0.19 \%5-methylcytosine (\%5mC); p = 0.04] and LINE-1 [beta = -0.34 \%5mC; p = 0.04], likely reflecting long-term PM(10) effects. iNOS promoter DNA methylation was significantly lower in postexposure blood samples compared with baseline (difference = -0.61 \%5mC; p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: We observed changes in global and gene specific methylation that should be further characterized in future investigations on the effects of PM

Social disparities in exposures to bisphenol A and polyfluoroalkyl chemicals: a cross-sectional study within NHANES 2003-2006

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Bisphenol A (BPA) and polyfluoroalkyl chemicals (PFCs) are suspected endocrine disrupting compounds known to be ubiquitous in people's bodies. Population disparities in exposure to these chemicals have not been fully characterized.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed data from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Using multivariable linear regression we examined the association between urinary concentrations of BPA, serum concentrations of four PFCs, and multiple measures of socioeconomic position (SEP): family income, education, occupation, and food security. We also examined associations with race/ethnicity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All four PFCs were positively associated with family income, whereas BPA was inversely associated with family income. BPA concentrations were higher in people who reported very low food security and received emergency food assistance than in those who did not. This association was particularly strong in children: 6-11 year-olds whose families received emergency food had BPA levels 54% higher (95% CI, 13 to 112%) than children of families who did not. For BPA and PFCs we saw smaller and less consistent associations with education and occupation. Mexican Americans had the lowest concentrations of any racial/ethnic group of both types of chemicals; for PFCs, Mexican Americans not born in the U.S. had much lower levels than those born in the U.S.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>People with lower incomes had higher body burdens of BPA; the reverse was true for PFCs. Family income with adjustment for family size was the strongest predictor of chemical concentrations among the different measures of SEP we studied. Income, education, occupation, and food security appear to capture different aspects of SEP that may be related to exposure to BPA and PFCs and are not necessarily interchangeable as measures of SEP in environmental epidemiology studies. Differences by race/ethnicity were independent of SEP.</p

A prognostic tool to identify adolescents at high risk of becoming daily smokers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The American Academy of Pediatrics advocates that pediatricians should be involved in tobacco counseling and has developed guidelines for counseling. We present a prognostic tool for use by health care practitioners in both clinical and non-clinical settings, to identify adolescents at risk of becoming daily smokers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were drawn from the Nicotine Dependence in Teens (NDIT) Study, a prospective investigation of 1293 adolescents, initially aged 12-13 years, recruited in 10 secondary schools in Montreal, Canada in 1999. Questionnaires were administered every three months for five years. The prognostic tool was developed using estimated coefficients from multivariable logistic models. Model overfitting was corrected using bootstrap cross-validation. Goodness-of-fit and predictive ability of the models were assessed by R², the c-statistic, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The 1-year and 2-year probability of initiating daily smoking was a joint function of seven individual characteristics: age; ever smoked; ever felt like you needed a cigarette; parent(s) smoke; sibling(s) smoke; friend(s) smoke; and ever drank alcohol. The models were characterized by reasonably good fit and predictive ability. They were transformed into user-friendly tables such that the risk of daily smoking can be easily computed by summing points for responses to each item. The prognostic tool is also available on-line at <url>http://episerve.chumontreal.qc.ca/calculation_risk/daily-risk/daily_smokingadd.php</url>.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The prognostic tool to identify youth at high risk of daily smoking may eventually be an important component of a comprehensive tobacco control system.</p