Landslide Inventory, Susceptibility, Frequency and Hazard zoning in the Wollongong and wider Sydney Basin Area

The University of Wollongong Landslide Research Team has been working on the development of GIS-based Landslide Inventory, Susceptibility and Hazard Zoning projects for over 15 years. To undertake the zoning work we use knowledge-based methods including Data Mining techniques which are facilitated within a GIS framework. This work is ongoing, and as with this paper, there are two main aims; firstly for those smaller sub-regions of Sydney where considerable data have been obtained and the landslide inventory development is comprehensive, increasingly more reliable modelling, analysis and synthesis is being done, and secondly, for the entire 31,000km2 geological extent of the Sydney Basin region where the available data are relatively small scale and the process of developing the landslide inventory is in the early stages, preliminary studies which are described as ‘proof of concept’ have been completed and are reported herein. The most advanced sub-region is a large portion of the Illawarra Escarpment within the Wollongong Local Government Area (LGA). Another advanced sub-region is the Picton area within the Wollondilly LGA. All the while, input data is being refined and improved in particular with the advent of Airborne Laser Scan derived DEM’s and the ongoing development and populating of Landslide Inventories. In tandem with refined input data, computing capabilities are also rapidly evolving and this is enabling ever growing terrain modelling capacity. With higher resolution input data for the Sydney Basin project, including a more rigorous Landslide Inventory which is already well under development, higher resolution geology information and possibly even a better or more recent DEM, the regional yet large scale GIS-based Susceptibility modelling outcomes are likely to be suitable for use at Local Government Planning levels. Furthermore, susceptibility modelling at a national scale to identify preliminary or ‘first pass’ binary type (i.e., in/out) areas for further assessment is also achievable in the very near future

Designing a Landslide Database; lessons from Australian examples

The Australian Geomechanics Society 2007 Landslide Risk Management Guidelines stress the importance of developing inventories of landslides in order to underpin better land management decisions and facilitate landslide research . In the absence of a definitive (and published) data model for the inventory a number of landslide databases have been created in Australia to serve a range of purposes, all of which pre-date the guidelines. We outline a project undertaken to develop a website linking four disparate landslide databases together using network service oriented interoperability concepts and technology. From this project we have learned a number of important lessons. Digital landslide databases in our view should combine both spatial and non-spatial data and take advantage of the current information technology available. Unfortunately there is much research and design required before we have a satisfactory model to address a range of required functionality. Conceptual approaches require skill sets and technology that may be foreign to traditional geotechnical practitioners. We believe that there is merit in establishing an open forum to share, discuss and improve landslide database models. We list data concepts that need to be captured and offer examples of topological representations of various landslide types

Ultrathin Tropical Tropopause Clouds (UTTCs) : I. Cloud morphology and occurrence

Subvisible cirrus clouds (SVCs) may contribute to dehydration close to the tropical tropopause. The higher and colder SVCs and the larger their ice crystals, the more likely they represent the last efficient point of contact of the gas phase with the ice phase and, hence, the last dehydrating step, before the air enters the stratosphere. The first simultaneous in situ and remote sensing measurements of SVCs were taken during the APE-THESEO campaign in the western Indian ocean in February/March 1999. The observed clouds, termed Ultrathin Tropical Tropopause Clouds (UTTCs), belong to the geometrically and optically thinnest large-scale clouds in the Earth´s atmosphere. Individual UTTCs may exist for many hours as an only 200--300 m thick cloud layer just a few hundred meters below the tropical cold point tropopause, covering up to 105 km2. With temperatures as low as 181 K these clouds are prime representatives for defining the water mixing ratio of air entering the lower stratosphere

SCIAMACHY validation by aircraft remote measurements: design, execution, and first results of the SCIA-VALUE mission

International audienceFor the first time three different remote sensing instruments ? a sub-millimeter radiometer, a differential optical absorption spectrometer in the UV-visible spectral range, and a lidar ? were deployed aboard DLR's meteorological research aircraft Falcon 20 to validate a large number of SCIAMACHY level 2 and off-line data products such as O3, NO2, N2O, BrO, OClO, H2O, aerosols, and clouds. Within two main validation campaigns of the SCIA-VALUE mission (SCIAMACHY VALidation and Utilization Experiment) extended latitudinal cross-sections stretching from polar regions to the tropics as well as longitudinal cross sections at polar latitudes at about 70° N and the equator have been generated. This contribution gives an overview over the campaigns performed and reports on the observation strategy for achieving the validation goals. We also emphasize the synergetic use of the novel set of aircraft instrumentation and the usefulness of this innovative suite of remote sensing instruments for satellite validation

Global model simulations of air pollution during the 2003 European heat wave

Three global Chemistry Transport Models - MOZART, MOCAGE, and TM5 - as well as MOZART coupled to the IFS meteorological model including assimilation of ozone (O-3) and carbon monoxide (CO) satellite column retrievals, have been compared to surface measurements and MOZAIC vertical profiles in the troposphere over Western/Central Europe for summer 2003. The models reproduce the meteorological features and enhancement of pollution during the period 2-14 August, but not fully the ozone and CO mixing ratios measured during that episode. Modified normalised mean biases are around -25% (except similar to 5% for MOCAGE) in the case of ozone and from -80% to -30% for CO in the boundary layer above Frankfurt. The coupling and assimilation of CO columns from MOPITT overcomes some of the deficiencies in the treatment of transport, chemistry and emissions in MOZART, reducing the negative biases to around 20%. The high reactivity and small dry deposition velocities in MOCAGE seem to be responsible for the overestimation of O-3 in this model. Results from sensitivity simulations indicate that an increase of the horizontal resolution to around 1 degrees x1 degrees and potential uncertainties in European anthropogenic emissions or in long-range transport of pollution cannot completely account for the underestimation of CO and O-3 found for most models. A process-oriented TM5 sensitivity simulation where soil wetness was reduced results in a decrease in dry deposition fluxes and a subsequent ozone increase larger than the ozone changes due to the previous sensitivity runs. However this latest simulation still underestimates ozone during the heat wave and overestimates it outside that period. Most probably, a combination of the mentioned factors together with underrepresented biogenic emissions in the models, uncertainties in the modelling of vertical/horizontal transport processes in the proximity of the boundary layer as well as limitations of the chemistry schemes are responsible for the underestimation of ozone (overestimation in the case of MOCAGE) and CO found in the models during this extreme pollution event

Measurement and simulation of the 16/17 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash layer dispersion in the northern Alpine region

The spatial structure and the progression speed of the first ash layer from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano which reached Germany on 16/17 April is investigated from remote sensing data and numerical simulations. The ceilometer network of the German Meteorological Service was able to follow the progression of the ash layer over the whole of Germany. This first ash layer turned out to be a rather shallow layer of only several hundreds of metres thickness which was oriented slantwise in the middle troposphere and which was brought downward by large-scale sinking motion over Southern Germany and the Alps. Special Raman lidar measurements, trajectory analyses and in-situ observations from mountain observatories helped to confirm the volcanic origin of the detected aerosol layer. Ultralight aircraft measurements permitted the detection of the arrival of a second major flush of volcanic material in Southern Germany. Numerical simulations with the Eulerian meso-scale model MCCM were able to reproduce the temporal and spatial structure of the ash layer. Comparisons of the model results with the ceilometer network data on 17 April and with the ultralight aircraft data on 19 April were satisfying. This is the first example of a model validation study from this ceilometer network data

Global model simulations of air pollution during the 2003 European heat wave

Three global Chemistry Transport Models – MOZART, MOCAGE, and TM5 – as well as MOZART coupled to the IFS meteorological model including assimilation of ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and carbon monoxide (CO) satellite column retrievals, have been compared to surface measurements and MOZAIC vertical profiles in the troposphere over Western/Central Europe for summer 2003. The models reproduce the meteorological features and enhancement of pollution during the period 2–14 August, but not fully the ozone and CO mixing ratios measured during that episode. Modified normalised mean biases are around −25% (except ~5% for MOCAGE) in the case of ozone and from −80% to −30% for CO in the boundary layer above Frankfurt. The coupling and assimilation of CO columns from MOPITT overcomes some of the deficiencies in the treatment of transport, chemistry and emissions in MOZART, reducing the negative biases to around 20%. The high reactivity and small dry deposition velocities in MOCAGE seem to be responsible for the overestimation of O<sub>3</sub> in this model. Results from sensitivity simulations indicate that an increase of the horizontal resolution to around 1°×1° and potential uncertainties in European anthropogenic emissions or in long-range transport of pollution cannot completely account for the underestimation of CO and O<sub>3</sub> found for most models. A process-oriented TM5 sensitivity simulation where soil wetness was reduced results in a decrease in dry deposition fluxes and a subsequent ozone increase larger than the ozone changes due to the previous sensitivity runs. However this latest simulation still underestimates ozone during the heat wave and overestimates it outside that period. Most probably, a combination of the mentioned factors together with underrepresented biogenic emissions in the models, uncertainties in the modelling of vertical/horizontal transport processes in the proximity of the boundary layer as well as limitations of the chemistry schemes are responsible for the underestimation of ozone (overestimation in the case of MOCAGE) and CO found in the models during this extreme pollution event

Hypofractionated stereotactic re-irradiation: treatment option in recurrent malignant glioma

BACKGROUND: Hypofractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (HFSRT) is one salvage treatment option in previously irradiated patients with recurrent malignant glioma. We analyzed the results of HFSRT and prognostic factors in a single-institution series. METHODS: Between 1997 and 2003, 19 patients with recurrent malignant glioma (14 glioblastoma on most recent histology, 5 anaplastic astrocytoma) were treated with HFSRT. The median interval from post-operative radiotherapy to HFSRT was 19 (range 3–116) months, the median daily single dose 5 (4–10) Gy, the median total dose 30 (20–30) Gy and the median planning target volume 15 (4–70) ml. RESULTS: The median overall survival (OS) was 9.3 (1.9-77.6+) months from the time of HFSRT, 15.4 months for grade III and 7.9 months for grade IV tumors (p = 0.029, log-rank test). Two patients were alive at 34.6 and 77.6 months. OS was longer after a total dose of 30 Gy (11.1 months) than after total doses of <30 Gy (7.4 months; p = 0.051). Of five (26%) reoperations, none was performed for presumed or histologically predominant radiation necrosis. Median time to tumor progression after HFSRT on imaging was 4.9 months (1.3 to 37.3) months. CONCLUSION: HFSRT with conservative total doses of no more than 30 Gy is safe and leads to similar OS times as more aggressive treatment schemes. In individual patients, HFSRT in combination with other salvage treatment modalities, was associated with long-term survival

Influences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic plume on air quality in the northern Alpine region

A series of major eruptions of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland started on 14 April 2010 and continued until the end of May 2010. The volcanic emissions moved over nearly the whole of Europe and were observed first on 16 April 2010 in Southern Germany with different remote sensing systems from the ground and space. Enhanced PM10 and SO2 concentrations were detected on 17 April at mountain stations (Zugspitze/Schneefernerhaus and Schauinsland) as well as in Innsbruck by in situ measurement devices. On 19 April intensive vertical mixing and advection along with clear-sky conditions facilitated the entrainment of volcanic material down to the ground. The subsequent formation of a stably stratified lower atmosphere with limited mixing near the ground during the evening of 19 April led to an additional enhancement of near-surface particle concentrations. Consequently, on 19 April and 20 April exceedances of the daily threshold value for particulate matter (PM10) were reported at nearly all monitoring stations of the North Alpine foothills as well as at mountain and valley stations in the northern Alps. The chemical analyses of ambient PM10 at monitoring stations of the North Alpine foothills yielded elevated Titanium concentrations on 19/20 April which prove the presence of volcanic plume material. Following this result the PM10 threshold exceedances are also associated with the volcanic plume. The entrainment of the volcanic plume material mainly affected the concentrations of coarse particles (>1 μm) – interpreted as volcanic ash – and ultrafine particles (<100 nm), while the concentrations of accumulation mode aerosol (0.1–1 μm) were not changed significantly. With regard to the occurrence of ultrafine particles, it is concluded that their formation was triggered by high sulphuric acid concentrations which are necessarily generated by the photochemical processes in a plume rich in sulphur dioxide under high solar irradiance. It became evident that during the course of several days, the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic emissions influenced the near-surface atmosphere and thus the ambient air quality. Although the volcanic plume contributed to the overall exposure of the population of the northern Alpine region on two days, only minor effects on the exacerbation of respiratory and cardiovascular symptoms can be expected

Primary versus secondary contributions to particle number concentrations in the European boundary layer

It is important to understand the relative contribution of primary and secondary particles to regional and global aerosol so that models can attribute aerosol radiative forcing to different sources. In large-scale models, there is considerable uncertainty associated with treatments of particle formation (nucleation) in the boundary layer (BL) and in the size distribution of emitted primary particles, leading to uncertainties in predicted cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. Here we quantify how primary particle emissions and secondary particle formation influence size-resolved particle number concentrations in the BL using a global aerosol microphysics model and aircraft and ground site observations made during the May 2008 campaign of the European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate Air Quality Interactions (EUCAARI). We tested four different parameterisations for BL nucleation and two assumptions for the emission size distribution of anthropogenic and wildfire carbonaceous particles. When we emit carbonaceous particles at small sizes (as recommended by the Aerosol Intercomparison project, AEROCOM), the spatial distributions of campaign-mean number concentrations of particles with diameter >50 nm (N50) and >100 nm (N100) were well captured by the model (R2≥0.8) and the normalised mean bias (NMB) was also small (−18% for N50 and −1% for N100). Emission of carbonaceous particles at larger sizes, which we consider to be more realistic for low spatial resolution global models, results in equally good correlation but larger bias (R2≥0.8, NMB = −52% and −29%), which could be partly but not entirely compensated by BL nucleation. Within the uncertainty of the observations and accounting for the uncertainty in the size of emitted primary particles, BL nucleation makes a statistically significant contribution to CCN-sized particles at less than a quarter of the ground sites. Our results show that a major source of uncertainty in CCN-sized particles in polluted European air is the emitted size of primary carbonaceous particles. New information is required not just from direct observations, but also to determine the "effective emission size" and composition of primary particles appropriate for different resolution models