Epidemiology: a tool for the assessment of risk

The purpose of this chapter is to introduce and demonstrate the use of a key tool for the assessment of risk. The word epidemiology is derived from Greek and its literal interpretation is 'studies of people'. A more usual definition, however is the scientific study of disease patters among populations in time and space. This chapter introduces some of the techniques used in epidemiology studies and illustrates their uses in the evaluation or setting of microbiological guidelines for recreational water, wastewater reuse and drinking water

Evaluation of recreational health risk in coastal waters based on enterococcus densities and bathing patterns.

We constructed a simulation model to compute the incidences of highly credible gastrointestinal illness (HCGI) in recreational bathers at two intermittently contaminated beaches of Orange County, California. Assumptions regarding spatial and temporal bathing patterns were used to determine exposure levels over a 31-month study period. Illness rates were calculated by applying previously reported relationships between enterococcus density and HCGI risk to the exposure data. Peak enterococcus concentrations occurred in late winter and early spring, but model results showed that most HCGI cases occurred during summer, attributable to elevated number of exposures. Approximately 99% of the 95,010 illness cases occurred when beaches were open. Model runs were insensitive to 0-10% swimming activity assumed during beach closure days. Comparable illness rates resulted under clustered and uniform bather distribution scenarios. HCGI attack rates were within federal guidelines of tolerable risk when averaged over the study period. However, tolerable risk thresholds were exceeded for 27 total days and periods of at least 6 consecutive days. Illness estimates were sensitive to the functional form and magnitude of the enterococcus density-HCGI relationships. The results of this study contribute to an understanding of recreational health risk in coastal waters

Correlation between endometrial dating of luteal phase days 6 and 10 of the same menstrual cycle

CONTEXT: Endometrial maturation, important in the diagnosis of infertile couples, has been evaluated since 1950 using the Noyes criteria. Nevertheless, there is no consensus regarding the most suitable period of the luteal phase for performing the biopsy. OBJETIVE: This study evaluated the correlation between the histological dating of two endometrial biopsies performed in the same menstrual cycle, on luteal phase days six and ten.DESIGN: Prospective study. SETTING: Human Reproduction Division of the Federal University of São Paulo, referral center. PATIENTS:Twenty-five women complaining of infertility had their menstrual cycles monitored by ultrasound and LH plasma levels, to obtain evidence of ovulation. PROCEDURES: Endometrial biopsies were performed on luteal phase days LH+6 and LH+10 (luteal phase day 1 = LH+1 = the day that follows LH peak). Dating was done according to morphometric criteria, in which an endometrium sample is considered out of phase if the minimum maturation delay is one day. On day LH+6, blood was drawn for plasma progesterone level determination. RESULTS: All patients had an ovulatory cycle (mean LH peak: 47.4 U/L; mean follicular diameter on LH peak day: 18.9 mm; mean endometrial thickness on LH peak day: 10.3 mm; mean plasma progesterone level on day LH+6: 14.4 ng/ml). 14 patients had both biopsies in phase; 5 patients had out of phase biopsies only on day LH+6; 3 had out of phase biopsies only on day LH+10 and 3 patients had out of phase biopsies on both days. McNemar's test showed no statistical difference between these data (p>33.36%). CONCLUSIONS: The correlation found between the endometrial datings suggests that biopsies performed on either of these two days are suitable for evaluation of endometrial maturation.CONTEXTO: A verificação da maturidade endometrial, elemento diagnóstico necessário na avaliação do casal com queixa de infertilidade, vem sendo feita desde 1950 através do critério de datação histológica de Noyes. No entanto, não existe um consenso em relação ao período da fase lútea mais adequado para a colheita. OBJETIVO: Avaliar a correlação entre as datações histológicas de duas amostras de endométrio colhidas nos dias 6 e 10 da fase lútea de um mesmo ciclo menstrual. LOCAL: Setor de Reprodução Humana da Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP). TIPO DE ESTUDO: Estudo prospectivo. Constou da comparação entre duas datações de endométrio num mesmo ciclo menstrual. PARTICIPANTES: 25 pacientes com queixa de infertilidade tiveram um ciclo menstrual monitorizado por ultra-sonografia e medida plasmática de LH, para demonstração de ovulação. PROCEDIMENTO: Biópsias de endométrio foram feitas nos dias LH+6 e LH+10 da fase lútea, considerando-se o dia seguinte ao do pico de LH como LH+1. A datação foi feita de acordo com critério morfométrico, considerando-se o endométrio como fora de fase, se o atraso de maturação mínimo fosse de um dia. No dia LH+6 foi feita dosagem de progesterona plasmática. RESULTADOS: Todas as pacientes apresentaram ciclos ovulatórios (média dos valores de pico de LH: 47,3 U/L; média dos diâmetros foliculares no dia do pico de LH: 18,9 mm; média das espessuras do endométrio no dia do pico de LH: 10,3 mm; média das concentrações de progesterona plasmática no dia LH+6: 14,4 ng/ml.). Em 14 pacientes, as duas biópsias estavam em fase. Houve atraso de maturação apenas no dia LH+6 em cinco pacientes; apenas no dia LH+10 em três pacientes e, nos dois dias, em três pacientes. Não houve diferença estatística entre esses valores (teste de McNemar, p=33,36%). CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados sugerem que a colheita do endométrio em qualquer dos dias (sexto ou décimo) da fase lútea fornece resultados semelhantes em relação à maturidade endometrial.Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)UNIFESPSciEL

Risk stratification by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing improves outcomes following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery : a cohort study

Background: In 2009, the NHS evidence adoption center and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) published a review of the use of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). They recommended the development of a risk-assessment tool to help identify AAA patients with greater or lesser risk of operative mortality and to contribute to mortality prediction. A low anaerobic threshold (AT), which is a reliable, objective measure of pre-operative cardiorespiratory fitness, as determined by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is associated with poor surgical outcomes for major abdominal surgery. We aimed to assess the impact of a CPET-based risk-stratification strategy upon perioperative mortality, length of stay and non-operative costs for elective (open and endovascular) infra-renal AAA patients. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was undertaken. Pre-operative CPET-based selection for elective surgical intervention was introduced in 2007. An anonymized cohort of 230 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2007 to 2011) was studied. A historical control group of 128 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2003 to 2007) was identified for comparison. Comparative analysis of demographic and outcome data for CPET-pass (AT ≥ 11 ml/kg/min), CPET-fail (AT < 11 ml/kg/min) and CPET-submaximal (no AT generated) subgroups with control subjects was performed. Primary outcomes included 30-day mortality, survival and length of stay (LOS); secondary outcomes were non-operative inpatient costs. Results: Of 230 subjects, 188 underwent CPET: CPET-pass n = 131, CPET-fail n = 35 and CPET-submaximal n = 22. When compared to the controls, CPET-pass patients exhibited reduced median total LOS (10 vs 13 days for open surgery, n = 74, P < 0.01 and 4 vs 6 days for EVAR, n = 29, P < 0.05), intensive therapy unit requirement (3 vs 4 days for open repair only, P < 0.001), non-operative costs (£5,387 vs £9,634 for open repair, P < 0.001) and perioperative mortality (2.7% vs 12.6% (odds ratio: 0.19) for open repair only, P < 0.05). CPET-stratified (open/endovascular) patients exhibited a mid-term survival benefit (P < 0.05). Conclusion: In this retrospective cohort study, a pre-operative AT > 11 ml/kg/min was associated with reduced perioperative mortality (open cases only), LOS, survival and inpatient costs (open and endovascular repair) for elective infra-renal AAA surgery

Imprisonment and internment: Comparing penal facilities North and South

Recent references to the ‘warehouse prison’ in the United States and the prisión-depósito in Latin America seem to indicate that penal confinement in the western hemisphere has converged on a similar model. However, this article suggests otherwise. It contrasts penal facilities in North America and Latin America in terms of six interrelated aspects: regimentation; surveillance; isolation; supervision; accountability; and formalization. Quantitatively, control in North American penal facilities is assiduous (unceasing, persistent and intrusive), while in Latin America it is perfunctory (sporadic, indifferent and cursory). Qualitatively, North American penal facilities produce imprisonment (which enacts penal intervention through confinement), while in Latin America they produce internment (which enacts penal intervention through release). Closely entwined with this qualitative difference are distinct practices of judicial involvement in sentencing and penal supervision. Those practices, and the cultural and political factors that underpin them, represent an interesting starting point for the explanation of the contrasting nature of imprisonment and internment

Rapidly measured indicators of recreational water quality and swimming-associated illness at marine beaches: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>In the United States and elsewhere, recreational water quality is monitored for fecal indicator bacteria to help prevent swimming-associated illnesses. Standard methods to measure these bacteria take at least 24 hours to obtain results. Molecular approaches such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) can estimate these bacteria faster, in under 3 hours. Previously, we demonstrated that measurements of the fecal indicator bacteria <it>Enterococcus </it>using qPCR were associated with gastrointestinal (GI) illness among swimmers at freshwater beaches. In this paper, we report on results from three marine beach sites.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We interviewed beach-goers and collected water samples at marine beaches affected by treated sewage discharges in Mississippi in 2005, and Rhode Island and Alabama in 2007. Ten to twelve days later, we obtained information about gastrointestinal, respiratory, eye, ear and skin symptoms by telephone. We tested water samples for fecal indicator organisms using qPCR and other methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We enrolled 6,350 beach-goers. The occurrence of GI illness among swimmers was associated with a log₁₀-increase in exposure to qPCR-determined estimates of fecal indicator organisms in the genus <it>Enterococcus </it>(AOR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.1) and order <it>Bacteroidales </it>(AOR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.3-2.9). Estimates of organisms related to <it>Clostridium perfringens </it>and a subgroup of organisms in the genus <it>Bacteroides </it>were also determined by qPCR in 2007, as was F+ coliphage, but relationships between these indicators and illness were not statistically significant.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study provides the first evidence of a relationship between gastrointestinal illness and estimates of fecal indicator organisms determined by qPCR at marine beaches.</p

A survey of emergency department use in patients with cyclic vomiting syndrome

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cyclic vomiting syndrome (CVS), a chronic disorder characterized by recurrent episodes of vomiting, is frequently unrecognized and is associated with high utilization of emergency department (ED) services.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A web-based survey was posted on the Cyclic Vomiting Syndrome Association (CVSA) website to assess utilization of ED services in patients with CVS.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 251 respondents, 104 (41.4%) were adult CVS patients and 147 (58.6%) were caregivers of pediatric and adult patients. In the adult group, the median number of ED visits for CVS symptoms was 15(range 1 - 200), with a median of 7 ED visits prior to a diagnosis of CVS (range 0 - 150). In the caregiver group, the median number of ED visits was 10 (range 1 - 175) and the median number of ED visits prior to a diagnosis of CVS was 5 (range 0 - 65). CVS was not diagnosed in the ED in 89/104 (93%) adults and 119/147 (93%) patients in the caregiver group. CVS was not recognized in the ED in 84/95 (88%) of adults and 97/122 (80%) of patients in the caregiver group, despite an established diagnosis of CVS.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There is a sub-group of adult and pediatric CVS patients who are high utilizers of ED services and CVS is not recognized in the ED in the majority of patients. Improved efforts to educate ED physicians are indicated to optimize treatment of patients with CVS and to decrease potential overuse of ED services.</p

Circadian changes and sex-related differences in fetal heart rate parameters

BACKGROUND: Previous researchers have studied circadian changes in the fetal heart rate (FHR) on small sample sizes and in a strictly controlled environment. This study was undertaken to investigate these changes during the late second and third trimesters, using a portable fetal electrocardiogram recording device (Monica AN24) in pregnant women in home and hospital environments with unrestricted mobility. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 54 pregnant women with uncomplicated singleton pregnancies between 25 and 40 weeks gestation. FHR recordings were made up to 16 h at home or in the hospital setting in the United Kingdom. FHR data over 90 min periods were averaged and the day (7:00 am-11:00 pm) and night (11:00 pm-7:00 am) data from the same individual were compared. Data were examined for evidence of sex-related differences. RESULTS: During the night, there was a significant reduction in basal heart rate (bFHR) and a significant increase in short term variation (STV) and long term variation (LTV) (P < 0.05). Basal FHR decreased (P < 0.002), whereas LTV increased (P = 0.014) with advancing gestation. Male fetuses showed greater day: night variation than females regardless of gestation (P = 0.014). There was a higher bFHR in fetuses monitored during the day in hospital (P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that there are sex-, environment and time-related differences in the FHR parameters measured. These differences may need to be considered taken when interpreting FHR data

Mixed-method tutoring support improves learning outcomes of veterinary students in basic subjects

P. 1-10Tutoring is a useful tool in the university teaching-learning binomial, although its development is impaired in large classes. Recent improvements in information and communication technologies have made tutoring possible via the Internet. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of mixed-method academic tutoring in two basic subjects in Veterinary Science studies at the University of León (Spain) to optimize the usefulness of tutoring support in the college environment. This quasi-experimental study was firstly carried out as a pilot study in a small group of tutored students of “Cytology and Histology” (CH) (47/186; 25.3%) and “Veterinary Pharmacology” (VP) (33/141; 23.4%) subjects, and was implemented in a large class of CH the next academic year (150 students) while comparing the results with those obtained in a previous tutorless course (162 students). Tutored students were given access to online questionnaires with electronic feedback on each subject. In addition to traditional tutoring carried out in both tutored and tutorless students, the pilot study included three sessions of face-to-face tutoring in order to monitor the progress of students. Its efficacy was assessed by monitoring students’ examination scores and attendance as well as a satisfaction survey. Online tutoring support, together with conventional teaching methods, may be a useful method to incorporate student-centered learning in basic subjects in Veterinary Science.S

Location of residence associated with the likelihood of patient visit to the preoperative assessment clinic

BACKGROUND: Outpatient preoperative assessment clinics were developed to provide an efficient assessment of surgical patients prior to surgery, and have demonstrated benefits to patients and the health care system. However, the centralization of preoperative assessment clinics may introduce geographical barriers to utilization that are dependent on where a patient lives with respect to the location of the preoperative assessment clinic. METHODS: The association between geographical distance from a patient's place of residence to the preoperative assessment clinic, and the likelihood of a patient visit to the clinic prior to surgery, was assessed for all patients undergoing surgery at a tertiary health care centre in a major Canadian city. The odds of attending the preoperative clinic were adjusted for patient characteristics and clinical factors. RESULTS: Patients were less likely to visit the preoperative assessment clinic prior to surgery as distance from the patient's place of residence to the clinic increased (adjusted OR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.44–0.63 for distances between 50–100 km, and OR = 0.26, 95% CI 0.21–0.31 for distances greater than 250 km). This 'distance decay' effect was remarkable for all surgical specialties. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrates that the likelihood of a patient visiting the preoperative assessment clinic appears to depend on the geographical location of patients' residences. Patients who live closest to the clinic tend to be seen more often than patients who live in rural and remote areas. This observation may have implications for achieving the goals of equitable access, and optimal patient care and resource utilization in a single universal insurer health care system