A paleoecological context to assess the development of oak forest in Colombia: A comment on Zorilla-Azcué, S., Gonzalez-Rodríguez, A., Oyama, K., González, M.A., & Rodríguez-Correa, H., The DNA history of a lonely oak: Quercus humboldtii phylogeography in the Colombian Andes. Ecology and Evolution 2021, doi: 10.100-2/ ece3.7529

The present “comment” on Zorilla-Azcué et al.’s paper “The DNA history of a lonely oak: Quercus humboldtii phylogeography in the Colombian Andes. Ecology and Evolution 2021, doi:10.100-2/ece3.7529” provides the paleoecological understanding of oak forest since Quercus became apparent in the Northern Andes three glacial–interglacial cycles ago. The interpretation of phylogeographical data is placed in an up-to-date paleoecological context. We arrived at sharper conclusions how genetic diversity between Q. humboldtii populations might have been driven by the dynamic environmental theatre of the recent Pleistocene. This paleoecological context also serves the potential future analyses of other arboreal taxa from the Andean montane forest belt. We show that hypotheses to be tested should grow out of phylogenetic analysis and paleoecological understanding together.publishedVersio

60 years of scientific deep drilling in Colombia: The north Andean guide to the Quaternary

We sketch the initial history of collecting deep cores in terrestrial and marine sedimentary basins and ice cores to study environmental and climate change. Subsequently, we focus on the development of long records from the Northern Andes. The 586 m long pollen record from ancient Lake Bogotá reflects the last 2.25 × 106 years with ∼ 1.2 kyr resolution, whereas the sediment core reflects almost the complete Quaternary. The 58 m long composite core from Lake Fúquene covers the last 284 ka with ∼ 60 years resolution. We address the various challenges and limitations of working with deep continental cores. For the tropics, the presence of these deep cores has made the Northern Andes a key area in developing and testing hypotheses in the fields of ecology, paleobiogeography, and climate change. We summarize the results in the figures, and for details on the paleoenvironmental reconstructions, we refer to the corresponding literature. We provide an overview of the literature on long continental records from all continents (see the Supplement). Based on our 50 years of experience in continental core drilling, developing a research capacity to analyze the large amounts of samples, and keeping a team together to publish the results, we listed suggestions in support of deep continental records aimed at studying environmental and climate change over long intervals of time.publishedVersio

Ecosystem services show variable responses to future climate conditions in the Colombian páramos

Background: The páramos, the high-elevation ecosystems of the northern Andes, are well-known for their high species richness and provide a variety of ecosystem services to local subsistence-based communities and regional urbanizations. Climate change is expected to negatively affect the provision of these services, but the level of this impact is still unclear. Here we assess future climate change impact on the ecosystem services provided by the critically important páramos of the department of Boyacá in Colombia, of which over 25% of its territory is páramo. Methods: We first performed an extensive literature review to identify useful species of Boyacá, and selected 103 key plant species that, based on their uses, support the provision of ecosystem services in the páramos. We collated occurrence information for each key species and using a Mahalanobis distance approach we applied climate niche modelling for current and future conditions. Results: We show an overall tendency of reduction in area for all ecosystem services under future climate conditions (mostly a loss of 10% but reaching up to a loss of 40%), but we observe also increases, and responses differ in intensity loss. Services such as Food for animals, Material and Medicinal, show a high range of changes that includes both positive and negative outcomes, while for Food for humans the responses are mostly substantially negative. Responses are less extreme than those projected for individual species but are often complex because a given ecosystem service is provided by several species. As the level of functional or ecological redundancy between species is not yet known, there is an urgency to expand our knowledge on páramos ecosystem services for more species. Our results are crucial for decision-makers, social and conservation organizations to support sustainable strategies to monitor and mitigate the potential consequences of climate change for human livelihoods in mountainous settings.publishedVersio

Rate-of-change analysis in palaeoecology revisited: a new approach

Dynamics in the rate of compositional change (rate-of-change; RoC), preserved in paleoecological sequences, are thought to reflect changes due to exogenous (climate and human forcing) or endogenous (local dynamics and biotic interactions) drivers. However, changes in sedimentation rates and sampling strategies can result in an uneven distribution of time intervals and are known to affect RoC estimates. Furthermore, there has been relatively little exploration of the implications of these challenges in quantifying RoC in paleoecology. Here, we introduce R-Ratepol – an easy-to-use R package – that provides a robust numerical technique for detecting and summarizing RoC patterns in complex multivariate time-ordered stratigraphical sequences. First, we compare the performance of common methods of estimating RoC and detecting periods of high RoC (peak-point) using simulated pollen-stratigraphical data with known patterns of compositional change and temporal resolution. In addition, we propose a new method of binning with a moving window, which shows a more than 5-fold increase in the correct detection of peak-points compared to the more traditional way of using individual levels. Next, we apply our new methodology to four representative European pollen sequences and show that our approach also performs well in detecting periods of significant compositional change during known onsets of human activity, early land-use transformation, and changes in fire frequency. Expanding the approach using R-Ratepol to open-access paleoecological datasets in global databases, such as Neotoma, will allow future paleoecological and macroecological studies to quantify major changes in biotic composition or in sets of abiotic variables across broad spatiotemporal scales.publishedVersio

A guide to the processing and standardization of global palaeoecological data for large-scale syntheses using fossil pollen

Aim: Palaeoecological data are crucial for comprehending large-scale biodiversity patterns and the natural and anthropogenic drivers that influence them over time. Over the last decade, the availability of open-access research databases of palaeoecological proxies has substantially increased. These databases open the door to research questions needing advanced numerical analyses and modelling based on big-data compilations. However, compiling and analysing palaeoecological data pose unique challenges that require a guide for producing standardized and reproducible compilations. Innovation: We present a step-by-step guide of how to process fossil pollen data into a standardized dataset compilation ready for macroecological and palaeoecological analyses. We describe successive criteria that will enhance the quality of the compilations. Though these criteria are project and research question-dependent, we discuss the most important assumptions that should be considered and adjusted accordingly. Our guide is accompanied by an R-workflow—called FOSSILPOL—and corresponding R-package—called R-Fossilpol—that provide a detailed protocol ready for interdisciplinary users. We illustrate the workflow by sourcing and processing Scandinavian fossil pollen datasets and show the reproducibility of continental-scale data processing. Main Conclusions: The study of biodiversity and macroecological patterns through time and space requires large-scale syntheses of palaeoecological datasets. The data preparation for such syntheses must be transparent and reproducible. With our FOSSILPOL workflow and R-package, we provide a protocol for optimal handling of large compilations of fossil pollen datasets and workflow reproducibility. Our workflow is also relevant for the compilation and synthesis of other palaeoecological proxies and as such offers a guide for synthetic and cross-disciplinary analyses with macroecological, biogeographical and palaeoecological perspectives. However, we emphasize that expertise and informed decisions based on palaeoecological knowledge remain crucial for high-quality data syntheses and should be strongly embedded in studies that rely on the increasing amount of open-access palaeoecological data.publishedVersio

Exploring spatio-temporal patterns of palynological changes in Asia during the Holocene

Historical legacies influence present-day ecosystem composition and dynamics. It is therefore important to understand the long-term dynamics of ecosystems and their properties. Analysis of ecosystem properties during the Holocene using fossil pollen assemblages provides valuable insights into past ecosystem dynamics by summarising so-called pollen-assemblage properties (PAPs). Using 205 fossil pollen data-sets (records), we quantify eight PAPs [pollen-taxonomic richness, diversity, evenness, pollen-compositional turnover, pollen-compositional change, and rate of pollen-compositional change (RoC)] for the Asian continent at different spatial scales (in individual records, within and across climate-zones, and within the continent) and time (temporal patterns over the past 12,000 years). Regression tree (RT) partitioning of the PAP-estimates using sample-age as a sole predictor revealed the “change-point(s)” (time or sample-age of major change in a PAP). We estimated the density of RT and multivariate regression tree (MRT) change-points in 1,000-year time bins during the Holocene. Pollen-compositional turnover (range of sample scores along the first DCCA axis) and change (number of MRT partitions) in each record reveal gradual spatial variation across latitude and a decline with longitude eastward. Temporally, compositional turnover declines linearly throughout the Holocene at all spatial scales. Other PAPs are heterogeneous across and within spatial scales, being more detectable at coarser scales. RT and MRT change-point density is broadly consistent in climate-zones and the continent, increasing from the early- to mid-Holocene, and mostly decrease from the mid-Holocene to the present for all PAPs. The heterogenous patterns in PAPs across the scales of study most likely reflect responses to variations in regional environmental conditions, anthropogenic land-use, and their interactions over space and time. Patterns at the climate-zone and continental scales indicate a gradual but congruent decline in major PAPs such as compositional turnover, rate of compositional change, and major temporal compositional changes (MRT) during the Holocene, especially during recent millennia, suggesting that vegetation in Asia has become progressively more homogenous. Data properties (e.g., spatial distribution of the records, distribution of samples within the records, and data-standardisation and analytical approaches) may also have partly influenced the results. It is critically important to evaluate the data properties and the approaches to data standardisation and summarisation.publishedVersio

Approaches to pollen taxonomic harmonisation in Quaternary palynology

Pollen taxonomic harmonisation involves the standardisation of the nomenclature of pollen and fern spores with similar morphotypes at the determination level that is common to all grains or spores with that morphotype within the pollen sequence(s) of interest. Such harmonisation is required prior to subsequent investigations such as numerical analysis, comparing, mapping, synthesis, and environmental reconstruction involving several pollen sequences. Here we present two approaches to harmonisation. These are a ‘top-down’ and a ‘bottom-up’ approach. The bottom-up approach is preferred. It is based on the concept of the regional pollen flora for the sequence(s) in the spatial area(s) of study. We present bottom-up harmonisation tables for the continental or sub-continental scales developed for the Humans on Planet Earth (HOPE) project. The tables are for North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia (three parts), and Indo-Pacific. These harmonisations are project-specific and sequence-specific, relating to the geographical area and to the sequences in the area under consideration, both of which are linked to the research questions being addressed. A new bottom-up harmonisation with a consistent taxonomic level and nomenclature is needed when additional sequences or areas are added. However, the HOPE tables can serve as a starting point for further research involving multi-sequence analyses or syntheses.publishedVersio

Updated site compilation of the Latin American Pollen Database

Flantua, Suzette G A et al.The updated inventory of the Latin American Pollen Database (LAPD) offers a wide range of new insights. This paper presents a systematic compilation of palynological research in Latin America. A comprehensive inventory of publications in peer-reviewed and grey literature shows a major expansion of studies over the last decades. The inventory includes 1379 cores and sections with paleoecological data and more than 4800 modern samples from throughout the continent. Through the years, pollen datasets extend over increasing spans of time and show improved taxonomic and temporal resolution. Currently, these datasets are from 12 modern biomes and 30 countries, covering an altitudinal range of 0 to 6300. m asl. The most densely sampled regions are the Colombian Andes, the southeast coast of Brazil, and Patagonia. Underrepresented biomes are the warm temperate mixed forest (3%), dry forests (3%), and warm temperate rainforest (1%); whereas steppe, tropical rainforest, and cool grass shrublands, such as the páramos, are generally well represented (all >. 17%). There are 126 records that span the late Pleistocene to the Last Glacial Maximum transition (21,000. cal. yr BP), and >. 20% of the records cover the Younger Dryas interval and the Pleistocene/Holocene transition. Reanalysis of numerous sites using multiproxy tools emphasize the informative value of this approach in paleoenvironmental reconstruction. We make suggestions for several pollen sites and regions to be visited again; similarly we identify some key research questions that have yet to be answered. The updated LAPD now provides the platform to support an exciting new phase of global palynological research in which multi-site data are being integrated to address current cutting-edge research questions. The LAPD compilation of sites and the literature database will be available through the Neotoma Paleoecology Database website and a new LAPD website by the end of 2015We thank the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO, grant 2012/13248/ALW) for financial support of this project.Peer reviewe

Diversification in evolutionary arenas : Assessment and synthesis

Understanding how and why rates of evolutionary diversification vary is a central issue in evolutionary biology and ecology. The concept of adaptive radiation has attracted much interest, but is metaphorical and verbal in nature, making it difficult to quantitatively compare different evolutionary lineages or geographic regions. In addition, the causes of evolutionary stasis are relatively neglected. Here we review the central concepts in the evolutionary diversification literature and bring these together by proposing a general framework for estimating rates of diversification and quantifying their underlying dynamics, which can be applied across clades and regions and across spatial and temporal scales. Our framework describes the diversification rate (d) as a function of the abiotic environment (a), the biotic environment (b) and clade-specific phenotypes or traits (c); thus d~a,b,c. We refer to the four components (a-d) and their interactions collectively as the 'Evolutionary Arena'. We outline analytical approaches to this conceptual model that open up new avenues for research, and present a case study on conifers, for which we parameterise the general model. We also discuss three conceptual examples based on existing literature: the Lupinus radiation in the Andes in the context of emerging ecological opportunity and fluctuating fragmentation due to climatic oscillation; oceanic island radiations in the context of archipelago isolation and island formation and erosion; and biotically driven radiations of the Mediterranean orchid genus Ophrys. The results of the conifer case study are consistent with the long-standing scenario that large niches, lack of competition, and high-rates of niche evolution differentially promote diversification, but these results go further by quantifying the statistical interactions between variables representing these three drivers. The conceptual examples illustrate how using the synthetic Evolutionary Arena framework results in highlighting gaps in current knowledge, and thus help to identify future directions for research on evolutionary radiations. In this way, the Evolutionary Arena framework promotes a more general understanding of variation in evolutionary rates by making quantitative results comparable between case studies, thereby allowing new syntheses of evolutionary and ecological processes to emerge

Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities

Aim: Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Location: Andes. Taxon: Plants. Methods: We (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models. Results: Future climatic changes (2040–2070) are projected to be stronger at high-elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst-case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%–23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high-elevation areas, a lack of high-resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling. Main conclusions: Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region-wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes.publishedVersio