Clinical Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Strategies for Adults Experiencing Sheltered Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance: Approximately 356 000 people stay in homeless shelters nightly in the United States. They have high risk of contracting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). / Objective: To assess the estimated clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness associated with strategies for COVID-19 management among adults experiencing sheltered homelessness. / Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytic model used a simulated cohort of 2258 adults residing in homeless shelters in Boston, Massachusetts. Cohort characteristics and costs were adapted from Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program. Disease progression, transmission, and outcomes data were taken from published literature and national databases. Surging, growing, and slowing epidemics (effective reproduction numbers [Re], 2.6, 1.3, and 0.9, respectively) were examined. Costs were from a health care sector perspective, and the time horizon was 4 months, from April to August 2020. / Exposures: Daily symptom screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of individuals with positive symptom screening results, universal PCR testing every 2 weeks, hospital-based COVID-19 care, alternative care sites (ACSs) for mild or moderate COVID-19, and temporary housing were each compared with no intervention. / Main Outcomes and Measures: Cumulative infections and hospital-days, costs to the health care sector (US dollars), and cost-effectiveness, as incremental cost per case of COVID-19 prevented. / Results: The simulated population of 2258 sheltered homeless adults had a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (9.04) years. Compared with no intervention, daily symptom screening with ACSs for pending tests or confirmed COVID-19 and mild or moderate disease was associated with 37% fewer infections (1954 vs 1239) and 46% lower costs ($6.10 million vs$3.27 million) at an Re of 2.6, 75% fewer infections (538 vs 137) and 72% lower costs ($1.46 million vs$0.41 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 51% fewer infections (174 vs 85) and 51% lower costs ($0.54 million vs$0.26 million) at an Re of 0.9. Adding PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with a further decrease in infections; incremental cost per case prevented was $1000 at an Re of 2.6,$27 000 at an Re of 1.3, and $71 000 at an Re of 0.9. Temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was most effective but substantially more expensive than other options. Compared with no intervention, temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was associated with 81$39.12 million) at an Re of 2.6, 82% fewer infections (95) and 2568% higher costs ($38.97 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 59$38.94 million) at an Re of 0.9. Results were sensitive to cost and sensitivity of PCR and ACS efficacy in preventing transmission. / Conclusions and Relevance: In this modeling study of simulated adults living in homeless shelters, daily symptom screening and ACSs were associated with fewer severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and decreased costs compared with no intervention. In a modeled surging epidemic, adding universal PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with further decrease in SARS-CoV-2 infections at modest incremental cost and should be considered during future surges

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa

Background Healthcare resource constraints in low and middle-income countries necessitate selection of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. Methods We developed a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Interventions assessed were Healthcare Testing (HT), where diagnostic testing is performed only for those presenting to healthcare centres; Contact Tracing (CT) in households of cases; Isolation Centres (IC), for cases not requiring hospitalisation; community health worker-led Mass Symptom Screening and diagnostic testing for symptomatic individuals (MS); and Quarantine Centres (QC), for contacts who test negative. Given uncertainties about epidemic dynamics in South Africa, we evaluated two main epidemic scenarios over 360 days, with effective reproduction numbers (R e ) of 1.5 and 1.2. We compared HT, HT+CT, HT+CT+IC, HT+CT+IC+MS, HT+CT+IC+QC, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC, considering strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) <US$1,290/year-of-life saved (YLS) to be cost-effective. Findings With R e 1.5, HT resulted in the most COVID-19 deaths and lowest costs over 360 days. Compared with HT, HT+CT+IC+MS reduced mortality by 76$350/YLS). HT+CT+IC+MS+QC provided the greatest reduction in mortality, but increased costs by 95% compared with HT+CT+IC+MS and was not cost-effective (ICER $8,000/YLS). With R e 1.2, HT+CT+IC+MS was the least costly strategy, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC was not cost-effective (ICER$294,320/YLS). Interpretation In South Africa, a strategy of household contact tracing, isolation, and mass symptom screening would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and be cost-effective. Adding quarantine centres for COVID-19 contacts is not cost-effective

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study

Background: Health-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods: We compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number (Re) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an Re of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters (Re values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections. Findings: When Re was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94$340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When Re was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which Re was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced. Interpretation: In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and would be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations

IDH-mutant glioma specific association of rs55705857 located at 8q24.21 involves MYC deregulation

The single nucleotide polymorphism rs55705857, located in a non-coding but evolutionarily conserved region at 8q24.21, is strongly associated with IDH-mutant glioma development and was suggested to be a causal variant. However, the molecular mechanism underlying this association has remained unknown. With a case control study in 285 gliomas, 316 healthy controls, 380 systemic cancers, 31 other CNS-tumors, and 120 IDH-mutant cartilaginous tumors, we identified that the association was specific to IDH-mutant gliomas. Odds-ratios were 9.25 (5.17–16.52; 95% CI) for IDH-mutated gliomas and 12.85 (5.94–27.83; 95% CI) for IDH-mutated, 1p/19q co-deleted gliomas. Decreasing strength with increasing anaplasia implied a modulatory effect. No somatic mutations were noted at this locus in 114 blood-tumor pairs, nor was there a copy number difference between risk-allele and only-ancestral allele carriers. CCDC26 RNA-expression was rare and not different between the two groups. There were only minor subtype-specific differences in common glioma driver genes. RNA sequencing and LC-MS/MS comparisons pointed to significantly altered MYC-signaling. Baseline enhancer activity of the conserved region specifically on the MYC promoter and its further positive modulation by the SNP risk-allele was shown in vitro. Our findings implicate MYC deregulation as the underlying cause of the observed association

Persistent Cell Motion in the Absence of External Signals: A Search Strategy for Eukaryotic Cells

Eukaryotic cells are large enough to detect signals and then orient to them by differentiating the signal strength across the length and breadth of the cell. Amoebae, fibroblasts, neutrophils and growth cones all behave in this way. Little is known however about cell motion and searching behavior in the absence of a signal. Is individual cell motion best characterized as a random walk? Do individual cells have a search strategy when they are beyond the range of the signal they would otherwise move toward? Here we ask if single, isolated, Dictyostelium and Polysphondylium amoebae bias their motion in the absence of external cues. We placed single well-isolated Dictyostelium and Polysphondylium cells on a nutrient-free agar surface and followed them at 10 sec intervals for ~10 hr, then analyzed their motion with respect to velocity, turning angle, persistence length, and persistence time, comparing the results to the expectation for a variety of different types of random motion. We find that amoeboid behavior is well described by a special kind of random motion: Amoebae show a long persistence time (~10 min) beyond which they start to lose their direction; they move forward in a zig-zag manner; and they make turns every 1-2 min on average. They bias their motion by remembering the last turn and turning away from it. Interpreting the motion as consisting of runs and turns, the duration of a run and the amplitude of a turn are both found to be exponentially distributed. We show that this behavior greatly improves their chances of finding a target relative to performing a random walk. We believe that other eukaryotic cells may employ a strategy similar to Dictyostelium when seeking conditions or signal sources not yet within range of their detection system.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in PLOS On

Continuous Multi-Parameter Heart Rate Variability Analysis Heralds Onset of Sepsis in Adults

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of sepsis enables timely resuscitation and antibiotics and prevents subsequent morbidity and mortality. Clinical approaches relying on point-in-time analysis of vital signs or lab values are often insensitive, non-specific and late diagnostic markers of sepsis. Exploring otherwise hidden information within intervals-in-time, heart rate variability (HRV) has been documented to be both altered in the presence of sepsis, and correlated with its severity. We hypothesized that by continuously tracking individual patient HRV over time in patients as they develop sepsis, we would demonstrate reduced HRV in association with the onset of sepsis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We monitored heart rate continuously in adult bone marrow transplant (BMT) patients (n = 21) beginning a day before their BMT and continuing until recovery or withdrawal (12+/-4 days). We characterized HRV continuously over time with a panel of time, frequency, complexity, and scale-invariant domain techniques. We defined baseline HRV as mean variability for the first 24 h of monitoring and studied individual and population average percentage change (from baseline) over time in diverse HRV metrics, in comparison with the time of clinical diagnosis and treatment of sepsis (defined as systemic inflammatory response syndrome along with clinically suspected infection requiring treatment). Of the 21 patients enrolled, 4 patients withdrew, leaving 17 patients who completed the study. Fourteen patients developed sepsis requiring antibiotic therapy, whereas 3 did not. On average, for 12 out of 14 infected patients, a significant (25%) reduction prior to the clinical diagnosis and treatment of sepsis was observed in standard deviation, root mean square successive difference, sample and multiscale entropy, fast Fourier transform, detrended fluctuation analysis, and wavelet variability metrics. For infected patients (n = 14), wavelet HRV demonstrated a 25% drop from baseline 35 h prior to sepsis on average. For 3 out of 3 non-infected patients, all measures, except root mean square successive difference and entropy, showed no significant reduction. Significant correlation was present amongst these HRV metrics for the entire population. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Continuous HRV monitoring is feasible in ambulatory patients, demonstrates significant HRV alteration in individual patients in association with, and prior to clinical diagnosis and treatment of sepsis, and merits further investigation as a means of providing early warning of sepsis

Novel Mouse Model Reveals Distinct Activity-Dependent and –Independent Contributions to Synapse Development

The balanced action of both pre- and postsynaptic organizers regulates the formation of neuromuscular junctions (NMJ). The precise mechanisms that control the regional specialization of acetylcholine receptor (AChR) aggregation, guide ingrowing axons and contribute to correct synaptic patterning are unknown. Synaptic activity is of central importance and to understand synaptogenesis, it is necessary to distinguish between activity-dependent and activity-independent processes. By engineering a mutated fetal AChR subunit, we used homologous recombination to develop a mouse line that expresses AChR with massively reduced open probability during embryonic development. Through histological and immunochemical methods as well as electrophysiological techniques, we observed that endplate anatomy and distribution are severely aberrant and innervation patterns are completely disrupted. Nonetheless, in the absence of activity AChRs form postsynaptic specializations attracting motor axons and permitting generation of multiple nerve/muscle contacts on individual fibers. This process is not restricted to a specialized central zone of the diaphragm and proceeds throughout embryonic development. Phenotypes can be attributed to separate activity-dependent and -independent pathways. The correct patterning of synaptic connections, prevention of multiple contacts and control of nerve growth require AChR-mediated activity. In contrast, myotube survival and acetylcholine-mediated dispersal of AChRs are maintained even in the absence of AChR-mediated activity. Because mouse models in which acetylcholine is entirely absent do not display similar effects, we conclude that acetylcholine binding to the AChR initiates activity-dependent and activity-independent pathways whereby the AChR modulates formation of the NMJ

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Megascopic Quantum Phenomena. A Critical Study of Physical Interpretations

A megascopic revalidation is offered providing responses and resolutions of current inconsistencies and existing contradictions in present-day quantum theory. As the core of this study we present an independent proof of the Goldstone theorem for a quantum field formulation of molecules and solids. Along with phonons two types of new quasiparticles appear: rotons and translons. In full analogy with Lorentz covariance, combining space and time coordinates, a new covariance is necessary, binding together the internal and external degrees of freedom, without explicitly separating the centre-of-mass, which normally applies in both classical and quantum formulations. The generally accepted view regarding the lack of a simple correspondence between the Goldstone modes and broken symmetries, has significant consequences: an ambiguous BCS theory as well as a subsequent Higgs mechanism. The application of the archetype of the classical spontaneous symmetry breaking, i.e. the Mexican hat, as compared to standard quantum relations, i.e. the Jahn-Teller effect, superconductivity or the Higgs mechanism, becomes a disparity. In short, symmetry broken states have a microscopic causal origin, but transitions between them have a teleological component. The different treatments of the problem of the centre of gravity in quantum mechanics and in field theories imply a second type of Bohr complementarity on the many-body level opening the door for megascopic representations of all basic microscopic quantum axioms with further readings for teleonomic megascopic quantum phenomena, which have no microscopic rationale: isomeric transitions, Jahn-Teller effect, chemical reactions, Einstein-de Haas effect, superconductivity-superfluidity, and brittle fracture.Comment: 117 pages, 17 sections, final revised version from 20 May 2019 but uploaded after the DOI was know