Nest characteristics, breeding dispersal, and nest defence behaviour of Northern Flickers in relation to nest predation

I studied nest characteristics, breeding dispersal, and nest defence behaviour of Northern Flickers (Colaptes auratus, hereafter flickers) in central interior British Columbia with respect to nest predation. My research focused on three questions: (1) Are there nest characteristics associated with the risk of nest predation and nest loss to European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris)? (2) Does nest predation influence breeding dispersal? (3) Do parental attributes influence nest defence behaviour? An examination of flicker nest-site characteristics at five spatial scales revealed that nests were safer from mammalian predators (N=81) when they were higher, concealed by vegetation, farther from continuous coniferous forest blocks, and contained fewer conifers within the nesting clump. Proximity to conifers increased predation risk, but nests safe from competitors (N=18) were closer to coniferous forest blocks and contained a higher percentage of conifers in the nesting clump. Flickers face a trade-off between being safe from predators and safe from competitors. Nesting success did not influence between-year breeding dispersal by 159 male or 76 female flickers. Because nests and forest clumps were not predictably safe from predators, benefits of dispersing likely outweigh costs. Other factors such as mate-switching, nest ectoparasites, and a fluctuating food source may play larger roles in dispersal than nest predation. Within years, 73% of pairs switched nest sites after their first attempt failed due to predation (N=37); however, there was no reproductive advantage for these pairs compared to pairs that remained at their original nest. Stressful encounters with predators involving nest defence may trigger dispersal, although it seems to offer no greater nest success. Of 24 flicker pairs presented with a control model before egg-laying, 3 pairs abandoned their nest, whereas 4 out of 24 pairs presented with a squirrel model abandoned their nest. This suggests that a one-time encounter with a nest predator is not a sufficient deterrent against continued nesting. Rather, costs of finding and excavating or renovating a new cavity may cause individuals to tolerate some risk in nesting at a location with an active predator. In experimental trials (N=94), intensity of nest defence behaviour against a model predator was not related to the sex, age, body size, and body condition of the defending adult(s). The sexes may have behaved similarly because they are similar in size and have similar survival patterns. Costs and benefits of nest defence for flickers of different ages may also be equal because flickers are relatively short-lived and their survival rate is not linked with age. Brood size of the defending adult was also unrelated to the intensity of nest defence. If flickers have adjusted their clutch size in relation to the number of young for which they can optimally provide care, then no effects of brood size on nest defence behaviour should be recorded, as was the case here

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest

Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate the stand-level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086-2100: SSP2-45, SSP5-85) and two CO2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1-11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo-tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable

SN 2006bt: A Perplexing, Troublesome, and Possibly Misleading Type Ia Supernova

SN 2006bt displays characteristics unlike those of any other known Type Ia supernova (SN Ia). We present optical light curves and spectra of SN 2006bt which demonstrate the peculiar nature of this object. SN 2006bt has broad, slowly declining light curves indicative of a hot, high-luminosity SN, but lacks a prominent second maximum in the i band as do low-luminosity SNe Ia. Its spectra are similar to those of low-luminosity SNe Ia, containing features that are only present in cool SN photospheres. Light-curve fitting methods suggest that SN 2006bt is reddened by a significant amount of dust; however, it occurred in the outskirts of its early-type host galaxy and has no strong Na D absorption in any of its spectra, suggesting a negligible amount of host-galaxy dust absorption. C II is possibly detected in our pre-maximum spectra, but at a much lower velocity than other elements. The progenitor was likely very old, being a member of the halo population of a galaxy that shows no signs of recent star formation. SNe Ia have been very successfully modeled as a one-parameter family, and this is fundamental to their use as cosmological distance indicators. SN 2006bt is a challenge to that picture, yet its relatively normal light curves allowed SN 2006bt to be included in cosmological analyses. We generate mock SN Ia datasets which indicate that contamination by similar objects will both increase the scatter of a SN Ia Hubble diagram and systematically bias measurements of cosmological parameters. However, spectra and rest-frame i-band light curves should provide a definitive way to identify and eliminate such objects.Comment: ApJ, accepted. 13 pages, 13 figure

The Low-Velocity, Rapidly Fading Type Ia Supernova 2002es

SN 2002es is a peculiar subluminous Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) with a combination of observed characteristics never before seen in a SN Ia. At maximum light, SN 2002es shares spectroscopic properties with the underluminous SN 1991bg subclass of SNe Ia, but with substantially lower expansion velocities (~6000 km/s) more typical of the SN 2002cx subclass. Photometrically, SN 2002es differs from both SN 1991bg-like and SN 2002cx-like supernovae. Although at maximum light it is subluminous (M_B=-17.78 mag), SN 2002es has a relatively broad light curve (Dm15(B)=1.28 +/- 0.04 mag), making it a significant outlier in the light-curve width vs. luminosity relationship. We estimate a 56Ni mass of 0.17 +/- 0.05 M_sun synthesized in the explosion, relatively low for a SN Ia. One month after maximum light, we find an unexpected plummet in the bolometric luminosity. The late-time decay of the light curves is inconsistent with our estimated 56Ni mass, indicating that either the light curve was not completely powered by 56Ni decay or the ejecta became optically thin to gamma-rays within a month after maximum light. The host galaxy is classified as an S0 galaxy with little to no star formation, indicating the progenitor of SN 2002es is likely from an old stellar population. We also present a less extensive dataset for SN 1999bh, an object which shares similar observed properties. Both objects were found as part of the Lick Observatory Supernova Search, allowing us to estimate that these objects should account for ~2.5% of SNe Ia within a fixed volume. We find that current theoretical models are unable to explain the observed of characteristics of SN 2002es.Comment: 19 pages, 15 figures, Submitted to Ap

Neoadjuvant Relatlimab and Nivolumab in Resectable Melanoma

Relatlimab and nivolumab combination immunotherapy improves progression-free survival over nivolumab monotherapy in patients with unresectable advanced melanoma1. We investigated this regimen in patients with resectable clinical stage III or oligometastatic stage IV melanoma (NCT02519322). Patients received two neoadjuvant doses (nivolumab 480 mg and relatlimab 160 mg intravenously every 4 weeks) followed by surgery, and then ten doses of adjuvant combination therapy. The primary end point was pathologic complete response (pCR) rate2. The combination resulted in 57% pCR rate and 70% overall pathologic response rate among 30 patients treated. The radiographic response rate using Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors 1.1 was 57%. No grade 3-4 immune-related adverse events were observed in the neoadjuvant setting. The 1- and 2-year recurrence-free survival rate was 100% and 92% for patients with any pathologic response, compared to 88% and 55% for patients who did not have a pathologic response (P = 0.005). Increased immune cell infiltration at baseline, and decrease in M2 macrophages during treatment, were associated with pathologic response. Our results indicate that neoadjuvant relatlimab and nivolumab induces a high pCR rate. Safety during neoadjuvant therapy is favourable compared to other combination immunotherapy regimens. These data, in combination with the results of the RELATIVITY-047 trial1, provide further confirmation of the efficacy and safety of this new immunotherapy regimen

The Central Amazon Biomass Sink Under Current and Future Atmospheric CO2: Predictions From Big-Leaf and Demographic Vegetation Models

There is large uncertainty whether Amazon forests will remain a carbon sink as atmospheric CO2 increases. Hence, we simulated an old-growth tropical forest using six versions of four terrestrial models differing in scale of vegetation structure and representation of biogeochemical (BGC) cycling, all driven with CO2 forcing from the preindustrial period to 2100. The models were benchmarked against tree inventory and eddy covariance data from a Brazilian site for present-day predictions. All models predicted positive vegetation growth that outpaced mortality, leading to continual increases in present-day biomass accumulation. Notably, the two vegetation demographic models (VDMs) (ED2 and ELM-FATES) always predicted positive stem diameter growth in all size classes. The field data, however, indicated that a quarter of canopy trees didn't grow over the 15-year period, and while high interannual variation existed, biomass change was near neutral. With a doubling of CO2, three of the four models predicted an appreciable biomass sink (0.77 to 1.24 Mg ha−1 year−1). ELMv1-ECA, the only model used here that includes phosphorus constraints, predicted the lowest biomass sink relative to initial biomass stocks (+21%), lower than the other BGC model, CLM5 (+48%). Models projections differed primarily through variations in nutrient constraints, then carbon allocation, initial biomass, and density-dependent mortality. The VDM's performance was similar or better than the BGC models run in carbon-only mode, suggesting that nutrient competition in VDMs will improve predictions. We demonstrate that VDMs are comparable to nondemographic (i.e., “big-leaf”) models but also include finer scale demography and competition that can be evaluated against field observations. ©2020. The Authors

The Most Slowly Declining Type Ia Supernova 2001ay

We present optical and near-infrared photometry, as well as ground-based optical spectra and Hubble Space Telescope ultraviolet spectra, of the Type Ia supernova (SN) 2001ay. At maximum light the Si II and Mg II lines indicated expansion velocities of 14,000 km/sec, while Si III and S II showed velocities of 9,000 km/sec There is also evidence for some unburned carbon at 12,000 km/sec. SN 2001ay exhibited a decline-rate parameter Delta m_15(B) = 0.68 \pm 0.05 mag; this and the B-band photometry at t > +25 d past maximum make it the most slowly declining Type Ia SN yet discovered. Three of four super-Chandrasekhar-mass candidates have decline rates almost as slow as this. After correction for Galactic and host-galaxy extinction, SN 2001ay had M_B = -19.19 and M_V = -19.17 mag at maximum light; thus, it was not overluminous in optical bands. In near-infrared bands it was overluminous only at the 2-sigma level at most. For a rise time of 18 d (explosion to bolometric maximum) the implied Ni-56 yield was (0.58 \pm 0.15)/alpha M_Sun, with alpha = L_max/E_Ni probably in the range 1.0 to 1.2. The Ni-56 yield is comparable to that of many Type Ia supernovae. The "normal" Ni-56 yield and the typical peak optical brightness suggest that the very broad optical light curve is explained by the trapping of the gamma rays in the inner regions.Comment: 57 pages, 22 figures. To be published in the Astronomical Journal (September 2011

Application of In Vivo Induced Antigen Technology (IVIAT) to Bacillus anthracis

In vivo induced antigen technology (IVIAT) is an immuno-screening technique that identifies bacterial antigens expressed during infection and not during standard in vitro culturing conditions. We applied IVIAT to Bacillus anthracis and identified PagA, seven members of a N-acetylmuramoyl-L-alanine amidase autolysin family, three P60 family lipoproteins, two transporters, spore cortex lytic protein SleB, a penicillin binding protein, a putative prophage holin, respiratory nitrate reductase NarG, and three proteins of unknown function. Using quantitative real-time PCR comparing RNA isolated from in vitro cultured B. anthracis to RNA isolated from BALB/c mice infected with virulent Ames strain B. anthracis, we confirmed induced expression in vivo for a subset of B. anthracis genes identified by IVIAT, including L-alanine amidases BA3767, BA4073, and amiA (pXO2-42); the bacteriophage holin gene BA4074; and pagA (pXO1-110). The exogenous addition of two purified putative autolysins identified by IVIAT, N-acetylmuramoyl-L-alanine amidases BA0485 and BA2446, to vegetative B. anthracis cell suspensions induced a species-specific change in bacterial morphology and reduction in viable bacterial cells. Many of the proteins identified in our screen are predicted to affect peptidoglycan re-modeling, and our results support significant cell wall structural remodeling activity during B. anthracis infection. Identification of L-alanine amidases with B. anthracis specificity may suggest new potential therapeutic targets

Regulation of Inflammatory Gene Expression in PBMCs by Immunostimulatory Botanicals

Many hundreds of botanicals are used in complementary and alternative medicine for therapeutic use as antimicrobials and immune stimulators. While there exists many centuries of anecdotal evidence and few clinical studies on the activity and efficacy of these botanicals, limited scientific evidence exists on the ability of these botanicals to modulate the immune and inflammatory responses. Using botanogenomics (or herbogenomics), this study provides novel insight into inflammatory genes which are induced in peripheral blood mononuclear cells following treatment with immunomodulatory botanical extracts. These results may suggest putative genes involved in the physiological responses thought to occur following administration of these botanical extracts. Using extracts from immunostimulatory herbs (Astragalus membranaceus, Sambucus cerulea, Andrographis paniculata) and an immunosuppressive herb (Urtica dioica), the data presented supports previous cytokine studies on these herbs as well as identifying additional genes which may be involved in immune cell activation and migration and various inflammatory responses, including wound healing, angiogenesis, and blood pressure modulation. Additionally, we report the presence of lipopolysaccharide in medicinally prepared extracts of these herbs which is theorized to be a natural and active component of the immunostimulatory herbal extracts. The data presented provides a more extensive picture on how these herbs may be mediating their biological effects on the immune and inflammatory responses