Stochastic models of forecasting prices of soybeans in Brazil

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

International multicentre observational study to assess the efficacy and safety of a 0·5 mg kg−1 per day starting dose of oral corticosteroids to treat bullous pemphigoid

BackgroundEuropean guidelines propose a 0 center dot 5 mg kg(-1) per day dose of oral prednisone as initial treatment for bullous pemphigoid (BP). We assessed the safety and efficacy of this regimen depending on BP extent and general condition of the patients.MethodsIn a prospective international study, we consecutively included all patients diagnosed with BP. Patients received a 0 center dot 5 mg kg(-1) per day dose of prednisone, which was then gradually tapered 15 days after disease control, with the aim of stopping prednisone or maintaining minimal treatment (0 center dot 1 mg kg(-1) per day) within 6 months after the start of treatment. The two coprimary endpoints were control of disease activity at day 21 and 1-year overall survival. Disease severity was assessed according to the Bullous Pemphigoid Disease Area Index (BPDAI) score.ResultsIn total, 198 patients were included between 2015 and 2017. The final analysis comprised 190 patients with a mean age of 80 center dot 9 (SD 9 center dot 1) years. Control of disease activity was achieved at day 21 in 119 patients [62 center dot 6%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 55 center dot 3-69.5]; 18 of 24 patients (75%, 95% CI 53 center dot 3-90 center dot 2), 75 of 110 patients (68 center dot 8%, 95% CI 59 center dot 2-77 center dot 3) and 26 of 56 patients (46.4%, 95% CI 33 center dot 0-60 center dot 3) had mild, moderate and severe BP, respectively (P = 0 center dot 0218). A total of 30 patients died during the study. The overall Kaplan-Meier 1-year survival was 82 center dot 6% (95% CI 76 center dot 3-87 center dot 4) corresponding to 90 center dot 9%, 83 center dot 0% and 80 center dot 0% rates in patients with mild, moderate and severe BP, respectively (P = 0 center dot 5). Thresholds of 49 points for BPDAI score and 70 points for Karnofsky score yielded maximal Youden index values with respect to disease control at day 21 and 1-year survival, respectively.ConclusionsA 0 center dot 5 mg kg(-1) per day dose of prednisone is a valuable therapeutic option in patients with mild or moderate BP whose general condition allows them to be autonomous.</p

European guidelines (S3) on diagnosis and management of mucous membrane pemphigoid, initiated by the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology – Part I

This guideline on mucous membrane pemphigoid (MMP) has been elaborated by the Task Force for Autoimmune Blistering Diseases of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology (EADV) with a contribution of physicians from all relevant disciplines and patient organizations. It is a S3 consensus-based guideline encompassing a systematic review of the literature until June 2019 in the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. This first part covers methodology, the clinical definition of MMP, epidemiology, MMP subtypes, immunopathological characteristics, disease assessment and outcome scores. MMP describes a group of autoimmune skin and mucous membrane blistering diseases, characterized by a chronic course and by predominant involvement of the mucous membranes, such as the oral, ocular, nasal, nasopharyngeal, anogenital, laryngeal and oesophageal mucosa. MMP patients may present with mono- or multisite involvement. Patients’ autoantibodies have been shown to be predominantly directed against BP180 (also called BPAG2, type XVII collagen), BP230, laminin 332 and type VII collagen, components of junctional adhesion complexes promoting epithelial stromal attachment in stratified epithelia. Various disease assessment scores are available, including the Mucous Membrane Pemphigoid Disease Area Index (MMPDAI), the Autoimmune Bullous Skin disorder Intensity Score (ABSIS), the ‘Cicatrising Conjunctivitis Assessment Tool’ and the Oral Disease Severity Score (ODSS). Patient-reported outcome measurements (PROMs), including DLQI, ABQOL and TABQOL, can be used for assessment of quality of life to evaluate the effectiveness of therapeutic interventions and monitor disease course

European Guidelines (S3) on diagnosis and management of mucous membrane pemphigoid, initiated by the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology – Part II

This guideline has been initiated by the task force Autoimmune Blistering Diseases of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology, including physicians from all relevant disciplines and patient organizations. It is a S3 consensus-based guideline that systematically reviewed the literature on mucous membrane pemphigoid (MMP) in the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases until June 2019, with no limitations on language. While the first part of this guideline addressed methodology, as well as epidemiology, terminology, aetiology, clinical presentation and outcome measures in MMP, the second part presents the diagnostics and management of MMP. MMP should be suspected in cases with predominant mucosal lesions. Direct immunofluorescence microscopy to detect tissue-bound IgG, IgA and/or complement C3, combined with serological testing for circulating autoantibodies are recommended. In most patients, serum autoantibodies are present only in low levels and in variable proportions, depending on the clinical sites involved. Circulating autoantibodies are determined by indirect IF assays using tissue substrates, or ELISA using different recombinant forms of the target antigens or immunoblotting using different substrates. The major target antigen in MMP is type XVII collagen (BP180), although in 10–25% of patients laminin 332 is recognized. In 25–30% of MMP patients with anti-laminin 332 reactivity, malignancies have been associated. As first-line treatment of mild/moderate MMP, dapsone, methotrexate or tetracyclines and/or topical corticosteroids are recommended. For severe MMP, dapsone and oral or intravenous cyclophosphamide and/or oral corticosteroids are recommended as first-line regimens. Additional recommendations are given, tailored to treatment of single-site MMP such as oral, ocular, laryngeal, oesophageal and genital MMP, as well as the diagnosis of ocular MMP. Treatment recommendations are limited by the complete lack of high-quality randomized controlled trials

European guidelines (S3) on diagnosis and management of mucous membrane pemphigoid, initiated by the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology – Part I

This guideline on mucous membrane pemphigoid (MMP) has been elaborated by the Task Force for Autoimmune Blistering Diseases of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology (EADV) with a contribution of physicians from all relevant disciplines and patient organizations. It is a S3 consensus-based guideline encompassing a systematic review of the literature until June 2019 in the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. This first part covers methodology, the clinical definition of MMP, epidemiology, MMP subtypes, immunopathological characteristics, disease assessment and outcome scores. MMP describes a group of autoimmune skin and mucous membrane blistering diseases, characterized by a chronic course and by predominant involvement of the mucous membranes, such as the oral, ocular, nasal, nasopharyngeal, anogenital, laryngeal and oesophageal mucosa. MMP patients may present with mono- or multisite involvement. Patients’ autoantibodies have been shown to be predominantly directed against BP180 (also called BPAG2, type XVII collagen), BP230, laminin 332 and type VII collagen, components of junctional adhesion complexes promoting epithelial stromal attachment in stratified epithelia. Various disease assessment scores are available, including the Mucous Membrane Pemphigoid Disease Area Index (MMPDAI), the Autoimmune Bullous Skin disorder Intensity Score (ABSIS), the ‘Cicatrising Conjunctivitis Assessment Tool’ and the Oral Disease Severity Score (ODSS). Patient-reported outcome measurements (PROMs), including DLQI, ABQOL and TABQOL, can be used for assessment of quality of life to evaluate the effectiveness of therapeutic interventions and monitor disease course

Doxycycline versus prednisolone as an initial treatment strategy for bullous pemphigoid: a pragmatic non-inferiority randomised controlled trial

Background: Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is a blistering skin disorder with increased mortality. We tested whether a strategy of starting treatment with doxycycline conveys acceptable short-term blister control whilst conferring long-term safety advantages over starting treatment with oral corticosteroids. Methods: Pragmatic multi-centre parallel-group randomised controlled trial of adults with BP (≥3 blisters ≥2 sites and linear basement membrane IgG/C3) plus economic evaluation. Participants were randomised to doxycycline (200 mg/day) or prednisolone (0·5 mg/kg/day). Localised adjuvant potent topical corticosteroids (<30 g/week) was permitted weeks 1-3. The non-inferiority primary effectiveness outcome was the proportion of participants with ≤3 blisters at 6 weeks. We assumed that doxycycline would be 25% less effective than corticosteroids with a 37% acceptable margin of noninferiority. The primary safety outcome was the proportion with severe, life-threatening or fatal treatment-related adverse events by 52 weeks. Analysis used a regression model adjusting for baseline disease severity, age and Karnofsky score, with missing data imputed. Results: 132 patients were randomised to doxycycline and 121 to prednisolone from 54 UK and 7 German dermatology centres. Mean age was 77·7 years and 68.4% had moderate to severe baseline disease. For those starting doxycycline, 83/112 (74·1%) had ≤3 blisters at 6 weeks compared with 92/101 (91·1%) for prednisolone, a difference of 18·6% favouring prednisolone (upper limit of 90% CI, 26·1%, within the predefined 37% margin). Related severe, life-threatening and fatal events at 52 weeks were 18·5% for those starting doxycycline and 36·6% for prednisolone (mITT analysis), an adjusted difference of 19·0% (95% CI, 7·9%, 30·1%, p=0·001). Conclusions: A strategy of starting BP patients on doxycycline is non-inferior to standard treatment with oral prednisolone for short-term blister control and significantly safer long-term

Expression of αvβ6integrin in oral leukoplakia

The distribution of αvβ6integrin was examined in oral leukoplakia, lichen planus and squamous cell carcinomas using immunohistochemistry. Controls included oral mucosal wounds, chronically inflamed and normal oral mucosa. Integrins β1, β3, β4, β5, fibronectin and tenascin were also studied. The integrin αvβ6was highly expressed throughout the whole lesion of 90% of the squamous cell carcinomas but was not present in any of the normal specimens. αvβ6integrin was also expressed in 41% of the leukoplakia specimens, and 85% of the lichen planus samples, but in none of the tissues with inflammatory hyperplasia or chronic inflammation. The expression of β1 integrins was localized in the basal layer, and that of the β4at the cell surface facing the basement membrane of all specimens. The integrins β3and β5were absent from all normal and leukoplakia specimens. Fibronectin and tenascin were present in the connective tissue underneath the epithelium of all the sections, and their expression was similar in both αvβ6-positive and αvβ6-negative tissues. A group of 28 leukoplakia patients were followed 1–4 years after first diagnosis. In this group, initially αvβ6integrin-positive leukoplakia specimens had high tendency for disease progression while αvβ6-negative specimens did not progress. These results suggest that the expression of αvβ6integrin could be associated in the malignant transformation of oral leukoplakias. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaig

The desmosome and pemphigus

Desmosomes are patch-like intercellular adhering junctions (“maculae adherentes”), which, in concert with the related adherens junctions, provide the mechanical strength to intercellular adhesion. Therefore, it is not surprising that desmosomes are abundant in tissues subjected to significant mechanical stress such as stratified epithelia and myocardium. Desmosomal adhesion is based on the Ca2+-dependent, homo- and heterophilic transinteraction of cadherin-type adhesion molecules. Desmosomal cadherins are anchored to the intermediate filament cytoskeleton by adaptor proteins of the armadillo and plakin families. Desmosomes are dynamic structures subjected to regulation and are therefore targets of signalling pathways, which control their molecular composition and adhesive properties. Moreover, evidence is emerging that desmosomal components themselves take part in outside-in signalling under physiologic and pathologic conditions. Disturbed desmosomal adhesion contributes to the pathogenesis of a number of diseases such as pemphigus, which is caused by autoantibodies against desmosomal cadherins. Beside pemphigus, desmosome-associated diseases are caused by other mechanisms such as genetic defects or bacterial toxins. Because most of these diseases affect the skin, desmosomes are interesting not only for cell biologists who are inspired by their complex structure and molecular composition, but also for clinical physicians who are confronted with patients suffering from severe blistering skin diseases such as pemphigus. To develop disease-specific therapeutic approaches, more insights into the molecular composition and regulation of desmosomes are required

Crise de abastecimento de água em São Paulo e falta de planejamento estratégico

Embora a crise no abastecimento de água na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) tenha se manifestado de maneira mais intensa no verão de 2013-2014, ela revela um problema crônico que vem afetando toda a Região nos últimos dez anos. Esse problema foi gerado pela falta de um planejamento estratégico que considere questões climatológicas que podem indicar, com meses de antecedência, problemas de recomposição dos níveis dos mananciais, permitindo que ações sejam empreendidas com razoável antecedência, reduzindo os impactos para a população. Este estudo mostra como é possível utilizar informações climáticas na gestão estratégica do sistema de abastecimento da RMSP.Though the crisis in the water supplying system in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (RMSP) was more intensively felt in the 2013-2014 summer, it reveals a chronic problem that has been affecting the whole RMSP for the past ten years. This problem is originated from the lack of a strategic planning that takes into consideration climate issues that could, months before, foresee problems to restore the levels of water resources, allowing measures to be implemented within a reasonable anticipation, therefore reducing the impacts on the population. This study shows how it is possible to use climate information in the strategic management of the water supply in the RMSP