Vulnerability to episodes of extreme weather: Butajira, Ethiopia, 1998–1999

BACKGROUND: During 1999-2000, great parts of Ethiopia experienced a period of famine which was recognised internationally. The aim of this paper is to characterise the epidemiology of mortality of the period, making use of individual, longitudinal population-based data from the Butajira demographic surveillance site and rainfall data from a local site. METHODS: Vital statistics and household data were routinely collected in a cluster sample of 10 sub-communities in the Butajira district in central Ethiopia. These were supplemented by rainfall and agricultural data from the national reporting systems. RESULTS: Rainfall was high in 1998 and well below average in 1999 and 2000. In 1998, heavy rains continued from April into October, in 1999 the small rains failed and the big rains lasted into the harvesting period. For the years 1998-1999, the mortality rate was 24.5 per 1,000 person-years, compared with 10.2 in the remainder of the period 1997-2001. Mortality peaks reflect epidemics of malaria and diarrhoeal disease. During these peaks, mortality was significantly higher among the poorer. CONCLUSIONS: The analyses reveal a serious humanitarian crisis with the Butajira population during 1998-1999, which met the CDC guideline crisis definition of more than one death per 10,000 per day. No substantial humanitarian relief efforts were triggered, though from the results it seems likely that the poorest in the farming communities are as vulnerable as the pastoralists in the North and East of Ethiopia. Food insecurity and reliance on subsistence agriculture continue to be major issues in this and similar rural communities. Epidemics of traditional infectious diseases can still be devastating, given opportunities in nutritionally challenged populations with little access to health care

Determinants of low family planning use and high unmet need in Butajira District, South Central Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The rapid population growth does not match with available resource in Ethiopia. Though household level family planning delivery has been put in place, the impact of such programs in densely populated rural areas was not studied. The study aims at measuring contraception and unmet need and identifying its determinants among married women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 5746 married women are interviewed from October to December 2009 in the Butajira Demographic Surveillance Area. Contraceptive prevalence rate and unmet need with their 95% confidence interval is measured among married women in the Butajira district. The association of background characteristics and family planning use is ascertained using crude and adjusted Odds ratio in logistic regression model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Current contraceptive prevalence rate among married women is 25.4% (95% CI: 24.2, 26.5). Unmet need of contraception is 52.4% of which 74.8% was attributed to spacing and the rest for limiting. Reasons for the high unmet need include commodities' insecurity, religion, and complaints related to providers, methods, diet and work load. Contraception is 2.3 (95% CI: 1.7, 3.2) times higher in urbanites compared to rural highlanders. Married women who attained primary and secondary plus level of education have about 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.6) and 2 (95% CI: 1.4, 2.9) times more risk to contraception; those with no child death are 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.5) times more likely to use contraceptives compared to counterparts. Besides, the odds of contraception is 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.6) and 1.5 (1.1, 2.0) times more likely among women whose partners completed primary and secondary plus level of education. Women discussing about contraception with partners were 2.2 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.7) times more likely to use family planning. Nevertheless, contraception was about 2.6 (95% CI: 2.1, 3.2) more likely among married women whose partners supported the use of family planning.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The local government should focus on increasing educational level. It must also ensure family planning methods security, increase competence of providers, and create awareness on various methods and their side effects to empower women to make an appropriate choice. Emphasis should be given to rural communities.</p

First experiences with a novel farmer citizen science approach: crowdsourcing participatory variety selection through on-farm triadic comparisons of technologies (TRICOT)

Rapid climatic and socio-economic changes challenge current agricultural R&D capacity. The necessary quantum leap in knowledge generation should build on the innovation capacity of farmers themselves. A novel citizen science methodology, triadic comparisons of technologies or tricot, was implemented in pilot studies in India, East Africa, and Central America. The methodology involves distributing a pool of agricultural technologies in different combinations of three to individual farmers who observe these technologies under farm conditions and compare their performance. Since the combinations of three technologies overlap, statistical methods can piece together the overall performance ranking of the complete pool of technologies. The tricot approach affords wide scaling, as the distribution of trial packages and instruction sessions is relatively easy to execute, farmers do not need to be organized in collaborative groups, and feedback is easy to collect, even by phone. The tricot approach provides interpretable, meaningful results and was widely accepted by farmers. The methodology underwent improvement in data input formats. A number of methodological issues remain: integrating environmental analysis, capturing gender-specific differences, stimulating farmers' motivation, and supporting implementation with an integrated digital platform. Future studies should apply the tricot approach to a wider range of technologies, quantify its potential contribution to climate adaptation, and embed the approach in appropriate institutions and business models, empowering participants and democratizing science

Peptides Derived from Mycobacterium leprae ML1601c Discriminate between Leprosy Patients and Healthy Endemic Controls

The stable incidence of new leprosy cases suggests that transmission of infection continues despite worldwide implementation of MDT. Thus, specific tools are needed to diagnose early stage Mycobacterium leprae infection, the likely sources of transmission. M. leprae antigens that induce T-cell responses in M. leprae exposed and/or infected individuals thus are major targets for new diagnostic tools. Previously, we showed that ML1601c was immunogenic in patients and healthy household contacts (HHC). However, some endemic controls (EC) also recognized this protein. To improve the diagnostic potential, IFN-γ responses to ML1601c peptides were assessed using PBMC from Brazilian leprosy patients and EC. Five ML1601c peptides only induced IFN-γ in patients and HHC. Moreover, 24-hour whole-blood assay (WBA), two ML1601c peptides could assess the level of M. leprae exposure in Ethiopian EC. Beside IFN-γ, also IP-10, IL-6, IL-1β, TNF-α, and MCP-1 were increased in EC from areas with high leprosy prevalence in response to these ML1601c peptides. Thus, ML1601c peptides may be useful for differentiating M. leprae exposed or infected individuals and can also be used to indicate the magnitude of M. leprae transmission even in the context of various HLA alleles as present in these different genetic backgrounds

Revising the WHO verbal autopsy instrument to facilitate routine cause-of-death monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a systematic approach for determining causes of death (CoD) in populations without routine medical certification. It has mainly been used in research contexts and involved relatively lengthy interviews. Our objective here is to describe the process used to shorten, simplify, and standardise the VA process to make it feasible for application on a larger scale such as in routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. METHODS: A literature review of existing VA instruments was undertaken. The World Health Organization (WHO) then facilitated an international consultation process to review experiences with existing VA instruments, including those from WHO, the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health in Developing Countries (INDEPTH) Network, InterVA, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). In an expert meeting, consideration was given to formulating a workable VA CoD list [with mapping to the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) CoD] and to the viability and utility of existing VA interview questions, with a view to undertaking systematic simplification. FINDINGS: A revised VA CoD list was compiled enabling mapping of all ICD-10 CoD onto 62 VA cause categories, chosen on the grounds of public health significance as well as potential for ascertainment from VA. A set of 221 indicators for inclusion in the revised VA instrument was developed on the basis of accumulated experience, with appropriate skip patterns for various population sub-groups. The duration of a VA interview was reduced by about 40% with this new approach. CONCLUSIONS: The revised VA instrument resulting from this consultation process is presented here as a means of making it available for widespread use and evaluation. It is envisaged that this will be used in conjunction with automated models for assigning CoD from VA data, rather than involving physicians

Factors associated with infant mortality in Nepal: a comparative analysis of Nepal demographic and health surveys (NDHS) 2006 and 2011

Background: Infant mortality is one of the priority public health issues in developing countries like Nepal. The infant mortality rate (IMR) was 48 and 46 per 1000 live births for the year 2006 and 2011, respectively, a slight reduction during the 5 years’ period. A comprehensive analysis that has identified and compared key factors associated with infant mortality is limited in Nepal, and, therefore, this study aims to fill the gap. Methods: Datasets from Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) 2006 and 2011 were used to identify and compare the major factors associated with infant mortality. Both surveys used multistage stratified cluster sampling techniques. A total of 8707 and 10,826 households were interviewed in 2006 and 2011, with more than 99% response rate in both studies. The survival information of singleton live-born infants born 5 years preceding the two surveys were extracted from the ‘childbirth’ dataset. Multiple logistic regression analysis using a hierarchical modelling approach with the backward elimination method was conducted. Complex Samples Analysis was used to adjust for unequal selection probability due to the multistage stratified cluster-sampling procedure used in both NDHS.Results: Based on NDHS 2006, ecological region, succeeding birth interval, breastfeeding status and type of delivery assistance were found to be significant predictors of infant mortality. Infants born in hilly region (AOR = 0.43, p = 0.013) and with professional assistance (AOR = 0.27, p = 0.039) had a lower risk of mortality. On the other hand, infants with succeeding birth interval less than 24 months (AOR = 6.66, p = 0.001) and those who were never breastfed (AOR = 1.62, p = 0.044) had a higher risk of mortality. Based on NDHS 2011, birth interval (preceding and succeeding) and baby’s size at birth were identified to be significantly associated with infant mortality. Infants born with preceding birth interval (AOR = 1.94, p = 0.022) or succeeding birth interval (AOR = 3.22, p = 0.002) shorter than 24 months had higher odds of mortality while those born with a very large or larger than average size had significantly lowered odds (AOR = 0.17, p = 0.008) of mortality. Conclusion: IMR and associated risk factors differ between NDHS 2006 and 2011 except ‘succeeding birth interval’ which attained significant status in the both study periods. This study identified the ecological region, birth interval, delivery assistant type, baby’s birth size and breastfeeding status as significant predictors of infant mortality

Exploring Pathways for Building Trust in Vaccination and Strengthening Health System Resilience

Background: Trust is critical to generate and maintain demand for vaccines in low and middle income countries. However, there is little documentation on how health system insufficiencies affect trust in vaccination and the process of re-building trust once it has been compromised. We reflect on how disruptions to immunizations systems can affect trust in vaccination and can compromise vaccine utilization. We then explore key pathways for overcoming system vulnerabilities in order to restore trust, to strengthen the resilience of health systems and communities, and to promote vaccine utilization. Methods: Utilizing secondary data and a review of the literature, we developed a causal loop diagram (CLD) to map the determinants of building trust in immunizations. Using the CLD, we devised three scenarios to illustrate common vulnerabilities that compromise trust and pathways to strengthen trust and utilization of vaccines, specifically looking at weak health systems, harmful communication channels, and role of social capital. Spill-over effects, interactions and other dynamics in the CLD were then examined to assess leverage points to counter these vulnerabilities. Results: Trust in vaccination arises from the interactions among experiences with the health system, the various forms of communication and social capital – both external and internal to communities. When experiencing system-wide shocks such as the case in Ebola-affected countries, distrust is reinforced by feedback between the health and immunization systems where distrust often lingers even after systems are restored and spills over beyond vaccination in the broader health system. Vaccine myths or anti-vaccine movements reinforce distrust. Social capital – the collective value of social networks of community members – plays a central role in increasing levels of trust. Conclusions: Trust is important, yet underexplored, in the context of vaccine utilization. Using a CLD to illustrate various scenarios helped to explore how common health and vaccine vulnerabilities can reinforce and spill over distrust through vicious, reinforcing feedback. Restoring trust requires a careful balance between eliminating vulnerabilities and strengthening social capital and interactions among communication channels

Robust metrics for assessing the performance of different verbal autopsy cause assignment methods in validation studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Verbal autopsy (VA) is an important method for obtaining cause of death information in settings without vital registration and medical certification of causes of death. An array of methods, including physician review and computer-automated methods, have been proposed and used. Choosing the best method for VA requires the appropriate metrics for assessing performance. Currently used metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, and cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) errors do not provide a robust basis for comparison.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We use simple simulations of populations with three causes of death to demonstrate that most metrics used in VA validation studies are extremely sensitive to the CSMF composition of the test dataset. Simulations also demonstrate that an inferior method can appear to have better performance than an alternative due strictly to the CSMF composition of the test set.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>VA methods need to be evaluated across a set of test datasets with widely varying CSMF compositions. We propose two metrics for assessing the performance of a proposed VA method. For assessing how well a method does at individual cause of death assignment, we recommend the average chance-corrected concordance across causes. This metric is insensitive to the CSMF composition of the test sets and corrects for the degree to which a method will get the cause correct due strictly to chance. For the evaluation of CSMF estimation, we propose CSMF accuracy. CSMF accuracy is defined as one minus the sum of all absolute CSMF errors across causes divided by the maximum total error. It is scaled from zero to one and can generalize a method's CSMF estimation capability regardless of the number of causes. Performance of a VA method for CSMF estimation by cause can be assessed by examining the relationship across test datasets between the estimated CSMF and the true CSMF.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>With an increasing range of VA methods available, it will be critical to objectively assess their performance in assigning cause of death. Chance-corrected concordance and CSMF accuracy assessed across a large number of test datasets with widely varying CSMF composition provide a robust strategy for this assessment.</p

Traditional values of virginity and sexual behaviour in rural Ethiopian youth: results from a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Delaying sexual initiation has been promoted as one of the methods of decreasing risks of HIV among young people. In traditional countries, such as Ethiopia, retaining virginity until marriage is the norm. However, no one has examined the impact of this traditional norm on sexual behaviour and risk of HIV in marriage. This study examined the effect of virginity norm on having sex before marriage and sexual behaviour after marriage among rural Ethiopian youth.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We did a cross-sectional survey in 9 rural and 1 urban area using a probabilistic sample of 3,743 youth, 15–24 years of age. Univariate analysis was used to assess associations between virginity norm and gender stratified by area, and between sexual behaviour and marital status. We applied Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis to estimate age at sexual debut and assessed the predictors of premarital sex among the never-married using SPSS.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that maintaining virginity is still a way of securing marriage for girls, especially in rural areas; the odds of belief and intention to marry a virgin among boys was 3–4 times higher among rural young males. As age increased, the likelihood of remaining a virgin decreased. There was no significant difference between married and unmarried young people in terms of number of partners and visiting commercial sex workers. Married men were twice more likely to have multiple sexual partners than their female counterparts. A Cox regression show that those who did not believe in traditional values of preserving virginity (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 2.91 [1.92–4.40]), alcohol drinkers (AHR = 2.91 [1.97–4.29]), Khat chewers (AHR = 2.36 [1.45–3.85]), literates (AHR = 18.01 [4.34–74.42]), and the older age group (AHR = 1.85 [1.19–2.91]) were more likely to have premarital sex than their counterparts.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although virginity norms help delay age at sexual debut among rural Ethiopian youth, and thus reduces vulnerability to sexually transmitted infections and HIV infection, vulnerability among females may increase after marriage due to unprotected multiple risky sexual behaviours by spouses. The use of preventive services, such as VCT before marriage and condom use in marriage should be part of the HIV/AIDS prevention and control strategies.</p

Performance of InterVA for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards

Background: InterVA is a widely disseminated tool for cause of death attribution using information from verbal autopsies. Several studies have attempted to validate the concordance and accuracy of the tool, but the main limitation of these studies is that they compare cause of death as ascertained through hospital record review or hospital discharge diagnosis with the results of InterVA. This study provides a unique opportunity to assess the performance of InterVA compared to physician-certified verbal autopsies (PCVA) and alternative automated methods for analysis.Methods: Using clinical diagnostic gold standards to select 12,542 verbal autopsy cases, we assessed the performance of InterVA on both an individual and population level and compared the results to PCVA, conducting analyses separately for adults, children, and neonates. Following the recommendation of Murray et al., we randomly varied the cause composition over 500 test datasets to understand the performance of the tool in different settings. We also contrasted InterVA with an alternative Bayesian method, Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the tool.Results: Across all age groups, InterVA performs worse than PCVA, both on an individual and population level. On an individual level, InterVA achieved a chance-corrected concordance of 24.2% for adults, 24.9% for children, and 6.3% for neonates (excluding free text, considering one cause selection). On a population level, InterVA achieved a cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy of 0.546 for adults, 0.504 for children, and 0.404 for neonates. The comparison to SSP revealed four specific characteristics that lead to superior performance of SSP. Increases in chance-corrected concordance are attained by developing cause-by-cause models (2%), using all items as opposed to only the ones that mapped to InterVA items (7%), assigning probabilities to clusters of symptoms (6%), and using empirical as opposed to expert probabilities (up to 8%).Conclusions: Given the widespread use of verbal autopsy for understanding the burden of disease and for setting health intervention priorities in areas that lack reliable vital registrations systems, accurate analysis of verbal autopsies is essential. While InterVA is an affordable and available mechanism for assigning causes of death using verbal autopsies, users should be aware of its suboptimal performance relative to other methods