How subgroup analyses can miss the trees for the forest plots: A simulation study

Objectives: Subgroup analyses of clinical trial data can be an important tool for understanding when treatment effects differ across populations. That said, even effect estimates from prespecified subgroups in well-conducted trials may not apply to corresponding subgroups in the source population. While this divergence may simply reflect statistical imprecision, there has been less discussion of systematic or structural sources of misleading subgroup estimates. Study Design and Setting: We use directed acyclic graphs to show how selection bias caused by associations between effect measure modifiers and trial selection, whether explicit (e.g., eligibility criteria) or implicit (e.g., self-selection based on race), can result in subgroup estimates that do not correspond to subgroup effects in the source population. To demonstrate this point, we provide a hypothetical example illustrating the sorts of erroneous conclusions that can result, as well as their potential consequences. We also provide a tool for readers to explore additional cases. Conclusion: Treating subgroups within a trial essentially as random samples of the corresponding subgroups in the wider population can be misleading, even when analyses are conducted rigorously and all findings are internally valid. Researchers should carefully examine associations between (and consider adjusting for) variables when attempting to identify heterogeneous treatment effects

Functional relationship of particulate matter (PM) emissions, animal species, and moisture content during manure application

Livestock manure is recycled to agricultural land as organic fertilizer. Due to the extensive usage of antibiotics in conventional animal farming, antibiotic-resistant bacteria are highly prevalent in feces and manure. The spread of wind-driven particulate matter (PM) with potentially associated harmful bacteria through manure application may pose a threat to environmental and human health. We studied whether PM was aerosolized during the application of solid and dried livestock manure and the functional relationship between PM release, manure dry matter content (DM), treatment and animal species. In parallel, manure and resulting PM were investigated for the survival of pathogenic and antibiotic-resistant bacterial species. The results showed that from manure with a higher DM smaller particles were generated and more PM was emitted. A positive correlation between manure DM and PM aerosolization rate was observed. There was a species-dependent critical dryness level (poultry: 60% DM, pig: 80% DM) where manure began to release PM into the environment. The maximum PM emission potentials were 1 and 3 kg t(-1) of applied poultry and pig manure, respectively. Dried manure and resulting PM contained strongly reduced amounts of investigated pathogenic and antibiotic-resistant microorganisms compared to fresh samples. An optimal manure DM regarding low PM emissions and reduced pathogen viability was defined from our results, which was 55-70% DM for poultry manure and 75-85% DM for pig manure. The novel findings of this study increase our detailed understanding and basic knowledge on manure PM emissions and enable optimization of manure management, aiming a manure DM that reduces PM emissions and pathogenic release into the environment

Healthcare system engagement and algorithm-identified cancer incidence following initiation of a new medication

Purpose: Implausibly high algorithm-identified cancer incidence within a new user study after medication initiation may result from increased healthcare utilization (HU) around initiation (“catch-up care”) that increases diagnostic opportunity. Understanding the relationships between HU prior to and around initiation and subsequent cancer rates and timing is important to avoiding protopathic bias. Methods: We identified a cohort of 417 458 Medicare beneficiaries (2007–2014) aged ≥66 initiating an antihypertensive (AHT) after ≥180 days of non-use. Initiators were stratified into groups of 0, 1, 2–3, and ≥4 outpatient visits (OV) 60–360 days before initiation. We calculated algorithm-identified colorectal cancer (aiCRC) rates stratified by OVs and time since AHT initiation: (0–90, 91–180, 181–365, 366–730, and 731+ days). We summarized HU -360/+60 days around AHT initiation by aiCRC timing: (0–29, 30–89, 90–179, and ≥180 days). Results: AiCRC incidence (311 per 100 000 overall) peaked in the first 0–90 days, was inversely associated with HU before initiation, and stabilized ≥180 days after AHT initiation. Catch-up care was greatest among persons with aiCRCs identified <30 days in follow-up. Catch-up care magnitude decreased as time to the aiCRC date increased, with aiCRCs identified ≥180 days after AHT initiation exhibiting similar HU compared with the full cohort. Conclusion: Lower HU before—and increased HU around AHT initiation—seem to drive excess short-term aiCRC incidence. Person-time and case accrual should only begin when incidence stabilizes. When comparison groups within a study differ by HU, outcome-detection bias may exist. Similar observations may exist in other settings when typical HU is delayed (e.g., cancer screening during SARS-CoV-2)

Demystifying an unidentified EGRET source by VHE gamma-ray observations

In a novel approach in observational high-energy gamma-ray astronomy, observations carried out by imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes provide necessary templates to pinpoint the nature of intriguing, yet unidentified EGRET gamma-ray sources. Using GeV-photons detected by CGRO EGRET and taking advantage of high spatial resolution images from H.E.S.S. observations, we were able to shed new light on the EGRET observed gamma-ray emission in the Kookaburra complex, whose previous coverage in the literature is somewhat contradictory. 3EGJ1420-6038 very likely accounts for two GeV gamma-ray sources (E>1 GeV), both in positional coincidence with the recently reported pulsar wind nebulae (PWN) by HESS in the Kookaburra/Rabbit complex. PWN associations at VHE energies, supported by accumulating evidence from observations in the radio and X-ray band, are indicative for the PSR/plerionic origin of spatially coincident, but still unidentified Galactic gamma-ray sources from EGRET. This not only supports the already suggested connection between variable, but unidentified low-latitude gamma-ray sources with pulsar wind nebulae (3EGJ1420-6038 has been suggested as PWN candidate previoulsy), it also documents the ability of resolving apparently confused EGRET sources by connecting the GeV emission as measured from a large-aperture space-based gamma-ray instrument with narrow field-of-view but superior spatial resolution observations by ground-based atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes, a very promising identification technique for achieving convincing individual source identifications in the era of GLAST-LAT.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics and Space Science, Proc. of "The Multi-Messenger Approach to High-Energy Gamma-ray Sources (Third Workshop on the Nature of Unidentified High-Energy Sources)", Barcelona, July 4-7, 2006, one typo correcte

To wet or not to wet: that is the question

Wetting transitions have been predicted and observed to occur for various combinations of fluids and surfaces. This paper describes the origin of such transitions, for liquid films on solid surfaces, in terms of the gas-surface interaction potentials V(r), which depend on the specific adsorption system. The transitions of light inert gases and H2 molecules on alkali metal surfaces have been explored extensively and are relatively well understood in terms of the least attractive adsorption interactions in nature. Much less thoroughly investigated are wetting transitions of Hg, water, heavy inert gases and other molecular films. The basic idea is that nonwetting occurs, for energetic reasons, if the adsorption potential's well-depth D is smaller than, or comparable to, the well-depth of the adsorbate-adsorbate mutual interaction. At the wetting temperature, Tw, the transition to wetting occurs, for entropic reasons, when the liquid's surface tension is sufficiently small that the free energy cost in forming a thick film is sufficiently compensated by the fluid- surface interaction energy. Guidelines useful for exploring wetting transitions of other systems are analyzed, in terms of generic criteria involving the "simple model", which yields results in terms of gas-surface interaction parameters and thermodynamic properties of the bulk adsorbate.Comment: Article accepted for publication in J. Low Temp. Phy

Experimental analysis of direct thermal methane cracking

The analysis of the viability of Hydrogen production without CO2 emissions is one of the most challenging activities that have been initiated for a sustainable energy supply. As one of the tracks to fulfil such objective, direct methane cracking has been analysed experimentally to assess the scientific viability and reaction characterization in a broad temperature range, from 875 to 1700 ?C. The effect of temperature, sweeping/carrier gas fraction proposed in some concepts, methane flow rate, residence time, and tube material and porosity has been analysed. The aggregation of carbon black particles to the reaction tube is the main technological show-stopper that has been identified

Discovery of the Binary Pulsar PSR B1259-63 in Very-High-Energy Gamma Rays around Periastron with H.E.S.S

We report the discovery of very-high-energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission of the binary system PSR B1259-63/SS 2883 of a radio pulsar orbiting a massive, luminous Be star in a highly eccentric orbit. The observations around the 2004 periastron passage of the pulsar were performed with the four 13 m Cherenkov telescopes of the H.E.S.S. experiment, recently installed in Namibia and in full operation since December 2003. Between February and June 2004, a gamma-ray signal from the binary system was detected with a total significance above 13 sigma. The flux was found to vary significantly on timescales of days which makes PSR B1259-63 the first variable galactic source of VHE gamma-rays observed so far. Strong emission signals were observed in pre- and post-periastron phases with a flux minimum around periastron, followed by a gradual flux decrease in the months after. The measured time-averaged energy spectrum above a mean threshold energy of 380 GeV can be fitted by a simple power law F_0(E/1 TeV)^-Gamma with a photon index Gamma = 2.7+-0.2_stat+-0.2_sys and flux normalisation F_0 = (1.3+-0.1_stat+-0.3_sys) 10^-12 TeV^-1 cm^-2 s^-1. This detection of VHE gamma-rays provides unambiguous evidence for particle acceleration to multi-TeV energies in the binary system. In combination with coeval observations of the X-ray synchrotron emission by the RXTE and INTEGRAL instruments, and assuming the VHE gamma-ray emission to be produced by the inverse Compton mechanism, the magnetic field strength can be directly estimated to be of the order of 1 G.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysics on 2 June 2005, replace: document unchanged, replaced author field in astro-ph entry - authors are all members of the H.E.S.S. collaboration and three additional authors (99+3, see document

The bowfin genome illuminates the developmental evolution of ray-finned fishes.

The bowfin (Amia calva) is a ray-finned fish that possesses a unique suite of ancestral and derived phenotypes, which are key to understanding vertebrate evolution. The phylogenetic position of bowfin as a representative of neopterygian fishes, its archetypical body plan and its unduplicated and slowly evolving genome make bowfin a central species for the genomic exploration of ray-finned fishes. Here we present a chromosome-level genome assembly for bowfin that enables gene-order analyses, settling long-debated neopterygian phylogenetic relationships. We examine chromatin accessibility and gene expression through bowfin development to investigate the evolution of immune, scale, respiratory and fin skeletal systems and identify hundreds of gene-regulatory loci conserved across vertebrates. These resources connect developmental evolution among bony fishes, further highlighting the bowfin's importance for illuminating vertebrate biology and diversity in the genomic era

Pulsar-wind nebulae and magnetar outflows: observations at radio, X-ray, and gamma-ray wavelengths

We review observations of several classes of neutron-star-powered outflows: pulsar-wind nebulae (PWNe) inside shell supernova remnants (SNRs), PWNe interacting directly with interstellar medium (ISM), and magnetar-powered outflows. We describe radio, X-ray, and gamma-ray observations of PWNe, focusing first on integrated spectral-energy distributions (SEDs) and global spectral properties. High-resolution X-ray imaging of PWNe shows a bewildering array of morphologies, with jets, trails, and other structures. Several of the 23 so far identified magnetars show evidence for continuous or sporadic emission of material, sometimes associated with giant flares, and a few possible "magnetar-wind nebulae" have been recently identified.Comment: 61 pages, 44 figures (reduced in quality for size reasons). Published in Space Science Reviews, "Jets and Winds in Pulsar Wind Nebulae, Gamma-ray Bursts and Blazars: Physics of Extreme Energy Release

Intercalibration of the barrel electromagnetic calorimeter of the CMS experiment at start-up

Calibration of the relative response of the individual channels of the barrel electromagnetic calorimeter of the CMS detector was accomplished, before installation, with cosmic ray muons and test beams. One fourth of the calorimeter was exposed to a beam of high energy electrons and the relative calibration of the channels, the intercalibration, was found to be reproducible to a precision of about 0.3%. Additionally, data were collected with cosmic rays for the entire ECAL barrel during the commissioning phase. By comparing the intercalibration constants obtained with the electron beam data with those from the cosmic ray data, it is demonstrated that the latter provide an intercalibration precision of 1.5% over most of the barrel ECAL. The best intercalibration precision is expected to come from the analysis of events collected in situ during the LHC operation. Using data collected with both electrons and pion beams, several aspects of the intercalibration procedures based on electrons or neutral pions were investigated