Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Gliomas of the pineal region

Abstract Although several series of pineal region tumors are available, the issue of pineal gliomas has been scarcely faced in the literature. Gliomas are usually included in largest series of pineal neoplasms. Therefore, whether pineal gliomas share the biological behavior of either hemispheric gliomas or other midline lesions is not yet defined. The aim of this retrospective study is to analyze long-term morbidity and mortality of these lesions. In English published literature gliomas account for about 14-22 % of all pineal region tumors. Most of these tumors are pilocytic astrocytomas, while glioblastoma multiforme is rare. We retrospectively analyzed all pineal region tumors operated on in our department in the last 28 years, and identified eight pineal astrocytomas, accounting for 14.03 % of all pineal tumors. The series includes four pilocytic astrocytomas, two grade II diffuse astrocytomas, and two anaplastic astrocytomas. A comprehensive review of the available literature data shows that the mean survival time of WHO grade II gliomas is shorter when tumor grows in the pineal region than for hemispheric locations, although the limited amount of available data prevents a rigorous statistical analysis. This difference might be due to the peculiar infiltrating behavior of pineal tumors, which often can't be satisfactorily resected from vital structures

An international genome-wide meta-analysis of primary biliary cholangitis: Novel risk loci and candidate drugs.

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease in which autoimmune destruction of the small intrahepatic bile ducts eventually leads to cirrhosis. Many patients have inadequate response to licensed medications, motivating the search for novel therapies. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and meta-analyses (GWMA) of PBC have identified numerous risk loci for this condition, providing insight into its aetiology. We undertook the largest GWMA of PBC to date, aiming to identify additional risk loci and prioritise candidate genes for in silico drug efficacy screening. METHODS We combined new and existing genotype data for 10,516 cases and 20,772 controls from 5 European and 2 East Asian cohorts. RESULTS We identified 56 genome-wide significant loci (20 novel) including 46 in European, 13 in Asian, and 41 in combined cohorts; and a 57 genome-wide significant locus (also novel) in conditional analysis of the European cohorts. Candidate genes at newly identified loci include FCRL3, INAVA, PRDM1, IRF7, CCR6, CD226, and IL12RB1, which each play key roles in immunity. Pathway analysis reiterated the likely importance of pattern recognition receptor and TNF signalling, JAK-STAT signalling, and differentiation of T helper (T)1 and T17 cells in the pathogenesis of this disease. Drug efficacy screening identified several medications predicted to be therapeutic in PBC, some of which are well-established in the treatment of other autoimmune disorders. CONCLUSIONS This study has identified additional risk loci for PBC, provided a hierarchy of agents that could be trialled in this condition, and emphasised the value of genetic and genomic approaches to drug discovery in complex disorders. LAY SUMMARY Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease that eventually leads to cirrhosis. In this study, we analysed genetic information from 10,516 people with PBC and 20,772 healthy individuals recruited in Canada, China, Italy, Japan, the UK, or the USA. We identified several genetic regions associated with PBC. Each of these regions contains several genes. For each region, we used diverse sources of evidence to help us choose the gene most likely to be involved in causing PBC. We used these 'candidate genes' to help us identify medications that are currently used for treatment of other conditions, which might also be useful for treatment of PBC

Appendicitis risk prediction models in children presenting with right iliac fossa pain (RIFT study): a prospective, multicentre validation study.

Background Acute appendicitis is the most common surgical emergency in children. Differentiation of acute appendicitis from conditions that do not require operative management can be challenging in children. This study aimed to identify the optimum risk prediction model to stratify acute appendicitis risk in children. Methods We did a rapid review to identify acute appendicitis risk prediction models. A prospective, multicentre cohort study was then done to evaluate performance of these models. Children (aged 5\u201315 years) presenting with acute right iliac fossa pain in the UK and Ireland were included. For each model, score cutoff thresholds were systematically varied to identify the best achievable specificity while maintaining a failure rate (ie, proportion of patients identified as low risk who had acute appendicitis) less than 5%. The normal appendicectomy rate was the proportion of resected appendixes found to be normal on histopathological examination. Findings 15 risk prediction models were identified that could be assessed. The cohort study enrolled 1827 children from 139 centres, of whom 630 (34\ub75%) underwent appendicectomy. The normal appendicectomy rate was 15\ub79% (100 of 630 patients). The Shera score was the best performing model, with an area under the curve of 0\ub784 (95% CI 0\ub782\u20130\ub786). Applying score cutoffs of 3 points or lower for children aged 5\u201310 years and girls aged 11\u201315 years, and 2 points or lower for boys aged 11\u201315 years, the failure rate was 3\ub73% (95% CI 2\ub70\u20135\ub72; 18 of 539 patients), specificity was 44\ub73% (95% CI 41\ub74\u201347\ub72; 521 of 1176), and positive predictive value was 41\ub74% (38\ub75\u201344\ub74; 463 of 1118). Positive predictive value for the Shera score with a cutoff of 6 points or lower (72\ub76%, 67\ub74\u201377\ub74) was similar to that of ultrasound scan (75\ub70%, 65\ub73\u201383\ub71). Interpretation The Shera score has the potential to identify a large group of children at low risk of acute appendicitis who could be considered for early discharge. Risk scoring does not identify children who should proceed directly to surgery. Medium-risk and high-risk children should undergo routine preoperative ultrasound imaging by operators trained to assess for acute appendicitis, and MRI or low-dose CT if uncertainty remains. Funding None