Detecting Economic Regimes in France : a Qualitative Markov-Switching Indicator Using Mixed Frequency Data

This paper proposes an indicator for detecting business cycle turning points involving mixed frequency business survey unbalanced data. It is based on a hidden Markov-switching model and allows for the detection of regime changes in a given economy where information is displayed monthly and/or quarterly. Starting from Gregoir and Lenglart (2000) we propose an adaptable framework which can be applied to many situations involving monthly, bimonthly and quarterly data. The proposed methodology is applied to the French economy. Using balances from business survey, this indicator measures the probability of being in an accelerating or a decelerating phase referring to the output growth rate cycle. The index is confronted over the past with a reference dating based on the growth cycle of the French GDP estimated through a Christiano-Fitzgerald filter. By extracting information from business survey, our index exhibits quite clearly and timely regime changes in France. Moreover, the signal delivered by the indicator is mainly unrevised and available many quarters before the ex-post dating. Considering this adequacy with the reference dating over the past, the turning point index therefore provides an accurate signal on the current outlook.Business Cycle; Business Survey; Turning points; Markov Switching Indicator; Multifrequency Data

High spatial resolution inorganic scintillator detector for high energy X-ray beam at small field irradiation

International audiencePurpose: Small fielddosimetry for radiotherapy is one of the major challenges due to the size of most dosimeters,e.g. sufficient spatial resolution, accurate dose distribution and energy dependency of the detector. In this context, the purpose of this research is to develop a small size scintillating detector targeting small field dosimetry and compare its performance with other commercial detectors. Method: An inorganic scintillator detector (ISD) of about 200 μm outer diameter was developed and tested through different small fields dosimetric characterization under high energy photons (6 MV and 15 MV) delivered by an Elekta Linear Accelerator (LINAC). PDD and beam profile measurements were compared using dosimeters from PTW namely, microdiamond and PinPoint 3D detector. A background fiber method has been considered to quantifyand eliminate the minimal Cerenkov effect from the total optical signal magnitude. Measurements were performed inside a water phantom under IAEA Technical reports series recommendations (IAEA TRS 381 and TRS 483). Results:Small fields ranging from 3 x 3 cm2, down to 0.5 x 0.5 cm2 were sequentiallymeasured using the ISD and commercial dosimeters, and a good agreement was obtained among all measurements. The result also shows that, scintillating detector has good repeatabilityand reproducibility of the output signal with maximum deviation of 0.26% and 0.5% respectively. The Full Width Half Maximum (FWHM) was measured 0.55 cm for the smallest available square size field of 0.5 x 0.5 cm2, where the discrepancy of 0.05 cm is dueto the scattering effects inside the water and convolution effect between field and detector geometries. Percentage Depth Dose (PDD) factor dependence variation with water depth exhibits nearly the same behavior for all tested detectors. The ISD allows to perform dose measurements at a very high accuracy from low (50 cGy/min) to high dose rates (800 cGy/min) and found to be independent of dose rate variation. The detection system also showed an excellent linearity with dose; hence calibration was easily achieved. Conclusions: The developed detector can be used to accurately measure the delivered dose at small field during the treatment of small volume tumors. The author’s measurement shows that despite using a non-water equivalent detector, the detector can be a powerful candidate for beam characterization and quality assurance in e.g., radiosurgery, Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT), and brachytherapy. Our detector can provide real-time dose measurement and good spatial resolution with immediate readout, simplicity, flexibility, and robustness

Immunohistochemical subtypes predict the clinical outcome in high-risk node-negative breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant FEC regimen: results of a single-center retrospective study

Prognostic factors for disease-free survival in patients treated before 2005 September: multivariate analysis. (DOCX 15 kb

Classification of pig calls produced from birth to slaughter according to their emotional valence and context of production

Vocal expression of emotions has been observed across species and could provide a non-invasive and reliable means to assess animal emotions. We investigated if pig vocal indicators of emotions revealed in previous studies are valid across call types and contexts, and could potentially be used to develop an automated emotion monitoring tool. We performed an analysis of an extensive and unique dataset of low (LF) and high frequency (HF) calls emitted by pigs across numerous commercial contexts from birth to slaughter (7414 calls from 411 pigs). Our results revealed that the valence attributed to the contexts of production (positive versus negative) affected all investigated parameters in both LF and HF. Similarly, the context category affected all parameters. We then tested two different automated methods for call classification; a neural network revealed much higher classification accuracy compared to a permuted discriminant function analysis (pDFA), both for the valence (neural network: 91.5%; pDFA analysis weighted average across LF and HF (cross-classified): 61.7% with a chance level at 50.5%) and context (neural network: 81.5%; pDFA analysis weighted average across LF and HF (cross-classified): 19.4% with a chance level at 14.3%). These results suggest that an automated recognition system can be developed to monitor pig welfare on-farm.publishedVersio

Expression of emotional arousal in two different piglet call types

Humans as well as many animal species reveal their emotional state in their voice. Vocal features show strikingly similar correlation patterns with emotional states across mammalian species, suggesting that the vocal expression of emotion follows highly conserved signalling rules. To fully understand the principles of emotional signalling in mammals it is, however, necessary to also account for any inconsistencies in the way that they are acoustically encoded. Here we investigate whether the expression of emotions differs between call types produced by the same species. We compare the acoustic structure of two common piglet calls—the scream (a distress call) and the grunt (a contact call)—across three levels of arousal in a negative situation. We find that while the central frequency of calls increases with arousal in both call types, the amplitude and tonal quality (harmonic-to-noise ratio) show contrasting patterns: as arousal increased, the intensity also increased in screams, but not in grunts, while the harmonicity increased in screams but decreased in grunts. Our results suggest that the expression of arousal depends on the function and acoustic specificity of the call type. The fact that more vocal features varied with arousal in scream calls than in grunts is consistent with the idea that distress calls have evolved to convey information about emotional arousal

“Biological Geometry Perception”: Visual Discrimination of Eccentricity Is Related to Individual Motor Preferences

In the continuum between a stroke and a circle including all possible ellipses, some eccentricities seem more “biologically preferred” than others by the motor system, probably because they imply less demanding coordination patterns. Based on the idea that biological motion perception relies on knowledge of the laws that govern the motor system, we investigated whether motorically preferential and non-preferential eccentricities are visually discriminated differently. In contrast with previous studies that were interested in the effect of kinematic/time features of movements on their visual perception, we focused on geometric/spatial features, and therefore used a static visual display.In a dual-task paradigm, participants visually discriminated 13 static ellipses of various eccentricities while performing a finger-thumb opposition sequence with either the dominant or the non-dominant hand. Our assumption was that because the movements used to trace ellipses are strongly lateralized, a motor task performed with the dominant hand should affect the simultaneous visual discrimination more strongly. We found that visual discrimination was not affected when the motor task was performed by the non-dominant hand. Conversely, it was impaired when the motor task was performed with the dominant hand, but only for the ellipses that we defined as preferred by the motor system, based on an assessment of individual preferences during an independent graphomotor task.Visual discrimination of ellipses depends on the state of the motor neural networks controlling the dominant hand, but only when their eccentricity is “biologically preferred”. Importantly, this effect emerges on the basis of a static display, suggesting that what we call “biological geometry”, i.e., geometric features resulting from preferential movements is relevant information for the visual processing of bidimensional shapes

Telomerase promoter mutations in cancer: an emerging molecular biomarker?

João Vinagre, Vasco Pinto and Ricardo Celestino contributed equally to the manuscript.Cell immortalization has been considered for a long time as a classic hallmark of cancer cells. Besides telomerase reactivation, such immortalization could be due to telomere maintenance through the “alternative mechanism of telomere lengthening” (ALT) but the mechanisms underlying both forms of reactivation remained elusive. Mutations in the coding region of telomerase gene are very rare in the cancer setting, despite being associated with some degenerative diseases. Recently, mutations in telomerase (TERT) gene promoter were found in sporadic and familial melanoma and subsequently in several cancer models, notably in gliomas, thyroid cancer and bladder cancer. The importance of these findings has been reinforced by the association of TERT mutations in some cancer types with tumour aggressiveness and patient survival. In the first part of this review, we summarize the data on the biology of telomeres and telomerase, available methodological approaches and non-neoplastic diseases associated with telomere dysfunction. In the second part, we review the information on telomerase expression and genetic alterations in the most relevant types of cancer (skin, thyroid, bladder and central nervous system) on record, and discuss the value of telomerase as a new biomarker with impact on the prognosis and survival of the patients and as a putative therapeutic target

Identifying associations between diabetes and acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure: an analysis of the LUNG SAFE database

Background: Diabetes mellitus is a common co-existing disease in the critically ill. Diabetes mellitus may reduce the risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), but data from previous studies are conflicting. The objective of this study was to evaluate associations between pre-existing diabetes mellitus and ARDS in critically ill patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (AHRF). Methods: An ancillary analysis of a global, multi-centre prospective observational study (LUNG SAFE) was undertaken. LUNG SAFE evaluated all patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) over a 4-week period, that required mechanical ventilation and met AHRF criteria. Patients who had their AHRF fully explained by cardiac failure were excluded. Important clinical characteristics were included in a stepwise selection approach (forward and backward selection combined with a significance level of 0.05) to identify a set of independent variables associated with having ARDS at any time, developing ARDS (defined as ARDS occurring after day 2 from meeting AHRF criteria) and with hospital mortality. Furthermore, propensity score analysis was undertaken to account for the differences in baseline characteristics between patients with and without diabetes mellitus, and the association between diabetes mellitus and outcomes of interest was assessed on matched samples. Results: Of the 4107 patients with AHRF included in this study, 3022 (73.6%) patients fulfilled ARDS criteria at admission or developed ARDS during their ICU stay. Diabetes mellitus was a pre-existing co-morbidity in 913 patients (22.2% of patients with AHRF). In multivariable analysis, there was no association between diabetes mellitus and having ARDS (OR 0.93 (0.78-1.11); p = 0.39), developing ARDS late (OR 0.79 (0.54-1.15); p = 0.22), or hospital mortality in patients with ARDS (1.15 (0.93-1.42); p = 0.19). In a matched sample of patients, there was no association between diabetes mellitus and outcomes of interest. Conclusions: In a large, global observational study of patients with AHRF, no association was found between diabetes mellitus and having ARDS, developing ARDS, or outcomes from ARDS. Trial registration: NCT02010073. Registered on 12 December 2013

Epidemiology and patterns of tracheostomy practice in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome in ICUs across 50 countries

Background: To better understand the epidemiology and patterns of tracheostomy practice for patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), we investigated the current usage of tracheostomy in patients with ARDS recruited into the Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG-SAFE) study. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of LUNG-SAFE, an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients receiving invasive or noninvasive ventilation in 50 countries spanning 5 continents. The study was carried out over 4 weeks consecutively in the winter of 2014, and 459 ICUs participated. We evaluated the clinical characteristics, management and outcomes of patients that received tracheostomy, in the cohort of patients that developed ARDS on day 1-2 of acute hypoxemic respiratory failure, and in a subsequent propensity-matched cohort. Results: Of the 2377 patients with ARDS that fulfilled the inclusion criteria, 309 (13.0%) underwent tracheostomy during their ICU stay. Patients from high-income European countries (n = 198/1263) more frequently underwent tracheostomy compared to patients from non-European high-income countries (n = 63/649) or patients from middle-income countries (n = 48/465). Only 86/309 (27.8%) underwent tracheostomy on or before day 7, while the median timing of tracheostomy was 14 (Q1-Q3, 7-21) days after onset of ARDS. In the subsample matched by propensity score, ICU and hospital stay were longer in patients with tracheostomy. While patients with tracheostomy had the highest survival probability, there was no difference in 60-day or 90-day mortality in either the patient subgroup that survived for at least 5 days in ICU, or in the propensity-matched subsample. Conclusions: Most patients that receive tracheostomy do so after the first week of critical illness. Tracheostomy may prolong patient survival but does not reduce 60-day or 90-day mortality. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02010073. Registered on 12 December 2013