Value at Risk models with long memory features and their economic performance

We study alternative dynamics for Value at Risk (VaR) that incorporate a slow moving component and information on recent aggregate returns in established quantile (auto) regression models. These models are compared on their economic performance, and also on metrics of first-order importance such as violation ratios. By better economic performance, we mean that changes in the VaR forecasts should have a lower variance to reduce transaction costs and should lead to lower exceedance sizes without raising the average level of the VaR. We find that, in combination with a targeted estimation strategy, our proposed models lead to improved performance in both statistical and economic terms

Upper airways colonisation of Streptococcus pneumoniae in adults aged 60 years and older: A systematic review of prevalence and individual participant data meta-analysis of risk factors

Background: Colonisation with Streptococcus pneumoniae can lead to invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia. Pneumococcal acquisition and prevalence of colonisation are high in children. In older adults, a population susceptible to pneumococcal disease, colonisation prevalence is reported to be lower, but studies are heterogeneous. Methods: This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence of, and risk factors for, pneumococcal colonisation in adults ≥ 60 years of age (PROSPERO #42016036891). We identified peer-reviewed studies reporting the prevalence of S. pneumoniae colonisation using MEDLINE and EMBASE (until April 2016), excluding studies of acute disease. Participant-level data on risk factors were sought from each study. Findings: Of 2202 studies screened, 29 were analysable: 18 provided participant-level data (representing 6290 participants). Prevalence of detected pneumococcal colonisation was 0–39% by conventional culture methods and 3–23% by molecular methods. In a multivariate analysis, colonisation was higher in persons from nursing facilities compared with the community (odds ratio (OR) 2•30, 95% CI 1•26–4•21 and OR 7•72, 95% CI 1•15–51•85, respectively), in those who were currently smoking (OR 1•69, 95% CI 1•12–2•53) or those who had regular contact with children (OR 1•93, 95%CI 1•27–2•93). Persons living in urban areas had significantly lower carriage prevalence (OR 0•43, 95%CI 0•27–0•70). Interpretation: Overall prevalence of pneumococcal colonisation in older adults was higher than expected but varied by risk factors. Future studies should further explore risk factors for colonisation, to highlight targets for focussed intervention such as pneumococcal vaccination of high-risk groups. Funding: No funding was required

NK Cells Promote Th-17 Mediated Corneal Barrier Disruption in Dry Eye

The conjunctiva contains a specialized population of lymphocytes that reside in the epithelium, named intraepithelial lymphocytes (IEL).Here we characterized the IEL population prior to and after experimental desiccating stress (DS) for 5 or 10 days (DS5, DS10) and evaluated the effect of NK depletion on DS. The frequency of IELs in normal murine conjunctiva was CD3(+)CD103(+) (~22%), CD3(+)γδ(+) (~9.6%), CD3(+)NK(+) (2%), CD3(-)NK(+) (~4.4%), CD3(+)CD8α (~0.9%), and CD4 (~0.6%). Systemic depletion of NK cells prior and during DS led to a decrease in the frequency of total and activated DCs, a decrease in T helper-17(+) cells in the cervical lymph nodes and generation of less pathogenic CD4(+)T cells. B6.nude recipient mice of adoptively transferred CD4(+)T cells isolated from NK-depleted DS5 donor mice showed significantly less corneal barrier disruption, lower levels of IL-17A, CCL20 and MMP-3 in the cornea epithelia compared to recipients of control CD4(+)T cells.Taken together, these results show that the NK IELs are involved in the acute immune response to desiccation-induced dry eye by activating DC, which in turn coordinate generation of the pathogenic Th-17 response

Diversity of Staphylococcus aureus Isolates in European Wildlife

Staphylococcus aureus is a well-known colonizer and cause of infection among animals and it has been described from numerous domestic and wild animal species. The aim of the present study was to investigate the molecular epidemiology of S. aureus in a convenience sample of European wildlife and to review what previously has been observed in the subject field. 124 S. aureus isolates were collected from wildlife in Germany, Austria and Sweden; they were characterized by DNA microarray hybridization and, for isolates with novel hybridization patterns, by multilocus sequence typing (MLST). The isolates were assigned to 29 clonal complexes and singleton sequence types (CC1, CC5, CC6, CC7, CC8, CC9, CC12, CC15, CC22, CC25, CC30, CC49, CC59, CC88, CC97, CC130, CC133, CC398, ST425, CC599, CC692, CC707, ST890, CC1956, ST2425, CC2671, ST2691, CC2767 and ST2963), some of which (ST2425, ST2691, ST2963) were not described previously. Resistance rates in wildlife strains were rather low and mecA-MRSA isolates were rare (n = 6). mecC-MRSA (n = 8) were identified from a fox, a fallow deer, hares and hedgehogs. The common cattle- associated lineages CC479 and CC705 were not detected in wildlife in the present study while, in contrast, a third common cattle lineage, CC97, was found to be common among cervids. No Staphylococcus argenteus or Staphylococcus schweitzeri-like isolates were found. Systematic studies are required to monitor the possible transmission of human- and livestock- associated S. aureus/MRSA to wildlife and vice versa as well as the possible transmission, by unprotected contact to animals. The prevalence of S. aureus/MRSA in wildlife as well as its population structures in different wildlife host species warrants further investigation

Identification of surface proteins in Enterococcus faecalis V583

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Surface proteins are a key to a deeper understanding of the behaviour of Gram-positive bacteria interacting with the human gastro-intestinal tract. Such proteins contribute to cell wall synthesis and maintenance and are important for interactions between the bacterial cell and the human host. Since they are exposed and may play roles in pathogenicity, surface proteins are interesting targets for drug design.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using methods based on proteolytic "shaving" of bacterial cells and subsequent mass spectrometry-based protein identification, we have identified surface-located proteins in <it>Enterococcus faecalis </it>V583. In total 69 unique proteins were identified, few of which have been identified and characterized previously. 33 of these proteins are predicted to be cytoplasmic, whereas the other 36 are predicted to have surface locations (31) or to be secreted (5). Lipid-anchored proteins were the most dominant among the identified surface proteins. The seemingly most abundant surface proteins included a membrane protein with a potentially shedded extracellular sulfatase domain that could act on the sulfate groups in mucin and a lipid-anchored fumarate reductase that could contribute to generation of reactive oxygen species.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The present proteome analysis gives an experimental impression of the protein landscape on the cell surface of the pathogenic bacterium <it>E. faecalis</it>. The 36 identified secreted (5) and surface (31) proteins included several proteins involved in cell wall synthesis, pheromone-regulated processes, and transport of solutes, as well as proteins with unknown function. These proteins stand out as interesting targets for further investigation of the interaction between <it>E. faecalis </it>and its environment.</p

Defining Chlorophyll-a Reference Conditions in European Lakes

The concept of “reference conditions” describes the benchmark against which current conditions are compared when assessing the status of water bodies. In this paper we focus on the establishment of reference conditions for European lakes according to a phytoplankton biomass indicator—the concentration of chlorophyll-a. A mostly spatial approach (selection of existing lakes with no or minor human impact) was used to set the reference conditions for chlorophyll-a values, supplemented by historical data, paleolimnological investigations and modelling. The work resulted in definition of reference conditions and the boundary between “high” and “good” status for 15 main lake types and five ecoregions of Europe: Alpine, Atlantic, Central/Baltic, Mediterranean, and Northern. Additionally, empirical models were developed for estimating site-specific reference chlorophyll-a concentrations from a set of potential predictor variables. The results were recently formulated into the EU legislation, marking the first attempt in international water policy to move from chemical quality standards to ecological quality targets

Recombinant Probiotic Expressing Listeria Adhesion Protein Attenuates Listeria monocytogenes Virulence In Vitro

BACKGROUND: Listeria monocytogenes, an intracellular foodborne pathogen, infects immunocompromised hosts. The primary route of transmission is through contaminated food. In the gastrointestinal tract, it traverses the epithelial barrier through intracellular or paracellular routes. Strategies to prevent L. monocytogenes entry can potentially minimize infection in high-risk populations. Listeria adhesion protein (LAP) aids L. monocytogenes in crossing epithelial barriers via the paracellular route. The use of recombinant probiotic bacteria expressing LAP would aid targeted clearance of Listeria from the gut and protect high-risk populations from infection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The objective was to investigate the ability of probiotic bacteria or LAP-expressing recombinant probiotic Lactobacillus paracasei (Lbp(LAP)) to prevent L. monocytogenes adhesion, invasion, and transwell-based transepithelial translocation in a Caco-2 cell culture model. Several wild type probiotic bacteria showed strong adhesion to Caco-2 cells but none effectively prevented L. monocytogenes infection. Pre-exposure to Lbp(LAP) for 1, 4, 15, or 24 h significantly (P<0.05) reduced adhesion, invasion, and transepithelial translocation of L. monocytogenes in Caco-2 cells, whereas pre-exposure to parental Lb. paracasei had no significant effect. Similarly, Lbp(LAP) pre-exposure reduced L. monocytogenes translocation by as much as 46% after 24 h. Lbp(LAP) also prevented L. monocytogenes-mediated cell damage and compromise of tight junction integrity. Furthermore, Lbp(LAP) cells reduced L. monocytogenes-mediated cell cytotoxicity by 99.8% after 1 h and 79% after 24 h. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Wild type probiotic bacteria were unable to prevent L. monocytogenes infection in vitro. In contrast, Lbp(LAP) blocked adhesion, invasion, and translocation of L. monocytogenes by interacting with host cell receptor Hsp60, thereby protecting cells from infection. These data show promise for the use of recombinant probiotics in preventing L. monocytogenes infection in high-risk populations