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Arctic tundra shrubification: a review of mechanisms and impacts on ecosystem carbon balance

Vegetation composition shifts, and in particular, shrub expansion across the Arctic tundra are some of the most important and widely observed responses of high-latitude ecosystems to rapid climate warming. These changes in vegetation potentially alter ecosystem carbon balances by affecting a complex set of soil-plant-atmosphere interactions. In this review, we synthesize the literature on (a) observed shrub expansion, (b) key climatic and environmental controls and mechanisms that affect shrub expansion, (c) impacts of shrub expansion on ecosystem carbon balance, and (d) research gaps and future directions to improve process representations in land models. A broad range of evidence, including in-situ observations, warming experiments, and remotely sensed vegetation indices have shown increases in growth and abundance of woody plants, particularly tall deciduous shrubs, and advancing shrublines across the circumpolar Arctic. This recent shrub expansion is affected by several interacting factors including climate warming, accelerated nutrient cycling, changing disturbance regimes, and local variation in topography and hydrology. Under warmer conditions, tall deciduous shrubs can be more competitive than other plant functional types in tundra ecosystems because of their taller maximum canopy heights and often dense canopy structure. Competitive abilities of tall deciduous shrubs vs herbaceous plants are also controlled by variation in traits that affect carbon and nutrient investments and retention strategies in leaves, stems, and roots. Overall, shrub expansion may affect tundra carbon balances by enhancing ecosystem carbon uptake and altering ecosystem respiration, and through complex feedback mechanisms that affect snowpack dynamics, permafrost degradation, surface energy balance, and litter inputs. Observed and projected tall deciduous shrub expansion and the subsequent effects on surface energy and carbon balances may alter feedbacks to the climate system. Land models, including those integrated in Earth System Models, need to account for differences in plant traits that control competitive interactions to accurately predict decadal- to centennial-scale tundra vegetation and carbon dynamics

How Can the Health System Retain Women in HIV Treatment for a Lifetime? A Discrete Choice Experiment in Ethiopia and Mozambique

Introduction: Option B+, an approach that involves provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) to all HIV-infected pregnant women for life, is the preferred strategy for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV. Lifelong retention in care is essential to its success. We conducted a discrete choice experiment in Ethiopia and Mozambique to identify health system characteristics preferred by HIV-infected women to promote continuity of care. Methods: Women living with HIV and receiving care at hospitals in Oromia Region, Ethiopia and Zambézia Province, Mozambique were shown nine choice cards and asked to select one of two hypothetical health facilities, each with six varying characteristics related to the delivery of HIV services for long term treatment. Mixed logit models were used to estimate the influence of six health service attributes on choice of clinics. Results: 2,033 women participated in the study (response rate 97.8% in Ethiopia and 94.7% in Mozambique). Among the various attributes of structure and content of lifelong ART services, the most important attributes identified in both countries were respectful provider attitude and ability to obtain non-HIV health services during HIV-related visits. Availability of counseling support services was also a driver of choice. Facility type, i.e., hospital versus health center, was substantially less important. Conclusions: Efforts to enhance retention in HIV care and treatment for pregnant women should focus on promoting respectful care by providers and integrating access to non-HIV health services in the same visit, as well as continuing to strengthen counseling

Causes of stillbirth and death among children younger than 5 years in eastern Hararghe, Ethiopia: a population-based post-mortem study

Background Child mortality is high in Ethiopia, but reliable data on the causes of death are scarce. We aimed to gather data for the contributory causes of stillbirth and child deaths in eastern Ethiopia. Methods In this population-based post-mortem study, we established a death-notification system in health facilities and in the community in Kersa (rural), Haramaya (rural) and Harar (urban) in eastern Ethiopia, at a new site of the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network. We collected ante-mortem data, did verbal autopsies, and collected post-mortem samples via minimally invasive tissue sampling from stillbirths (weighing at least 1000 g or with an estimated gestational age of at least 28 weeks) and children who died younger than 5 years. Children—or their mothers, in the case of stillbirths and deaths in children younger than 6 months—had to have lived in the catchment area for the past 6 months to be included. Molecular, microbiological, and histopathological analyses were done in collected samples. Cause of death was established by an expert panel on the basis of these data and classified as underlying, comorbid, or immediate separately for stillbirths, neonatal deaths (deaths aged 0–27 days), and child deaths (aged 28 days to <5 years). Findings Between Feb 4, 2019, and Feb 3, 2021, 312 deaths were eligible for inclusion, and the families gave consent in 195 (63%) cases. Cause of death was established in 193 (99%) cases. Among 114 stillbirths, the underlying cause of death was perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia in 60 (53%) and birth defects in 24 (21%). Among 59 neonatal deaths, the most common underlying cause was perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia (17 [29%]) and the most common immediate cause of death was neonatal sepsis, which occurred in 27 (60%). Among 20 deaths in children aged 28 days to 59 months, malnutrition was the leading underlying cause (15 [75%]) and infections were common immediate and comorbid causes. Pathogens were identified in 19 (95%) child deaths, most commonly Klebsiella pneumoniae and Streptococcus pneumoniae. Interpretation Perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia, infections, and birth defects accounted for most stillbirths and child deaths. Most deaths could have been prevented with feasible interventions, such as improved maternity services, folate supplementation, and improved vaccine uptake. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Accuracy of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 for screening to detect major depression : updated systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis

Objective: To update a previous individual participant data meta-analysis and determine the accuracy of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), the most commonly used depression screening tool in general practice, for detecting major depression overall and by study or participant subgroups. Design: Systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis. Data sources: Medline, Medline In-Process, and Other Non-Indexed Citations via Ovid, PsycINFO, Web of Science searched through 9 May 2018. Review methods: Eligible studies administered the PHQ-9 and classified current major depression status using a validated semistructured diagnostic interview (designed for clinician administration), fully structured interview (designed for lay administration), or the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI; a brief interview designed for lay administration). A bivariate random effects meta-analytic model was used to obtain point and interval estimates of pooled PHQ-9 sensitivity and specificity at cut-off values 5-15, separately, among studies that used semistructured diagnostic interviews (eg, Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual), fully structured interviews (eg, Composite International Diagnostic Interview), and the MINI. Meta-regression was used to investigate whether PHQ-9 accuracy correlated with reference standard categories and participant characteristics. Results: Data from 44 503 total participants (27 146 additional from the update) were obtained from 100 of 127 eligible studies (42 additional studies; 79% eligible studies; 86% eligible participants). Among studies with a semistructured interview reference standard, pooled PHQ-9 sensitivity and specificity (95% confidence interval) at the standard cut-off value of ≥10, which maximised combined sensitivity and specificity, were 0.85 (0.79 to 0.89) and 0.85 (0.82 to 0.87), respectively. Specificity was similar across reference standards, but sensitivity in studies with semistructured interviews was 7-24% (median 21%) higher than with fully structured reference standards and 2-14% (median 11%) higher than with the MINI across cut-off values. Across reference standards and cut-off values, specificity was 0-10% (median 3%) higher for men and 0-12 (median 5%) higher for people aged 60 or older. Conclusions: Researchers and clinicians could use results to determine outcomes, such as total number of positive screens and false positive screens, at different PHQ-9 cut-off values for different clinical settings using the knowledge translation tool at www.depressionscreening100.com/phq. Study registration: PROSPERO CRD42014010673

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18 : a modelling study

Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2 ·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676· 5 (513· 6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81· 1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas

Causes of stillbirth and death among children younger than 5 years in eastern Hararghe, Ethiopia: a population-based post-mortem study

BACKGROUND: Child mortality is high in Ethiopia, but reliable data on the causes of death are scarce. We aimed to gather data for the contributory causes of stillbirth and child deaths in eastern Ethiopia. METHODS: In this population-based post-mortem study, we established a death-notification system in health facilities and in the community in Kersa (rural), Haramaya (rural) and Harar (urban) in eastern Ethiopia, at a new site of the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network. We collected ante-mortem data, did verbal autopsies, and collected post-mortem samples via minimally invasive tissue sampling from stillbirths (weighing at least 1000 g or with an estimated gestational age of at least 28 weeks) and children who died younger than 5 years. Children-or their mothers, in the case of stillbirths and deaths in children younger than 6 months-had to have lived in the catchment area for the past 6 months to be included. Molecular, microbiological, and histopathological analyses were done in collected samples. Cause of death was established by an expert panel on the basis of these data and classified as underlying, comorbid, or immediate separately for stillbirths, neonatal deaths (deaths aged 0-27 days), and child deaths (aged 28 days to <5 years). FINDINGS: Between Feb 4, 2019, and Feb 3, 2021, 312 deaths were eligible for inclusion, and the families gave consent in 195 (63%) cases. Cause of death was established in 193 (99%) cases. Among 114 stillbirths, the underlying cause of death was perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia in 60 (53%) and birth defects in 24 (21%). Among 59 neonatal deaths, the most common underlying cause was perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia (17 [29%]) and the most common immediate cause of death was neonatal sepsis, which occurred in 27 (60%). Among 20 deaths in children aged 28 days to 59 months, malnutrition was the leading underlying cause (15 [75%]) and infections were common immediate and comorbid causes. Pathogens were identified in 19 (95%) child deaths, most commonly Klebsiella pneumoniae and Streptococcus pneumoniae. INTERPRETATION: Perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia, infections, and birth defects accounted for most stillbirths and child deaths. Most deaths could have been prevented with feasible interventions, such as improved maternity services, folate supplementation, and improved vaccine uptake. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950