Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes

The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.F.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Oceanic bromine emissions weighted by their ozone depletion potential

At present, anthropogenic halogens and oceanic emissions of Very Short-Lived Substances (VSLS) are responsible for stratospheric ozone destruction. Emissions of the, mostly long-lived, anthropogenic halogens have been reduced, and as a consequence, their atmospheric abundance has started to decline since the beginning of the 21st century. Emissions of VSLS are, on the other hand, expected to increase in the future. VSLS are known to have large natural sources; however increasing evidence arises that their oceanic production and emission is enhanced by anthropogenic activities. Here, we introduce a new approach of assessing the overall impact of all oceanic halogen emissions on stratospheric ozone by calculating Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP)-weighted emissions of VSLS. Seasonally and spatially dependent, global distributions are derived exemplary for CHBr3 for the period 1999–2006. At present, ODP-weighted emissions of CHBr3 amount up to 50% of ODP-weighted anthropogenic emissions of CFC-11 and to 9% of all long-lived ozone depleting substances. The ODP-weighted emissions are large where strong oceanic emissions coincide with high-reaching convective activity and show pronounced peaks at the equator and the coasts with largest contributions from the Maritime Continent and West Pacific. Variations of tropical convective activity lead to seasonal shifts in the spatial distribution of the ODP with the updraught mass flux explaining 71% of the variance of the ODP distribution. Future climate projections based on RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 31% increase of the ODP-weighted CHBr3 emissions until 2100 compared to present values. This increase is related to larger convective activity and increasing emissions in a future climate; however, is reduced at the same time by less effective bromine-related ozone depletion. The comparison of the ODP-weighted emissions of short and long-lived halocarbons provides a new concept for assessing the overall impact of oceanic bromine emissions on stratospheric ozone depletion for current conditions and future projections

The novel CXCR4 antagonist POL5551 mobilizes hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells with greater efficiency than Plerixafor

Mobilized blood has supplanted bone marrow (BM) as the primary source of hematopoietic stem cells for autologous and allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Pharmacologically enforced egress of hematopoietic stem cells from BM, or mobilization, has been achieved by directly or indirectly targeting the CXCL12/CXCR4 axis. Shortcomings of the standard mobilizing agent, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), administered alone or in combination with the only approved CXCR4 antagonist, Plerixafor, continue to fuel the quest for new mobilizing agents. Using Protein Epitope Mimetics technology, a novel peptidic CXCR4 antagonist, POL5551, was developed. In vitro data presented herein indicate high affinity to and specificity for CXCR4. POL5551 exhibited rapid mobilization kinetics and unprecedented efficiency in C57BL/6 mice, exceeding that of Plerixafor and at higher doses also of G-CSF. POL5551-mobilized stem cells demonstrated adequate transplantation properties. In contrast to G-CSF, POL5551 did not induce major morphological changes in the BM of mice. Moreover, we provide evidence of direct POL5551 binding to hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) in vivo, strengthening the hypothesis that CXCR4 antagonists mediate mobilization by direct targeting of HSPCs. In summary, POL5551 is a potent mobilizing agent for HSPCs in mice with promising therapeutic potential if these data can be orroborated in humans

Information extraction from free text for aiding transdiagnostic psychiatry: constructing NLP pipelines tailored to clinicians’ needs

Background: Developing predictive models for precision psychiatry is challenging because of unavailability of the necessary data: extracting useful information from existing electronic health record (EHR) data is not straightforward, and available clinical trial datasets are often not representative for heterogeneous patient groups. The aim of this study was constructing a natural language processing (NLP) pipeline that extracts variables for building predictive models from EHRs. We specifically tailor the pipeline for extracting information on outcomes of psychiatry treatment trajectories, applicable throughout the entire spectrum of mental health disorders (“transdiagnostic”). Methods: A qualitative study into beliefs of clinical staff on measuring treatment outcomes was conducted to construct a candidate list of variables to extract from the EHR. To investigate if the proposed variables are suitable for measuring treatment effects, resulting themes were compared to transdiagnostic outcome measures currently used in psychiatry research and compared to the HDRS (as a gold standard) through systematic review, resulting in an ideal set of variables. To extract these from EHR data, a semi-rule based NLP pipeline was constructed and tailored to the candidate variables using Prodigy. Classification accuracy and F1-scores were calculated and pipeline output was compared to HDRS scores using clinical notes from patients admitted in 2019 and 2020. Results: Analysis of 34 questionnaires answered by clinical staff resulted in four themes defining treatment outcomes: symptom reduction, general well-being, social functioning and personalization. Systematic review revealed 242 different transdiagnostic outcome measures, with the 36-item Short-Form Survey for quality of life (SF36) being used most consistently, showing substantial overlap with the themes from the qualitative study. Comparing SF36 to HDRS scores in 26 studies revealed moderate to good correlations (0.62—0.79) and good positive predictive values (0.75—0.88). The NLP pipeline developed with notes from 22,170 patients reached an accuracy of 95 to 99 percent (F1 scores: 0.38 – 0.86) on detecting these themes, evaluated on data from 361 patients. Conclusions: The NLP pipeline developed in this study extracts outcome measures from the EHR that cater specifically to the needs of clinical staff and align with outcome measures used to detect treatment effects in clinical trials

Overcoming establishment thresholds for peat mosses in human-made bog pools

Globally, peatlands have been affected by drainage and peat extraction, with adverse effects on their functioning and services. To restore peat‐forming vegetation, drained bogs are being rewetted on a large scale. Although this practice results in higher groundwater levels, unfortunately it often creates deep lakes in parts where peat was extracted to greater depths than the surroundings. Revegetation of these deeper waters by peat mosses appears to be challenging due to strong abiotic feedbacks that keep these systems in an undesired bare state. In this study, we theoretically explore if a floating peat mat and an open human‐made bog lake can be considered two alternative stable states using a simple model, and experimentally test in the field whether stable states are present, and whether a state shift can be accomplished using floating biodegradable structures that mimic buoyant peat. We transplanted two peat moss species into these structures (pioneer sp. Sphagnum cuspidatum and later‐successional sp. S. palustre) with and without additional organic substrate. Our model suggests that these open human‐made bog lakes and floating peat mats can indeed be regarded as alternative stable states. Natural recovery by spontaneous peat moss growth, i.e., a state shift from open water to floating mats, is only possible when the water table is sufficiently shallow to avoid light limitation (<0.29 m at our site). Our experiment revealed that alternative stable states are present and that the floating structures facilitated the growth of pioneer S. cuspidatum and vascular plants. Organic substrate addition particularly facilitated vascular plant growth, which correlated to higher moss height. The structures remained too wet for the late‐successional species S. palustre. We conclude that open water and floating peat mats in human‐made bog lakes can be considered two alternative stable states, and that temporary floating establishment structures can induce a state shift from the open water state to peat‐forming vegetation state. These findings imply that for successful restoration, there is a clear water depth threshold to enable peat moss growth and there is no need for addition of large amounts of donor‐peat substrate. Correct species selection for restoration is crucial for success

Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long-Lived Gases: A Search for CH 3 CCl 3 Alternatives

An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH₃CCl₃) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom‐up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long‐lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH‐SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long‐term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC‐32 (CH₂F₂), HFC‐134a (CH₂FCF₃, HFC‐152a (CH₃CHF₂), and HCFC‐22 (CHClF₂), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272 K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF

Ixazomib, daratumumab and low-dose dexamethasone in intermediate-fit patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma:an open-label phase 2 trial

Background: The outcome of non-transplant eligible newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) patients is heterogeneous, partly depending on frailty level. The aim of this study was to prospectively investigate the efficacy and safety of Ixazomib-Daratumumab-low-dose dexamethasone (Ixa-Dara-dex) in NDMM intermediate-fit patients. Methods: In this phase II multicenter HOVON-143 study, IMWG Frailty index based intermediate-fit patients, were treated with 9 induction cycles of Ixa-Dara-dex, followed by maintenance with ID for a maximum of 2 years. The primary endpoint was overall response rate on induction treatment. Patients were included from October 2017 until May 2019. Trial Registration Number: NTR6297. Findings: Sixty-five patients were included. Induction therapy resulted in an overall response rate of 71%. Early mortality was 1.5%. At a median follow-up of 41.0 months, median progression-free survival (PFS) was 18.2 months and 3-year overall survival 83%. Discontinuation of therapy occurred in 77% of patients, 49% due to progression, 9% due to toxicity, 8% due to incompliance, 3% due to sudden death and 8% due to other reasons. Dose modifications of ixazomib were required frequently (37% and 53% of patients during induction and maintenance, respectively), mainly due to, often low grade, polyneuropathy. During maintenance 23% of patients received daratumumab alone. Global quality of life (QoL) improved significantly and was clinically relevant, which persisted during maintenance treatment. Interpretation: Ixazomib-Daratumumab-low-dose dexamethasone as first line treatment in intermediate-fit NDMM patients is safe and improves global QoL. However, efficacy was limited, partly explained by ixazomib-induced toxicity, hampering long term tolerability of this 3-drug regimen. This highlights the need for more efficacious and tolerable regimens improving the outcome in vulnerable intermediate-fit patients. Funding: Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited.</p