Tolerance and confidence limits for classes of distributions based on failure rate

Tolerance and confidence limits for classes of distributions based on failure rate

Statistical Estimation Procedures for the ''burn-in'' Process

Statistical estimation procedures for identifying and eliminating poor quality or defective item

Spectacular bodies, unsettling objects: material performance as intervention in stereotypes of refugees

The body of Palestinian refugee puppetry artist Husam Abed co-exists in Dafa Puppet Theatre’s 'The Smooth Life' as spectator, puppeteer, and performer as he manipulates pieces of wood, cardboard, photographs, and grains of rice to construct his story of growing up in a refugee camp. Given the recent attention to how material and technological intersections with human bodies reconstruct stereotypes in liberatory ways in performance, this analysis explores the ways in which material performance practice can intervene in stereotyped media-driven representations of refugee bodies. Refugee bodies in such representations are fixed outside of agentive possibility: mediated, materially absent, unmournable. These stereotyped bodies circulate in multiple media narratives that represent the refugee body on a spectrum from threat/contamination to pitiable/victim, narratives that provoke affective responses while foreclosing meaningful intervention. Through analysing the puppetry/object theatre piece 'The Smooth Life', Purcell-Gates explores how these material performance practices unsettle and disrupt this spectrum of stereotypes

Endpoints for randomized controlled clinical trials for COVID-19 treatments

Background: Endpoint choice for randomized controlled trials of treatments for novel coronavirus-induced disease (COVID-19) is complex. Trials must start rapidly to identify treatments that can be used as part of the outbreak response, in the midst of considerable uncertainty and limited information. COVID-19 presentation is heterogeneous, ranging from mild disease that improves within days to critical disease that can last weeks to over a month and can end in death. While improvement in mortality would provide unquestionable evidence about the clinical significance of a treatment, sample sizes for a study evaluating mortality are large and may be impractical, particularly given a multitude of putative therapies to evaluate. Furthermore, patient states in between “cure” and “death” represent meaningful distinctions. Clinical severity scores have been proposed as an alternative. However, the appropriate summary measure for severity scores has been the subject of debate, particularly given the variable time course of COVID-19. Outcomes measured at fixed time points, such as a comparison of severity scores between treatment and control at day 14, may risk missing the time of clinical benefit. An endpoint such as time to improvement (or recovery) avoids the timing problem. However, some have argued that power losses will result from reducing the ordinal scale to a binary state of “recovered” versus “not recovered.” Methods: We evaluate statistical power for possible trial endpoints for COVID-19 treatment trials using simulation models and data from two recent COVID-19 treatment trials. Results: Power for fixed time-point methods depends heavily on the time selected for evaluation. Time-to-event approaches have reasonable statistical power, even when compared with a fixed time-point method evaluated at the optimal time. Discussion: Time-to-event analysis methods have advantages in the COVID-19 setting, unless the optimal time for evaluating treatment effect is known in advance. Even when the optimal time is known, a time-to-event approach may increase power for interim analyses. © The Author(s) 2020

A stochastic evolutionary model generating a mixture of exponential distributions

Recent interest in human dynamics has stimulated the investigation of the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts, such as mobile phone networks and social media. In this paper, we extend the stochastic urn-based model proposed in \cite{FENN15} so that it can generate mixture models, in particular, a mixture of exponential distributions. The model is designed to capture the dynamics of survival analysis, traditionally employed in clinical trials, reliability analysis in engineering, and more recently in the analysis of large data sets recording human dynamics. The mixture modelling approach, which is relatively simple and well understood, is very effective in capturing heterogeneity in data. We provide empirical evidence for the validity of the model, using a data set of popular search engine queries collected over a period of 114 months. We show that the survival function of these queries is closely matched by the exponential mixture solution for our model

Modeling of Environmental Effects in Genome-Wide Association Studies Identifies SLC2A2 and HP as Novel Loci Influencing Serum Cholesterol Levels

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 38 larger genetic regions affecting classical blood lipid levels without adjusting for important environmental influences. We modeled diet and physical activity in a GWAS in order to identify novel loci affecting total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and triglyceride levels. The Swedish (SE) EUROSPAN cohort (NSE = 656) was screened for candidate genes and the non-Swedish (NS) EUROSPAN cohorts (NNS = 3,282) were used for replication. In total, 3 SNPs were associated in the Swedish sample and were replicated in the non-Swedish cohorts. While SNP rs1532624 was a replication of the previously published association between CETP and HDL cholesterol, the other two were novel findings. For the latter SNPs, the p-value for association was substantially improved by inclusion of environmental covariates: SNP rs5400 (pSE,unadjusted = 3.6×10−5, pSE,adjusted = 2.2×10−6, pNS,unadjusted = 0.047) in the SLC2A2 (Glucose transporter type 2) and rs2000999 (pSE,unadjusted = 1.1×10−3, pSE,adjusted = 3.8×10−4, pNS,unadjusted = 0.035) in the HP gene (Haptoglobin-related protein precursor). Both showed evidence of association with total cholesterol. These results demonstrate that inclusion of important environmental factors in the analysis model can reveal new genetic susceptibility loci

Abatacept, Cenicriviroc, or Infliximab for Treatment of Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE: Immune dysregulation contributes to poorer outcomes in COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether abatacept, cenicriviroc, or infliximab provides benefit when added to standard care for COVID-19 pneumonia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized, double-masked, placebo-controlled clinical trial using a master protocol to investigate immunomodulators added to standard care for treatment of participants hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia. The results of 3 substudies are reported from 95 hospitals at 85 clinical research sites in the US and Latin America. Hospitalized patients 18 years or older with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within 14 days and evidence of pulmonary involvement underwent randomization between October 2020 and December 2021. INTERVENTIONS: Single infusion of abatacept (10 mg/kg; maximum dose, 1000 mg) or infliximab (5 mg/kg) or a 28-day oral course of cenicriviroc (300-mg loading dose followed by 150 mg twice per day). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was time to recovery by day 28 evaluated using an 8-point ordinal scale (higher scores indicate better health). Recovery was defined as the first day the participant scored at least 6 on the ordinal scale. RESULTS: Of the 1971 participants randomized across the 3 substudies, the mean (SD) age was 54.8 (14.6) years and 1218 (61.8%) were men. The primary end point of time to recovery from COVID-19 pneumonia was not significantly different for abatacept (recovery rate ratio [RRR], 1.12 [95% CI, 0.98-1.28]; P = .09), cenicriviroc (RRR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.86-1.18]; P = .94), or infliximab (RRR, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.99-1.28]; P = .08) compared with placebo. All-cause 28-day mortality was 11.0% for abatacept vs 15.1% for placebo (odds ratio [OR], 0.62 [95% CI, 0.41-0.94]), 13.8% for cenicriviroc vs 11.9% for placebo (OR, 1.18 [95% CI 0.72-1.94]), and 10.1% for infliximab vs 14.5% for placebo (OR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.39-0.90]). Safety outcomes were comparable between active treatment and placebo, including secondary infections, in all 3 substudies. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Time to recovery from COVID-19 pneumonia among hospitalized participants was not significantly different for abatacept, cenicriviroc, or infliximab vs placebo. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04593940

On the Performance of Geometric Chart with Estimated Control Limits

Journal of Quality Technology344448-458JQUT

Assessing and reporting heterogeneity in treatment effects in clinical trials: a proposal

Mounting evidence suggests that there is frequently considerable variation in the risk of the outcome of interest in clinical trial populations. These differences in risk will often cause clinically important heterogeneity in treatment effects (HTE) across the trial population, such that the balance between treatment risks and benefits may differ substantially between large identifiable patient subgroups; the "average" benefit observed in the summary result may even be non-representative of the treatment effect for a typical patient in the trial. Conventional subgroup analyses, which examine whether specific patient characteristics modify the effects of treatment, are usually unable to detect even large variations in treatment benefit (and harm) across risk groups because they do not account for the fact that patients have multiple characteristics simultaneously that affect the likelihood of treatment benefit. Based upon recent evidence on optimal statistical approaches to assessing HTE, we propose a framework that prioritizes the analysis and reporting of multivariate risk-based HTE and suggests that other subgroup analyses should be explicitly labeled either as primary subgroup analyses (well-motivated by prior evidence and intended to produce clinically actionable results) or secondary (exploratory) subgroup analyses (performed to inform future research). A standardized and transparent approach to HTE assessment and reporting could substantially improve clinical trial utility and interpretability