Among-site variability in the stochastic dynamics of East African coral reefs

Coral reefs are dynamic systems whose composition is highly influenced by unpredictable biotic and abiotic factors. Understanding the spatial scale at which long-term predictions of reef composition can be made will be crucial for guiding conservation efforts. Using a 22-year time series of benthic composition data from 20 reefs on the Kenyan and Tanzanian coast, we studied the long-term behaviour of Bayesian vector autoregressive state-space models for reef dynamics, incorporating among-site variability. We estimate that if there were no among-site variability, the total long-term variability would be approximately one third of its current value. Thus among-site variability contributes more to long-term variability in reef composition than does temporal variability. Individual sites are more predictable than previously thought, and predictions based on current snapshots are informative about long-term properties. Our approach allowed us to identify a subset of possible climate refugia sites with high conservation value, where the long-term probability of coral cover <= 0.1 was very low. Analytical results show that this probability is most strongly influenced by among-site variability and by interactions among benthic components within sites. These findings suggest that conservation initiatives might be successful at the site scale as well as the regional scale.Comment: 97 pages, 49 figure

Active inoculation boosts attitudinal resistance against extremist persuasion techniques: a novel approach towards the prevention of violent extremism

The Internet is gaining relevance as a platform where extremist organizations seek to recruit new members. For this preregistered study, we developed and tested a novel online game, Radicalise, which aims to combat the effectiveness of online recruitment strategies used by extremist organizations, based on the principles of active psychological inoculation. The game “inoculates” players by exposing them to severely weakened doses of the key techniques and methods used to recruit and radicalize individuals via social media platforms: identifying vulnerable individuals, gaining their trust, isolating them from their community and pressuring them into committing a criminal act in the name of the extremist organization. To test the game's effectiveness, we conducted a preregistered 2 × 2 mixed (pre–post) randomized controlled experiment (n = 291) with two outcome measures. The first measured participants’ ability and confidence in assessing the manipulativeness of fictitious WhatsApp messages making use of an extremist manipulation technique before and after playing. The second measured participants’ ability to identify what factors make an individual vulnerable to extremist recruitment using 10 profile vignettes, also before and after playing. We find that playing Radicalise significantly improves participants’ ability and confidence in spotting manipulative messages and the characteristics associated with vulnerability

Ion implantation of krypton in sputter-deposited metal matrices

Krypton 85 has been successfully stored in a metal matrix by bombarding the metal surface with krypton ions while the metal is being deposited by sputtering. The krypton is thus incorporated into the metal in concentrations approaching 200 cm/sup 3/ of Kr(STP)cm/sup 3/ of deposit. Cost estimates of a facility to perform this work are given. (GHT

Comparison of Marine Spatial Planning Methods in Madagascar Demonstrates Value of Alternative Approaches

The Government of Madagascar plans to increase marine protected area coverage by over one million hectares. To assist this process, we compare four methods for marine spatial planning of Madagascar's west coast. Input data for each method was drawn from the same variables: fishing pressure, exposure to climate change, and biodiversity (habitats, species distributions, biological richness, and biodiversity value). The first method compares visual color classifications of primary variables, the second uses binary combinations of these variables to produce a categorical classification of management actions, the third is a target-based optimization using Marxan, and the fourth is conservation ranking with Zonation. We present results from each method, and compare the latter three approaches for spatial coverage, biodiversity representation, fishing cost and persistence probability. All results included large areas in the north, central, and southern parts of western Madagascar. Achieving 30% representation targets with Marxan required twice the fish catch loss than the categorical method. The categorical classification and Zonation do not consider targets for conservation features. However, when we reduced Marxan targets to 16.3%, matching the representation level of the “strict protection” class of the categorical result, the methods show similar catch losses. The management category portfolio has complete coverage, and presents several management recommendations including strict protection. Zonation produces rapid conservation rankings across large, diverse datasets. Marxan is useful for identifying strict protected areas that meet representation targets, and minimize exposure probabilities for conservation features at low economic cost. We show that methods based on Zonation and a simple combination of variables can produce results comparable to Marxan for species representation and catch losses, demonstrating the value of comparing alternative approaches during initial stages of the planning process. Choosing an appropriate approach ultimately depends on scientific and political factors including representation targets, likelihood of adoption, and persistence goals

Towards psychological herd immunity: Cross-cultural evidence for two prebunking interventions against COVID-19 misinformation

Funder: Cabinet Office, Government of the United KingdomMisinformation about the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is a pressing societal challenge. Across two studies, one preregistered ( n1 = 1771 and n2 = 1777), we assess the efficacy of two ‘prebunking’ interventions aimed at improving people’s ability to spot manipulation techniques commonly used in COVID-19 misinformation across three different languages (English, French and German). We find that Go Viral!, a novel five-minute browser game, (a) increases the perceived manipulativeness of misinformation about COVID-19, (b) improves people’s attitudinal certainty (confidence) in their ability to spot misinformation and (c) reduces self-reported willingness to share misinformation with others. The first two effects remain significant for at least one week after gameplay. We also find that reading real-world infographics from UNESCO improves people’s ability and confidence in spotting COVID-19 misinformation (albeit with descriptively smaller effect sizes than the game). Limitations and implications for fake news interventions are discussed.</jats:p

The Interplanetary Network Supplement to the BeppoSAX Gamma-Ray Burst Catalogs

Between 1996 July and 2002 April, one or more spacecraft of the interplanetary network detected 787 cosmic gamma-ray bursts that were also detected by the Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor and/or Wide-Field X-Ray Camera experiments aboard the BeppoSAX spacecraft. During this period, the network consisted of up to six spacecraft, and using triangulation, the localizations of 475 bursts were obtained. We present the localization data for these events.Comment: 89 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Serie

Interleukin-23-Independent IL-17 Production Regulates Intestinal Epithelial Permeability

SummaryWhether interleukin-17A (IL-17A) has pathogenic and/or protective roles in the gut mucosa is controversial and few studies have analyzed specific cell populations for protective functions within the inflamed colonic tissue. Here we have provided evidence for IL-17A-dependent regulation of the tight junction protein occludin during epithelial injury that limits excessive permeability and maintains barrier integrity. Analysis of epithelial cells showed that in the absence of signaling via the IL-17 receptor adaptor protein Act-1, the protective effect of IL-17A was abrogated and inflammation was enhanced. We have demonstrated that after acute intestinal injury, IL-23R+ γδ T cells in the colonic lamina propria were the primary producers of early, gut-protective IL-17A, and this production of IL-17A was IL-23 independent, leaving protective IL-17 intact in the absence of IL-23. These results suggest that IL-17-producing γδ T cells are important for the maintenance and protection of epithelial barriers in the intestinal mucosa

IPN localizations of Konus short gamma-ray bursts

Between the launch of the \textit{GGS Wind} spacecraft in 1994 November and the end of 2010, the Konus-\textit{Wind} experiment detected 296 short-duration gamma-ray bursts (including 23 bursts which can be classified as short bursts with extended emission). During this period, the IPN consisted of up to eleven spacecraft, and using triangulation, the localizations of 271 bursts were obtained. We present the most comprehensive IPN localization data on these events. The short burst detection rate, $\sim$18 per year, exceeds that of many individual experiments.Comment: Published versio