Climate system modeling in the framework of the tolerable windows approach: The ICLIPS climate model

The computational burden associated with applications of theTolerable Windows Approach (TWA) considerably exceeds that oftraditional integrated assessments of global climate change. Aspart of the ICLIPS (Integrated Assessment of Climate ProtectionStrategies) project, a computationally efficient climate model hasbeen developed that can be included in integrated assessmentmodels of any kind. The ICLIPS climate model (ICM) is implementedin GAMS. It is driven by anthropogenic emissions of CO2,CH4, N2O, halocarbons, SF6, andSO2. Theoutput includes transient patterns of near-surface airtemperature, total column-integrated cloud cover fraction,precipitation, humidity, and global mean sea-level rise. Thecarbon cycle module explicitly treats the nonlinear sea watercarbon chemistry and the nonlinear CO2 fertilized biosphereuptake. Patterns of the impact-relevant climate variables arederived form empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis andscaled by the principal component of temperature change. Theevolution of the latter is derived from a box-model-typedifferential analogue to its impulse response function convolutionintegral. We present a description of the ICM components and someresults to demonstrate the model's applicability in the TWA setting

Contributions from economics of adaptation to decision making: an example for the autonomous community of the Basque Country

As a consequence of Climate Change sea level rise as well as a change in the intensity and propensity of rain are expected in the Basque Country. Valuing the costs and benefits of adapting to these changes becomes an important piece of information for the planning process. This paper develops two methodological frameworks. The first one devoted to estimating the economic impacts to urban areas of an increase in the risk of flooding. The values estimated for the Nervión river in the city of Amurrio (Álava) indicate that the average expected damage will increase in 15 per cent as a consequence of CC (from €56,097 to €64,451). For an extreme episode the total loss could increase to €20 million. The second framework is oriented towards the valuation of the damages as a consequence of sea level rise for 2100. The values in this case range from €87 to €231 million, that is, between €0.87 and €2.3 million per hectare

Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives

In many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands. The study introduces an inventory and ranking of adaptation options based on stakeholder analysis and expert judgement, and presents some estimates of incremental costs and benefits. The qualitative assessment focuses on ranking and prioritisation of adaptation options. Options are selected and identified and discussed by stakeholders on the basis of a sectoral approach, and assessed with respect to their importance, urgency and other characteristics by experts. The preliminary quantitative assessment identifies incremental costs and benefits of adaptation options. Priority ranking based on a weighted sum of criteria reveals that in the Netherlands integrated nature and water management and risk based policies rank high, followed by policies aiming at 'climate proof' housing and infrastructure

Challenges to adaptation: a fundamental concept for the shared socio-economic pathways and beyond

The framework for the new scenarios being developed for climate research calls for the development of a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which are meant to differ in terms of their challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. In order for the scenario process to fulfill its goals, the research and policy communities need to develop a shared understanding of these concepts. This paper focuses on challenges to adaptation. We begin by situating this new concept in the context of the rich literatures related to inter alia adaptation, vulnerability, and resilience. We argue that a proper characterization of challenges to adaptation requires a rich, exploration of the concept, which goes beyond mere description. This has a number of implications for the operationalization of the concept in the basic and extended versions of the SSPs. First, the elements comprising challenges to adaptation must include a wide range of socioeconomic and even some (non-climatic) biophysical factors. Second, careful consideration must be given to differences in these factors across scales, as well as cross-scale interactions. Third, any representation of the concept will require both quantitative and qualitative elements. The scenario framework offers the opportunity for the SSPs and full scenarios to be of greater value than has been the case in past exercises to both Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) and Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) researchers, but this will require a renegotiation of the traditional, primarily unidirectional relationship between the two communities

Evidence of nitrification associated with globally distributed pelagic jellyfish

Often considered detrimental to the environment and human activities, jellyfish blooms are increasing in several coastal regions worldwide. Yet, the overall effect of these outbreaks on ecosystem productivity and structure are not fully understood. Here we provide evidence for a so far unanticipated role of jellyfish in marine nitrogen cycling. Pelagic jellyfish release nitrogen as a metabolic waste product in form of ammonium. Yet, we observed high rates of nitrification (NH4+ → NO3−, 5.7–40.8 nM gWW−1 [wet weight] h−1) associated with the scyphomedusae Aurelia aurita, Chrysaora hysoscella, and Chrysaora pacifica and low rates of incomplete nitrification (NH4+ → NO2−, 1.0–2.8 nM gWW−1 h−1) associated with Chrysaora fulgida, C. hysoscella, and C. pacifica. These observations indicate that microbes living in association with these jellyfish thrive by oxidizing the readily available ammonia to nitrite and nitrate. The four studied species have a large geographic distribution and exhibit frequent population outbreaks. We show that, during such outbreaks, jellyfish‐associated release of nitrogen can provide more than 100% of the nitrogen required for primary production. These findings reveal a so far overlooked pathway when assessing pelagic nitrification rates that might be of particular relevance in nitrogen depleted surface waters and at high jellyfish population densities

The Role of lncRNAs TAPIR-1 and -2 as Diagnostic Markers and Potential Therapeutic Targets in Prostate Cancer

In search of new biomarkers suitable for the diagnosis and treatment of prostate cancer, genome-wide transcriptome sequencing was carried out with tissue specimens from 40 prostate cancer (PCa) and 8 benign prostate hyperplasia patients. We identified two intergenic long non-coding transcripts, located in close genomic proximity, which are highly expressed in PCa. Microarray studies on a larger cohort comprising 155 patients showed a profound diagnostic potential of these transcripts (AUC~0.94), which we designated as tumor associated prostate cancer increased lncRNA (TAPIR-1 and -2). To test their therapeutic potential, knockdown experiments with siRNA were carried out. The knockdown caused an increase in the p53/TP53 tumor suppressor protein level followed by downregulation of a large number of cell cycle- and DNA-damage repair key regulators. Furthermore, in radiation therapy resistant tumor cells, the knockdown leads to a renewed sensitization of these cells to radiation treatment. Accordingly, in a preclinical PCa xenograft model in mice, the systemic application of nanoparticles loaded with siRNA targeting TAPIR-1 significantly reduced tumor growth. These findings point to a crucial role of TAPIR-1 and -2 in PCa

Lake drying and livelihood dynamics in Lake Chad: unravelling the mechanisms, contexts and responses

This article examines lake drying and livelihood dynamics in the context of multiple stressors through a case study of the ‘‘Small Lake Chad’’ in the Republic of Chad. Livelihoods research in regions experiencing persistent lake water fluctuations has largely focused on the wellbeing and security of lakeshore dwellers. Little is known about the mechanisms through which lake drying shapes livelihood drawbacks and opportunities, and whether locally evolved responses are enhancing livelihoods. Here we address these gaps using empirical, mixed-methods field research couched within the framework of livelihoods and human well-being contexts. The analysis demonstrates that limited opportunities outside agriculture, the influx of mixed ethnic migrants and the increasing spate of violence all enhance livelihood challenges. Livelihood opportunities centre on the renewal effects of seasonal flood pulses on lake waters and the learning opportunities triggered by past droughts. Although drying has spurred new adaptive behaviours predicated on seasonality, traditional predictive factors and the availability of assets, responses have remained largely reactive. The article points to where lake drying fits amongst changes in the wider socioeconomic landscape in which people live, and suggests that awareness of the particularities of the mechanisms that connect lake drying to livelihoods can offer insights into the ways local people might be assisted by governments and development actors