Nurturing the young shoots of talent: Using action research for exploration and theory building

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in European Early Childhood Education Research Journal, 19(4), 433-450, 2011, copyright Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/1350293X.2011.623515.This paper reports the outcomes of a set of action research projects carried out by teacher researchers in 14 local education authorities in England, working collaboratively with university tutors, over a period of three years. The common aim of all the projects was to explore practical ways of nurturing the gifts and talents of children aged four–seven years. The project was funded by the Department of Education and Skills in England as part of the government's gifted and talented programme. The project teachers felt that their understanding of issues relating to nurturing the gifts and talents of younger children was enhanced through their engagement in the project. It was possible to map the findings of the projects to the English government's National Quality Standards for gifted and talented education which include: (1) identification; (2) effective provision in the classroom; (3) enabling curriculum entitlement and choice; (4) assessment for learning; (5) engaging with community, families and beyond. The findings are also analysed within the framework of good practice in educating children in the first years of schooling. Participating practitioners felt that action research offered them a suitable methodology to explore the complexity of the topic of giftedness through cycles of planning, action and reflection and personal theory building

Fluctuating selection models and Mcdonald-Kreitman type analyses

It is likely that the strength of selection acting upon a mutation varies through time due to changes in the environment. However, most population genetic theory assumes that the strength of selection remains constant. Here we investigate the consequences of fluctuating selection pressures on the quantification of adaptive evolution using McDonald-Kreitman (MK) style approaches. In agreement with previous work, we show that fluctuating selection can generate evidence of adaptive evolution even when the expected strength of selection on a mutation is zero. However, we also find that the mutations, which contribute to both polymorphism and divergence tend, on average, to be positively selected during their lifetime, under fluctuating selection models. This is because mutations that fluctuate, by chance, to positive selected values, tend to reach higher frequencies in the population than those that fluctuate towards negative values. Hence the evidence of positive adaptive evolution detected under a fluctuating selection model by MK type approaches is genuine since fixed mutations tend to be advantageous on average during their lifetime. Never-the-less we show that methods tend to underestimate the rate of adaptive evolution when selection fluctuates

Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study [version 2; peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Background: Diagnostic testing forms a major part of the UK’s response to the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with tests offered to anyone with a continuous cough, high temperature or anosmia. Testing capacity must be sufficient during the winter respiratory season when levels of cough and fever are high due to non-COVID-19 causes. This study aims to make predictions about the contribution of baseline cough or fever to future testing demand in the UK. / Methods: In this analysis of the Bug Watch community cohort study, we estimated the incidence of cough or fever in England in 2018-2019. We then estimated the COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates required in the UK for baseline cough or fever cases for the period July 2020-June 2021. This was explored for different rates of the population requesting tests, four COVID-19 second wave scenarios and high and low baseline cough or fever incidence scenarios. / Results: Under the high baseline cough or fever scenario, incidence in the UK is expected to rise rapidly from 250,708 (95%CI 181,095 - 347,080) cases per day in September to a peak of 444,660 (95%CI 353,084 - 559,988) in December. If 80% of these cases request tests, testing demand would exceed 1.4 million tests per week for five consecutive months. Demand was significantly lower in the low cough or fever incidence scenario, with 129,115 (95%CI 111,596 - 151,679) tests per day in January 2021, compared to 340,921 (95%CI 276,039 - 424,491) tests per day in the higher incidence scenario. / Conclusions: Our results show that national COVID-19 testing demand is highly dependent on background cough or fever incidence. This study highlights that the UK’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic must ensure that a high proportion of people with symptoms request tests, and that testing capacity is sufficient to meet the high predicted demand

Evidence for Pervasive Adaptive Protein Evolution in Wild Mice

The relative contributions of neutral and adaptive substitutions to molecular evolution has been one of the most controversial issues in evolutionary biology for more than 40 years. The analysis of within-species nucleotide polymorphism and between-species divergence data supports a widespread role for adaptive protein evolution in certain taxa. For example, estimates of the proportion of adaptive amino acid substitutions (alpha) are 50% or more in enteric bacteria and Drosophila. In contrast, recent estimates of alpha for hominids have been at most 13%. Here, we estimate alpha for protein sequences of murid rodents based on nucleotide polymorphism data from multiple genes in a population of the house mouse subspecies Mus musculus castaneus, which inhabits the ancestral range of the Mus species complex and nucleotide divergence between M. m. castaneus and M. famulus or the rat. We estimate that 57% of amino acid substitutions in murids have been driven by positive selection. Hominids, therefore, are exceptional in having low apparent levels of adaptive protein evolution. The high frequency of adaptive amino acid substitutions in wild mice is consistent with their large effective population size, leading to effective natural selection at the molecular level. Effective natural selection also manifests itself as a paucity of effectively neutral nonsynonymous mutations in M. m. castaneus compared to humans

The role of mutation rate variation and genetic diversity in the architecture of human disease

Background We have investigated the role that the mutation rate and the structure of genetic variation at a locus play in determining whether a gene is involved in disease. We predict that the mutation rate and its genetic diversity should be higher in genes associated with disease, unless all genes that could cause disease have already been identified. Results Consistent with our predictions we find that genes associated with Mendelian and complex disease are substantially longer than non-disease genes. However, we find that both Mendelian and complex disease genes are found in regions of the genome with relatively low mutation rates, as inferred from intron divergence between humans and chimpanzees, and they are predicted to have similar rates of non-synonymous mutation as other genes. Finally, we find that disease genes are in regions of significantly elevated genetic diversity, even when variation in the rate of mutation is controlled for. The effect is small nevertheless. Conclusions Our results suggest that gene length contributes to whether a gene is associated with disease. However, the mutation rate and the genetic architecture of the locus appear to play only a minor role in determining whether a gene is associated with disease

Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Background: Diagnostic testing forms a major part of the UK’s response to the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with tests offered to anyone with a continuous cough, high temperature or anosmia. Testing capacity must be sufficient during the winter respiratory season when levels of cough and fever are high due to non-COVID-19 causes. This study aims to make predictions about the contribution of baseline cough or fever to future testing demand in the UK. Methods: In this analysis of the Bug Watch prospective community cohort study, we estimated the incidence of cough or fever in England in 2018-2019. We then estimated the COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates required in the UK for baseline cough or fever cases for the period July 2020-June 2021. This was explored for different rates of the population requesting tests and four COVID-19 second wave scenarios. Estimates were then compared to current national capacity. Results: The baseline incidence of cough or fever in the UK is expected to rise rapidly from 154,554 (95%CI 103,083 - 231,725) cases per day in August 2020 to 250,708 (95%CI 181,095 - 347,080) in September, peaking at 444,660 (95%CI 353,084 - 559,988) in December. If 80% of baseline cough or fever cases request tests, average daily UK testing demand would exceed current capacity for five consecutive months (October 2020 to February 2021), with a peak demand of 147,240 (95%CI 73,978 - 239,502) tests per day above capacity in December 2020. Conclusions: Our results show that current national COVID-19 testing capacity is likely to be exceeded by demand due to baseline cough and fever alone. This study highlights that the UK’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic must ensure that a high proportion of people with symptoms request tests, and that testing capacity is immediately scaled up to meet this high predicted demand

The Tidal Tails of 47 Tucanae

The Galactic globular cluster 47 Tucanae (47 Tuc) shows a rare increase in its velocity dispersion profile at large radii, indicative of energetic, yet bound, stars at large radii dominating the velocity dispersion and, potentially, of ongoing evaporation. Escaping stars will form tidal tails, as seen with several Galactic globular clusters, however, the tidal tails of 47 Tuc are yet to be uncovered. We model these tails of 47 Tuc using the most accurate input data available, with the specific aim of determining their locations, as well as the densities of the epicyclic overdensities within the tails. The overdensities from our models show an increase of 3-4% above the Galactic background and, therefore, should be easily detectable using matched filtering techniques. We find that the most influential parameter with regard to both the locations and densities of the epicyclic overdensities is the Heliocentric distance to the cluster. Hence, uncovering these tidal features observationally will contribute greatly to the ongoing problem of determining the distance to 47 Tuc, tightly constraining the distance of the cluster independent of other methods. Using our streakline method for determining the locations of the tidal tails and their overdensities, we show how, in principle, the shape and extent of the tidal tails of any Galactic globular cluster can be determined without resorting to computationally expensive N-body simulations.Comment: Original paper has 10 pages, 10 figures and 2 tables. Please note that this now includes an erratum. Erratum has 6 pages, 8 figures and 2 tables. Ignore the exclamation marks in Section 2 of the erratum, these are an artifact of the LaTeX class file used to produce the manuscrip

PAin SoluTions In the Emergency Setting (PASTIES)--patient controlled analgesia versus routine care in emergency department patients with non-traumatic abdominal pain: randomised trial

© Smith et al 2015. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether patient controlled analgesia (PCA) is better than routine care in providing effective analgesia for patients presenting to emergency departments with moderate to severe non-traumatic abdominal pain.DESIGN: Pragmatic, multicentre, parallel group, randomised controlled trialSETTING: Five English hospitals.PARTICIPANTS: 200 adults (66% (n=130) female), aged 18 to 75 years, who presented to the emergency department requiring intravenous opioid analgesia for the treatment of moderate to severe non-traumatic abdominal pain and were expected to be admitted to hospital for at least 12 hours.INTERVENTIONS: Patient controlled analgesia or nurse titrated analgesia (treatment as usual).MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was total pain experienced over the 12 hour study period, derived by standardised area under the curve (scaled from 0 to 100) of each participant's hourly pain scores, captured using a visual analogue scale. Pre-specified secondary outcomes included total morphine use, percentage of study period in moderate or severe pain, percentage of study period asleep, length of hospital stay, and satisfaction with pain management.RESULTS: 196 participants were included in the primary analyses (99 allocated to PCA and 97 to treatment as usual). Mean total pain experienced was 35.3 (SD 25.8) in the PCA group compared with 47.3 (24.7) in the treatment as usual group. The adjusted between group difference was 6.3 (95% confidence interval 0.7 to 11.9). Participants in the PCA group received significantly more morphine (mean 36.1 (SD 22.4) v 23.6 (13.1) mg; mean difference 12.3 (95% confidence interval 7.2 to 17.4) mg), spent less of the study period in moderate or severe pain (32.6% v 46.9%; mean difference 14.5% (5.6% to 23.5%)), and were more likely to be perfectly or very satisfied with the management of their pain (83% (73/88) v 66% (57/87); adjusted odds ratio 2.56 (1.25 to 5.23)) in comparison with participants in the treatment as usual group.CONCLUSIONS: Significant reductions in pain can be achieved by PCA compared with treatment as usual in patients presenting to the emergency department with non-traumatic abdominal pain. Trial registration European Clinical Trials Database EudraCT2011-000194-31; Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN25343280

Development of clinically relevant in vivo metastasis models using human bone discs and breast cancer patient-derived xenografts

Background Late-stage breast cancer preferentially metastasises to bone; despite advances in targeted therapies, this condition remains incurable. The lack of clinically relevant models for studying breast cancer metastasis to a human bone microenvironment has stunted the development of effective treatments for this condition. To address this problem, we have developed humanised mouse models in which breast cancer patient-derived xenografts (PDXs) metastasise to human bone implants with low variability and high frequency. Methods To model the human bone environment, bone discs from femoral heads of patients undergoing hip replacement surgery were implanted subcutaneously into NOD/SCID mice. For metastasis studies, 7 patient-derived xenograft tumours (PDX: BB3RC32, ER+ PR+ HER2−; BB2RC08, ER+ PR+ ER2−; BB6RC37, ER− PR− HER2− and BB6RC39, ER+ PR+ HER2+), MDA-MB-231-luc2, T47D-luc2 or MCF7-Luc2 cells were injected into the 4th mammary ducts and metastases monitored by luciferase imaging and confirmed on histological sections. Bone integrity, viability and vascularisation were assessed by uCT, calcein uptake and histomorphometry. Expression profiling of genes/proteins during different stages of metastasis were assessed by whole genome Affymetrix array, real-time PCR and immunohistochemistry. Importance of IL-1 was confirmed following anakinra treatment. Results Implantation of femoral bone provided a metabolically active, human-specific site for tumour cells to metastasise to. After 4 weeks, bone implants were re-vascularised and demonstrated active bone remodelling (as evidenced by the presence of osteoclasts, osteoblasts and calcein uptake). Restricting bone implants to the use of subchondral bone and introduction of cancer cells via intraductal injection maximised metastasis to human bone implants. MDA-MB-231 cells specifically metastasised to human bone (70% metastases) whereas T47D, MCF7, BB3RC32, BB2RC08, and BB6RC37 cells metastasised to both human bone and mouse bones. Importantly, human bone was the preferred metastatic site especially from ER+ PDX (100% metastasis human bone compared with 20–75% to mouse bone), whereas ER-ve PDX developed metastases in 20% of human and 20% of mouse bone. Breast cancer cells underwent a series of molecular changes as they progressed from primary tumours to bone metastasis including altered expression of IL-1B, IL-1R1, S100A4, CTSK, SPP1 and RANK. Inhibiting IL-1B signalling significantly reduced bone metastasis. Conclusions Our reliable and clinically relevant humanised mouse models provide significant advancements in modelling of breast cancer bone metastasis