Transboundary Water: Improving Methodologies and Developing Integrated Tools to Support Water Security

River basins for which transboundary coordination and governance is a factor are of concern to US national security, yet there is often a lack of sufficient data-driven information available at the needed time horizons to inform transboundary water decision-making for the intelligence, defense, and foreign policy communities. To address this need, a two-day workshop entitled Transboundary Water: Improving Methodologies and Developing Integrated Tools to Support Global Water Security was held in August 2017 in Maryland. The committee that organized and convened the workshop (the Organizing Committee) included representatives from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the US Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), and the US Air Force. The primary goal of the workshop was to advance knowledge on the current US Government and partners' technical information needs and gaps to support national security interests in relation to transboundary water. The workshop also aimed to identify avenues for greater communication and collaboration among the scientific, intelligence, defense, and foreign policy communities. The discussion around transboundary water was considered in the context of the greater global water challenges facing US national security

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction

Component analysis of errors in satellite-based precipitation estimates

Satellite-based precipitation estimates have great potential for a wide range of critical applications, but their error characteristics need to be examined and understood. In this study, six (6) high-resolution, satellite-based precipitation data sets are evaluated over the contiguous United States against a gauge-based product. An error decomposition scheme is devised to separate the errors into three independent components, hit bias, missed precipitation, and false precipitation, to better track the error sources associated with the satellite retrieval processes. Our analysis reveals the following. (1) The three components for each product are all substantial, with large spatial and temporal variations. (2) The amplitude of individual components sometimes is larger than that of the total errors. In such cases, the smaller total errors are resulting from the three components canceling one another. (3) All the products detected strong precipitation (\u3e40 mm/d) well, but with various biases. They tend to overestimate in summer and underestimate in winter, by as much as 50% in either season, and they all miss a significant amount of light precipitation (\u3c10 mm/d), up to 40%. (4) Hit bias and missed precipitation are the two leading error sources. In summer, positive hit bias, up to 50%, dominates the total errors for most products. (5) In winter, missed precipitation over mountainous regions and the northeast, presumably snowfall, poses a common challenge to all the data sets. On the basis of the findings, we recommend that future efforts focus on reducing hit bias, adding snowfall retrievals, and improving methods for combining gauge and satellite data. Strategies for future studies to establish better links between the errors in the end products and the upstream data sources are also proposed

A Blended Global Snow Product using Visible, Passive Microwave and Scatterometer Satellite Data

A joint U.S. Air Force/NASA blended, global snow product that utilizes Earth Observation System (EOS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) and QuikSCAT (Quick Scatterometer) (QSCAT) data has been developed. Existing snow products derived from these sensors have been blended into a single, global, daily, user-friendly product by employing a newly-developed Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)/National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Snow Algorithm (ANSA). This initial blended-snow product uses minimal modeling to expeditiously yield improved snow products, which include snow cover extent, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent (SWE), onset of snowmelt, and identification of actively melting snow cover. The blended snow products are currently 25-km resolution. These products are validated with data from the lower Great Lakes region of the U.S., from Colorado during the Cold Lands Processes Experiment (CLPX), and from Finland. The AMSR-E product is especially useful in detecting snow through clouds; however, passive microwave data miss snow in those regions where the snow cover is thin, along the margins of the continental snowline, and on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains, for instance. In these regions, the MODIS product can map shallow snow cover under cloud-free conditions. The confidence for mapping snow cover extent is greater with the MODIS product than with the microwave product when cloud-free MODIS observations are available. Therefore, the MODIS product is used as the default for detecting snow cover. The passive microwave product is used as the default only in those areas where MODIS data are not applicable due to the presence of clouds and darkness. The AMSR-E snow product is used in association with the difference between ascending and descending satellite passes or Diurnal Amplitude Variations (DAV) to detect the onset of melt, and a QSCAT product will be used to map areas of snow that are actively melting

Data Assimilation Enhancements to Air Force Weathers Land Information System

The United States Air Force (USAF) has a proud and storied tradition of enabling significant advancements in the area of characterizing and modeling land state information. 557th Weather Wing (557 WW; DoDs Executive Agent for Land Information) provides routine geospatial intelligence information to warfighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, government and intelligence community. 557 WW and its predecessors have been home to the DoDs only operational regional and global land data analysis systems since January 1958. As a trusted partner since 2005, Air Force Weather (AFW) has relied on the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA/GSFC to lead the interagency scientific collaboration known as the Land Information System (LIS). LIS is an advanced software framework for high performance land surface modeling and data assimilation of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) information

R.: A land surface data assimilation framework using the land information system: description and applications

Abstract The Land Information System (LIS) is an established land surface modeling framework that integrates various community land surface models, ground measurements, satellite-based observations, high performance computing and data management tools. The use of advanced software engineering principles in LIS allows interoperability of individual system components and thus enables assessment and prediction of hydrologic conditions at various spatial and temporal scales. In this work, we describe a sequential data assimilation extension of LIS that incorporates multiple observational sources, land surface models and assimilation algorithms. These capabilities are demonstrated here in a suite of experiments that use the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and assimilation through direct insertion. In a soil moisture experiment, we discuss the impact of differences in modeling approaches on assimilation performance. Provided careful choice of model error parameters, we find that two entirely different hydrological modeling approaches offer comparable assimilation results. In a snow assimilation experiment, we investigate the relative merits of assimilating different types of observations (snow cover area and snow water equivalent). The experiments show that data assimilation enhancements in LIS are uniquely suited to compare the assimilation of various data types into different land surface models within a single framework. The high performance infrastructure provides adequate support for efficient data assimilation integrations of high computational granularity