The Effect of Recency to Human Mobility

In recent years, we have seen scientists attempt to model and explain human dynamics and, in particular, human movement. Many aspects of our complex life are affected by human movements such as disease spread and epidemics modeling, city planning, wireless network development, and disaster relief, to name a few. Given the myriad of applications it is clear that a complete understanding of how people move in space can lead to huge benefits to our society. In most of the recent works, scientists have focused on the idea that people movements are biased towards frequently-visited locations. According to them, human movement is based on an exploration/exploitation dichotomy in which individuals choose new locations (exploration) or return to frequently-visited locations (exploitation). In this work, we focus on the concept of recency. We propose a model in which exploitation in human movement also considers recently-visited locations and not solely frequently-visited locations. We test our hypothesis against different empirical data of human mobility and show that our proposed model is able to better explain the human trajectories in these datasets

New numerical procedure for the prediction of temperature development in early age concrete structures

A new numerical model for the prediction of temperature development in young concrete structures is briefly presented. With the pre-program. adiabatic hydration curves, which are used to determine the internal heat generation, are calculated. An artificial neural networks approach is used for this purpose. Adiabatic hydration curves, which were included in the learning set, were determined by our own experiments, using the adiabatic calorimeter which uses air as the coupling media. The main program is implemented in the finite element code. This program allows concrete structure designers and contractors to quantify and evaluate the effects of some concrete initial parameters on the adiabatic hydration curves and corresponding temperature development at an arbitrary point in the concrete element. Some examples are also presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserve

Contrasting social and non-social sources of predictability in human mobility

Social structures influence human behavior, including their movement patterns. Indeed, latent information about an individual’s movement can be present in the mobility patterns of both acquaintances and strangers. We develop a “colocation” network to distinguish the mobility patterns of an ego’s social ties from those not socially connected to the ego but who arrive at a location at a similar time as the ego. Using entropic measures, we analyze and bound the predictive information of an individual’s mobility pattern and its flow to both types of ties. While the former generically provide more information, replacing up to 94% of an ego’s predictability, significant information is also present in the aggregation of unknown colocators, that contain up to 85% of an ego’s predictive information. Such information flow raises privacy concerns: individuals sharing data via mobile applications may be providing actionable information on themselves as well as others whose data are absent

Overview of Hydrological Dynamics and Geomorphological Aspects of the Amazon Region Rivers to Characterize Fluvial Sensitivity to Oil Spills

This chapter presents a collection of studies performed in the Amazon region that includes thematic products portraying its fluvial sensitivity to oil spills. The research addresses the intense Amazonian seasonal dynamics, as well as the environmental peculiarities of this singular ecosystem. Periodic changes caused by natural phenomena have a significant impact on not only flooded alluvial plains and riverine habitats but also on petroleum exploration, production, and transportation activities. Therefore, the implementation of tools to assess the potential impact of oil spills in the Amazonian rivers must be adjusted to the local conditions. The main deliverables of the research are (1) fluvial oil spill sensitivity index maps contemplating each phase of the hydrological cycle (low water, high water, receding water, and rising water), (2) a computational method to represent fluctuations of the seasonal inundation, and (3) a risk analysis method using linguistic rules for the construction of a risk matrix

Probabilistic and Fuzzy Arithmetic Approaches for the Treatment of Uncertainties in the Installation of Torpedo Piles

The “torpedo” pile is a foundation system that has been recently considered to anchor mooring lines and risers of floating production systems for offshore oil exploitation. The pile is installed in a free fall operation from a vessel. However, the soil parameters involved in the penetration model of the torpedo pile contain uncertainties that can affect the precision of analysis methods to evaluate its final penetration depth. Therefore, this paper deals with methodologies for the assessment of the sensitivity of the response to the variation of the uncertain parameters and mainly to incorporate into the analysis method techniques for the formal treatment of the uncertainties. Probabilistic and “possibilistic” approaches are considered, involving, respectively, the Monte Carlo method (MC) and concepts of fuzzy arithmetic (FA). The results and performance of both approaches are compared, stressing the ability of the latter approach to efficiently deal with the uncertainties of the model, with outstanding computational efficiency, and therefore, to comprise an effective design tool

Survey on Neuro-Fuzzy systems and their applications in technical diagnostics and measurement

Both fuzzy logic, as the basis of many inference systems, and Neural Networks, as a powerful computational model for classification and estimation, have been used in many application fields since their birth. These two techniques are somewhat supplementary to each other in a way that what one is lacking of the other can provide. This led to the creation of Neuro-Fuzzy systems which utilize fuzzy logic to construct a complex model by extending the capabilities of Artificial Neural Networks. Generally speaking all type of systems that integrate these two techniques can be called Neuro-Fuzzy systems. Key feature of these systems is that they use input-output patterns to adjust the fuzzy sets and rules inside the model. The paper reviews the principles of a Neuro-Fuzzy system and the key methods presented in this field, furthermore provides survey on their applications for technical diagnostics and measurement. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd