Quantifying model uncertainty to improve watershed-level ecosystem service quantification: a global sensitivity analysis of the RUSLE

Ecosystem service-support tools are commonly used to guide natural resource management. Often, empirically based models are preferred due to low data requirements, simplicity and clarity. Yet, uncertainty produced by local context or parameter estimation remains poorly quantified and documented. We assessed model uncertainty of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation – RUSLE developed mainly from US data. RUSLE is the most commonly applied model to assess watershed-level soil loss. We performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on RUSLE with four dissimilar datasets to understand uncertainty and to provide recommendations for data collection and model parameterization. The datasets cover varying spatial levels (plot, watershed and continental) and environmental conditions (temperate and tropical). We found cover management and topography create the most uncertainty regardless of environmental conditions or data parameterization techniques. The importance of other RUSLE factors varies across contexts. We argue that model uncertainty could be reduced through better parameterization of cover management and topography factors while avoiding severe soil losses by targeting soil conservation practices in areas where both factors interact and enhance soil loss. We recommend incorporating GSA to assess empirical models’ uncertainty, to guide model parameterization and to target soil conservation efforts

Exploring the relationship between plural values of nature, human well‐being, and conservation and development intervention: Why it matters and how to do it?

Globally, land and seascapes across the bioculturally diverse tropics are in transition. Impacted by the demands of distant consumers, the processes of global environmental change and numerous interventions seeking climate, conservation and development goals, these transitions have the potential to impact the relationships and plurality of values held between people and place. This paper is a Synthesis of seven empirical studies within the Special Feature (SF): ‘What is lost in transition? Capturing the impacts of conservation and development interventions on relational values and human wellbeing in the tropics’. Through two Open Forum workshops, and critical review, contributing authors explored emergent properties across the papers of the SF. Six core themes were identified and are subsumed within broad categories of: (i) the problem of reconciling scale and complexity, (ii) key challenges to be overcome for more plural understanding of social dimensions of landscape change and (iii) ways forward: the potential of an environmental justice framework, and a practical overview of methods available to do so. The Synthesis interprets disparate fields and complex academic work on relational values, human well-being and de-colonial approaches in impact appraisal. It offers a practical and actionable catalogue of methods for plural valuation in the field, and reflects on their combinations, strengths and weaknesses. The research contribution is policy relevant because it builds the case for why a more plural approach in intervention design and evaluation is essential for achieving more just and sustainable futures, and highlights some of the key actions points deemed necessary to achieve such a transition to conventional practice

CGIAR modeling approaches for resource constrained scenarios: IV Models for analyzing socio‐economic factors to improve policy recommendations

International crop-related research as conducted by the CGIAR uses crop modelingfor a variety of purposes. By linking crop models with economic models andapproaches, crop model outputs can be effectively used as inputs into socioeco-nomic modeling efforts for priority setting and policy advice using ex-ante impactassessment of technologies and scenario analysis. This requires interdisciplinarycollaboration and very often collaboration across a variety of research organizations.This study highlights the key topics, purposes, and approaches of socioeconomicanalysis within the CGIAR related to cropping systems. Although each CGIARcenter has a different mission, all CGIAR centers share a common strategy of strivingtoward a world free of hunger, poverty, and environmental degradation. This meansresearch is mostly focused toward resource-constrained smallholder farmers. Thereview covers global modeling efforts using the IMPACT model to farm householdbio-economic models for assessing the potential impact of new technologies onfarming systems and livelihoods. Although the CGIAR addresses all aspects of foodsystems, the focus of this review is on crop commodities and the economic analysislinked to crop-growth model results. This study, while not a comprehensive review,provides insights into the richness of the socioeconomic modeling endeavors withinthe CGIAR. The study highlights the need for interdisciplinary approaches to addressthe challenges this type of modeling faces

Biodiversity and agriculture: rapid evidence review

Agriculture is the largest single source of environmental degradation, responsible for over 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 70% of freshwater use and 80% of land conversion: it is the single largest driver of biodiversity loss (Foley et al. 2011, 2005; IPBES 2019; Willett et al. 2019). Agriculture also underpins poor human health, contributing to 11 million premature deaths annually. While too many still struggle from acute hunger, a growing number of individuals, including in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), struggle to access healthy foods. Greater consideration for, and integration of, biodiversity in agriculture is a key solution space for improving health, eliminating hunger and achieving nature-positive development objectives. This rapid evidence review documents the best available evidence of agriculture’s relationships with biodiversity, drawing on the contributions of leading biodiversity experts, and recommends actions that can be taken to move towards more biodiversity/nature-positive production through the delivery of integrated agricultural solutions on climate, biodiversity, nutrition and livelihoods. The analysis, which takes a whole-of-food-system approach, brings together a large body of evidence. It accounts for aspects not typically captured in a stand-alone primary piece of research, and indicates where there are critical gaps

Visceral and subcutaneous fat have different origins and evidence supports a mesothelial source

International audience: Fuelled by the obesity epidemic, there is considerable interest in the developmental origins of white adipose tissue (WAT) and the stem and progenitor cells from which it arises. Whereas increased visceral fat mass is associated with metabolic dysfunction, increased subcutaneous WAT is protective. There are six visceral fat depots: perirenal, gonadal, epicardial, retroperitoneal, omental and mesenteric, and it is a subject of much debate whether these have a common developmental origin and whether this differs from that for subcutaneous WAT. Here we show that all six visceral WAT depots receive a significant contribution from cells expressing Wt1 late in gestation. Conversely, no subcutaneous WAT or brown adipose tissue arises from Wt1-expressing cells. Postnatally, a subset of visceral WAT continues to arise from Wt1-expressing cells, consistent with the finding that Wt1 marks a proportion of cell populations enriched in WAT progenitors. We show that all visceral fat depots have a mesothelial layer like the visceral organs with which they are associated, and provide several lines of evidence that Wt1-expressing mesothelium can produce adipocytes. These results reveal a major ontogenetic difference between visceral and subcutaneous WAT, and pinpoint the lateral plate mesoderm as a major source of visceral WAT. They also support the notion that visceral WAT progenitors are heterogeneous, and suggest that mesothelium is a source of adipocytes

Local and Landscape Factors Determining Occurrence of Phyllostomid Bats in Tropical Secondary Forests

Neotropical forests are being increasingly replaced by a mosaic of patches of different successional stages, agricultural fields and pasture lands. Consequently, the identification of factors shaping the performance of taxa in anthropogenic landscapes is gaining importance, especially for taxa playing critical roles in ecosystem functioning. As phyllostomid bats provide important ecological services through seed dispersal, pollination and control of animal populations, in this study we assessed the relationships between phyllostomid occurrence and the variation in local and landscape level habitat attributes caused by disturbance. We mist-netted phyllostomids in 12 sites representing 4 successional stages of a tropical dry forest (initial, early, intermediate and late). We also quantitatively characterized the habitat attributes at the local (vegetation structure complexity) and the landscape level (forest cover, area and diversity of patches). Two focal scales were considered for landscape characterization: 500 and 1000 m. During 142 sampling nights, we captured 606 individuals representing 15 species and 4 broad guilds. Variation in phyllostomid assemblages, ensembles and populations was associated with variation in local and landscape habitat attributes, and this association was scale-dependent. Specifically, we found a marked guild-specific response, where the abundance of nectarivores tended to be negatively associated with the mean area of dry forest patches, while the abundance of frugivores was positively associated with the percentage of riparian forest. These results are explained by the prevalence of chiropterophilic species in the dry forest and of chiropterochorous species in the riparian forest. Our results indicate that different vegetation classes, as well as a multi-spatial scale approach must be considered for evaluating bat response to variation in landscape attributes. Moreover, for the long-term conservation of phyllostomids in anthropogenic landscapes, we must realize that the management of the habitat at the landscape level is as important as the conservation of particular forest fragments

Evolution of the use of corticosteroids for the treatment of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Spain between March and November 2020: SEMI-COVID national registry

Objectives: Since the results of the RECOVERY trial, WHO recommendations about the use of corticosteroids (CTs) in COVID-19 have changed. The aim of the study is to analyse the evolutive use of CTs in Spain during the pandemic to assess the potential influence of new recommendations. Material and methods: A retrospective, descriptive, and observational study was conducted on adults hospitalised due to COVID-19 in Spain who were included in the SEMI-COVID- 19 Registry from March to November 2020. Results: CTs were used in 6053 (36.21%) of the included patients. The patients were older (mean (SD)) (69.6 (14.6) vs. 66.0 (16.8) years; p < 0.001), with hypertension (57.0% vs. 47.7%; p < 0.001), obesity (26.4% vs. 19.3%; p < 0.0001), and multimorbidity prevalence (20.6% vs. 16.1%; p < 0.001). These patients had higher values (mean (95% CI)) of C-reactive protein (CRP) (86 (32.7-160) vs. 49.3 (16-109) mg/dL; p < 0.001), ferritin (791 (393-1534) vs. 470 (236- 996) µg/dL; p < 0.001), D dimer (750 (430-1400) vs. 617 (345-1180) µg/dL; p < 0.001), and lower Sp02/Fi02 (266 (91.1) vs. 301 (101); p < 0.001). Since June 2020, there was an increment in the use of CTs (March vs. September; p < 0.001). Overall, 20% did not receive steroids, and 40% received less than 200 mg accumulated prednisone equivalent dose (APED). Severe patients are treated with higher doses. The mortality benefit was observed in patients with oxygen saturation </=90%. Conclusions: Patients with greater comorbidity, severity, and inflammatory markers were those treated with CTs. In severe patients, there is a trend towards the use of higher doses. The mortality benefit was observed in patients with oxygen saturation </=90%

CIBERER : Spanish national network for research on rare diseases: A highly productive collaborative initiative

Altres ajuts: Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII); Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación.CIBER (Center for Biomedical Network Research; Centro de Investigación Biomédica En Red) is a public national consortium created in 2006 under the umbrella of the Spanish National Institute of Health Carlos III (ISCIII). This innovative research structure comprises 11 different specific areas dedicated to the main public health priorities in the National Health System. CIBERER, the thematic area of CIBER focused on rare diseases (RDs) currently consists of 75 research groups belonging to universities, research centers, and hospitals of the entire country. CIBERER's mission is to be a center prioritizing and favoring collaboration and cooperation between biomedical and clinical research groups, with special emphasis on the aspects of genetic, molecular, biochemical, and cellular research of RDs. This research is the basis for providing new tools for the diagnosis and therapy of low-prevalence diseases, in line with the International Rare Diseases Research Consortium (IRDiRC) objectives, thus favoring translational research between the scientific environment of the laboratory and the clinical setting of health centers. In this article, we intend to review CIBERER's 15-year journey and summarize the main results obtained in terms of internationalization, scientific production, contributions toward the discovery of new therapies and novel genes associated to diseases, cooperation with patients' associations and many other topics related to RD research

Identifying ecosystem services priorities areas for targeting payments schemes (PES), Costa Rica

Tesis (M. Sc) -- CATIE, Turrialba (Costa Rica),2009En el presente trabajo se modelaron los puntos calientes para: a) conservaci?n y conectividad de la biodiversidad y b) control de la erosi?n, en el Corredor Biol?gico Volc?nica Central Talamanca (CVBCT) en Costa Rica, para direccionar los PSE a las fincas donde la oferta de esos SE se necesita cr?ticamente. Para identificar los puntos calientes de conservaci?n se usaron modelos de conectividad funcional para tres especies de aves encontradas en el corredor (scarlet rumped tanager, yellow warbler and the ochrebellied flycatcher) identificando vacios cr?ticos de h?bitats para cada una de esas especies. Para la erosi?n, se uso la Ecuaci?n Universal de P?rdida de Suelo Revisada (EUPSR) para identificar las ?reas que dentro del corredor tienen una erosi?n potencial mayor. Finalmente, se calcul? el valor de cada servicio provisto por los Sistemas Agroforestales de Caf?. Para que los esquemas de PSE contin?en siendo exitosos, deben demostrar que el servicio por el que se est? pagando es el ?rea donde realmente se est? ofreciendo. Con el presente trabajo se demostr? que una priorizaci?n espacial con la modelaci?n del la oferta de los SE es el primer paso para identificar donde esos SE son m?s necesarios, es decir, donde las intervenciones agroforestales tendr?n un mayor impacto y donde los pagos deben ser hechos. We model conservation and erosion hotspots in the Volcan Central Talamanca Biological Corridor to target PES schemes on farMON where the services are critically needed. To identify the conservation hotspots we used models of functional connectivity for three species of bird found in the corridor (scarlet rumped tanager, yellow warbler and the ochre-bellied flycatcher) identifying critical gaps in the corridor for each of these species. For erosion, we used the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to identify areas within the corridor where potential erosion is greatest. Finally, we calculated the value of each service provided by multistrata coffee agroforests. In order for PES schemes to continue to de successful, they must demonstrate that the service being paid for, is actually being provided. We demonstrate that spatially explicit modeling of the provisioning of such services is the first step in identifying where these services are most critically needed, where agroforestry interventions will have the greatest impact, and where payments should be made

Managing the farmscape for connectivity increases conservation value for tropical forest-dependent birds

We assessed species mobility for five neotropical bird species with distinct life history characteristics representing an affinity gradient for forest habitat. We used seven years of mist-netting data for estimating species habitat affinity and for predicting species mobility using the Circuitscape model across a 4,371 ha farmscape in Costa Rica. Circuitscape allowed us to estimate changes in movement probability, relative changes in resistance that species experience during dispersal (measured as resistance distance and passage area through which species can move) under four farmscape management scenarios. The four land-use scenarios included: (a) the 2011 farmscape land-use composition and configuration, b) converting all existing live fences to post-and-wire fence lines in the farm (c) converting simplified coffee agroforests to multistrata coffee agroforests in the farm, and d) placing multistrata live fences around the perimeter of evey parcel and roads in the farm. The dataset include the digitized land uses using a 2010 GeoEye image with a 0.46 m resolution at 1:1500 m scale. We ground-truthed the farmscape in August-September 2011 to validate the digitized land use map, and constructed four alternative management scenarios to estimate the impacts of on-farm practices on species mobility