Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis

Q1Q1Background The unprecedented public health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. Methods and Findings develop a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care to explore the potential public-health impact of a range of different potential therapeutics, under a range of different scenarios varying: i) healthcare capacity, ii) epidemic trajectories; and iii) drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. In each case, the outcome of interest was the number of COVID-19 deaths averted in scenarios with the therapeutic compared to scenarios without. We find the impact of drugs like dexamethasone (which are delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in highincome countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R=1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalisation) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. Conclusions There is a global asymmetry in who is likely to benefit from advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date, which have been focussed on hospitalised-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics that can feasibly be delivered to those earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priorityRevista Internacional - Indexad

Understanding the relation between Zika virus infection during pregnancy and adverse fetal, infant and child outcomes: a protocol for a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of longitudinal studies of pregnant women and their infants and children

IntroductionZika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy is a known cause of microcephaly and other congenital and developmental anomalies. In the absence of a ZIKV vaccine or prophylactics, principal investigators (PIs) and international leaders in ZIKV research have formed the ZIKV Individual Participant Data (IPD) Consortium to identify, collect and synthesise IPD from longitudinal studies of pregnant women that measure ZIKV infection during pregnancy and fetal, infant or child outcomes.Methods and analysisWe will identify eligible studies through the ZIKV IPD Consortium membership and a systematic review and invite study PIs to participate in the IPD meta-analysis (IPD-MA). We will use the combined dataset to estimate the relative and absolute risk of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS), including microcephaly and late symptomatic congenital infections; identify and explore sources of heterogeneity in those estimates and develop and validate a risk prediction model to identify the pregnancies at the highest risk of CZS or adverse developmental outcomes. The variable accuracy of diagnostic assays and differences in exposure and outcome definitions means that included studies will have a higher level of systematic variability, a component of measurement error, than an IPD-MA of studies of an established pathogen. We will use expert testimony, existing internal and external diagnostic accuracy validation studies and laboratory external quality assessments to inform the distribution of measurement error in our models. We will apply both Bayesian and frequentist methods to directly account for these and other sources of uncertainty.Ethics and disseminationThe IPD-MA was deemed exempt from ethical review. We will convene a group of patient advocates to evaluate the ethical implications and utility of the risk stratification tool. Findings from these analyses will be shared via national and international conferences and through publication in open access, peer-reviewed journals.Trial registration numberPROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews (CRD42017068915).</jats:sec

Clinical Characterization of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Adults: A Neglected Disease?

Lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) are a significant cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across all age groups, especially in children under 9 years of age, and adults over 75. The main causative agents are viruses, such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Viral LRIs in adults have historically received less attention. This study investigated the incidence of RSV and influenza in adult patients admitted to a referral hospital, as well as the clinical profile of these infections. Molecular testing was conducted on nasopharyngeal samples taken from a respiratory surveillance cohort comprising adult (15–59 years) and elderly (60+ years) hospitalized patients who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2, to determine the prevalence for influenza and RSV. Influenza was found to be less frequent among the elderly. The main symptoms of RSV infections were cough, fever, dyspnea, malaise, and respiratory distress, while headache, nasal congestion, a sore throat, and myalgia were most frequent in influenza. Elderly patients with RSV were not found to have more severe illness than adults under age 60, underscoring the importance of providing the same care to adults with this viral infection

Why Did ZIKV Perinatal Outcomes Differ in Distinct Regions of Brazil? An Exploratory Study of Two Cohorts

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Brazil occurred in regions where dengue viruses (DENV) are historically endemic. We investigated the differences in adverse pregnancy/infant outcomes in two cohorts comprising 114 pregnant women with PCR-confirmed ZIKV infection in Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil (n = 50) and Manaus, in the north region of the country (n = 64). Prior exposure to DENV was evaluated through plaque reduction neutralizing antibody assays (PRNT 80) and DENV IgG serologies. Potential associations between pregnancy outcomes and Zika attack rates in the two cities were explored. Overall, 31 women (27%) had adverse pregnancy/infant outcomes, 27 in Rio (54%) and 4 in Manaus (6%), p &lt; 0.001. This included 4 pregnancy losses (13%) and 27 infants with abnormalities at birth (24%). A total of 93 women (82%) had evidence of prior DENV exposure, 45 in Rio (90%) and 48 in Manaus (75%). Zika attack rates differed; the rate in Rio was 10.28 cases/10,000 and in Manaus, 0.6 cases/10,000, p &lt; 0.001. Only Zika attack rates (Odds Ratio: 17.6, 95% Confidence Interval 5.6-55.9, p &lt; 0.001) and infection in the first trimester of pregnancy (OR: 4.26, 95% CI 1.4-12.9, p = 0.011) were associated with adverse pregnancy and infant outcomes. Pre-existing immunity to DENV was not associated with outcomes (normal or abnormal) in patients with ZIKV infection during pregnancy

Influence of previous Zika virus infection on acute dengue episode.

BackgroundThe co-circulation of flaviviruses in tropical regions has led to the hypothesis that immunity generated by a previous dengue infection could promote severe disease outcomes in subsequent infections by heterologous serotypes. This study investigated the influence of antibodies generated by previous Zika infection on the clinical outcomes of dengue infection.Methodology/principal findingsWe enrolled 1,043 laboratory confirmed dengue patients and investigated their prior infection to Zika or dengue. Severe forms of dengue disease were more frequent in patients with previous Zika infection, but not in those previously exposed to dengue.Conclusions/significanceOur findings suggest that previous Zika infection may represent a risk factor for subsequent severe dengue disease, but we did not find evidence of antibody-dependent enhancement (higher viral titer or pro-inflammatory cytokine overexpression) contributing to exacerbation of the subsequent dengue infection

Why Did ZIKV Perinatal Outcomes Differ in Distinct Regions of Brazil? An Exploratory Study of Two Cohorts

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Brazil occurred in regions where dengue viruses (DENV) are historically endemic. We investigated the differences in adverse pregnancy/infant outcomes in two cohorts comprising 114 pregnant women with PCR-confirmed ZIKV infection in Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil (n = 50) and Manaus, in the north region of the country (n = 64). Prior exposure to DENV was evaluated through plaque reduction neutralizing antibody assays (PRNT 80) and DENV IgG serologies. Potential associations between pregnancy outcomes and Zika attack rates in the two cities were explored. Overall, 31 women (27%) had adverse pregnancy/infant outcomes, 27 in Rio (54%) and 4 in Manaus (6%), p &lt; 0.001. This included 4 pregnancy losses (13%) and 27 infants with abnormalities at birth (24%). A total of 93 women (82%) had evidence of prior DENV exposure, 45 in Rio (90%) and 48 in Manaus (75%). Zika attack rates differed; the rate in Rio was 10.28 cases/10,000 and in Manaus, 0.6 cases/10,000, p &lt; 0.001. Only Zika attack rates (Odds Ratio: 17.6, 95% Confidence Interval 5.6–55.9, p &lt; 0.001) and infection in the first trimester of pregnancy (OR: 4.26, 95% CI 1.4–12.9, p = 0.011) were associated with adverse pregnancy and infant outcomes. Pre-existing immunity to DENV was not associated with outcomes (normal or abnormal) in patients with ZIKV infection during pregnancy

Screening of reactive peptides using monoclonal antibodies.

(A) Heatmap matrix of peptides assessed with monoclonal specific antibodies against ZIKV or DENV in an indirect IgG ELISA platform. Highest scores were selected for soluble synthesis. Peptide ZV-53 was not stable in soluble form and excluded from analysis. (B) IgG pepELISA for validation of soluble peptides. Serum samples from patients validated with PRNT were evaluated on plates with DV-15, DV-20, ZV-54, and ZV-107.</p

Flow of sample selection for dengue-suspected cases with up to 7 days of symptoms onset.

Flow of sample selection for dengue-suspected cases with up to 7 days of symptoms onset.</p

Codebook.

BackgroundThe co-circulation of flaviviruses in tropical regions has led to the hypothesis that immunity generated by a previous dengue infection could promote severe disease outcomes in subsequent infections by heterologous serotypes. This study investigated the influence of antibodies generated by previous Zika infection on the clinical outcomes of dengue infection.Methodology/Principal findingsWe enrolled 1,043 laboratory confirmed dengue patients and investigated their prior infection to Zika or dengue. Severe forms of dengue disease were more frequent in patients with previous Zika infection, but not in those previously exposed to dengue.Conclusions/SignificanceOur findings suggest that previous Zika infection may represent a risk factor for subsequent severe dengue disease, but we did not find evidence of antibody-dependent enhancement (higher viral titer or pro-inflammatory cytokine overexpression) contributing to exacerbation of the subsequent dengue infection.</div