West Nile virus : from surveillance to prediction using Saskatchewan horses

This thesis describes the West Nile virus (WNV) epidemic in horses by exploring all aspects: sub-clinical infection, development of clinical disease and case fatality. All of the collected data were then compiled to create predictive risk maps of WNV infection for the province of Saskatchewan. During the 2003 season, 133 clinical cases were documented with laboratory testing. Week of onset of clinical signs, gender, and coat color were significant predictors of whether the horse died or was euthanized due to severity of clinical signs. Studies of the serological response to vaccination and natural infection were examined to interpret the lab results from over 1100 samples taken from approximately 875 horses in 2003. A serologic study involving 212 horses on 20 farms determined the prevalence of sub-clinical infection (55.7% (95%CI, 44.9% to 65.8%)) and identified risk factors for infection. The study found risk of infection was highest in the Grasslands ecoregions compared to the Boreal Transition ecoregion. A case control study looked at risk factors for development of clinical disease. The study followed 23 case farms and control farms with a total of 300 horses sampled. This was the first field study to show that vaccination was efficacious in preventing the development of clinical signs. The inclusion of horse surveillance data in the Saskatchewan Health WNV Integrated Surveillance Initiative was useful; however, it was discontinued due to time constraints, logistics, and declining monetary resources. Since West Nile Virus is a mosquito-borne disease it is highly influenced by environmental changes, spatially and temporally. Discriminant analyses were used to partition Saskatchewan rural municipalities (RM) into categories of risk of infection with WNV based on acquired horse data and different environmental and meteorological data derived from both satellites or climate stations. The result was the creation of yearly predictive risk maps defining low to high risk of infection with WNV for each RM. The 2003 epidemic provided a novel opportunity to study an important zoonotic disease emerging in a new environment. The information gathered will further the knowledge base upon which decisions for prevention of infection and clinical disease are made

The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife.

Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions. Here, we compile a global occurrence dataset of human, livestock and wildlife anthrax outbreaks. With these records, we use boosted regression trees to produce a map of the global distribution of B. anthracis as a proxy for anthrax risk. We estimate that 1.83 billion people (95% credible interval (CI): 0.59-4.16 billion) live within regions of anthrax risk, but most of that population faces little occupational exposure. More informatively, a global total of 63.8 million poor livestock keepers (95% CI: 17.5-168.6 million) and 1.1 billion livestock (95% CI: 0.4-2.3 billion) live within vulnerable regions. Human and livestock vulnerability are both concentrated in rural rainfed systems throughout arid and temperate land across Eurasia, Africa and North America. We conclude by mapping where anthrax risk could disrupt sensitive conservation efforts for wild ungulates that coincide with anthrax-prone landscapes

Demographic and Spatiotemporal Patterns of Avian Influenza Infection at the Continental Scale, and in Relation to Annual Life Cycle of a Migratory Host

Since the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in the eastern hemisphere, numerous surveillance programs and studies have been undertaken to detect the occurrence, distribution, or spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in wild bird populations worldwide. To identify demographic determinants and spatiotemporal patterns of AIV infection in long distance migratory waterfowl in North America, we fitted generalized linear models with binominal distribution to analyze results from 13,574 blue-winged teal (Anas discors, BWTE) sampled in 2007 to 2010 year round during AIV surveillance programs in Canada and the United States. Our analyses revealed that during late summer staging (July-August) and fall migration (September-October), hatch year (HY) birds were more likely to be infected than after hatch year (AHY) birds, however there was no difference between age categories for the remainder of the year (winter, spring migration, and breeding period), likely due to maturing immune systems and newly acquired immunity of HY birds. Probability of infection increased non-linearly with latitude, and was highest in late summer prior to fall migration when densities of birds and the proportion of susceptible HY birds in the population are highest. Birds in the Central and Mississippi flyways were more likely to be infected compared to those in the Atlantic flyway. Seasonal cycles and spatial variation of AIV infection were largely driven by the dynamics of AIV infection in HY birds, which had more prominent cycles and spatial variation in infection compared to AHY birds. Our results demonstrate demographic as well as seasonal, latitudinal and flyway trends across Canada and the US, while illustrating the importance of migratory host life cycle and age in driving cyclical patterns of prevalence

Use of Principal Components Analysis and Kriging to Predict Groundwater-Sourced Rural Drinking Water Quality in Saskatchewan

Groundwater drinking water supply surveillance data were accessed to summarize water quality delivered as public and private water supplies in southern Saskatchewan as part of an exposure assessment for epidemiologic analyses of associations between water quality and type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease. Arsenic in drinking water has been linked to a variety of chronic diseases and previous studies have identified multiple wells with arsenic above the drinking water standard of 0.01 mg/L; therefore, arsenic concentrations were of specific interest. Principal components analysis was applied to obtain principal component (PC) scores to summarize mixtures of correlated parameters identified as health standards and those identified as aesthetic objectives in the Saskatchewan Drinking Water Quality Standards and Objective. Ordinary, universal, and empirical Bayesian kriging were used to interpolate arsenic concentrations and PC scores in southern Saskatchewan, and the results were compared. Empirical Bayesian kriging performed best across all analyses, based on having the greatest number of variables for which the root mean square error was lowest. While all of the kriging methods appeared to underestimate high values of arsenic and PC scores, empirical Bayesian kriging was chosen to summarize large scale geographic trends in groundwater-sourced drinking water quality and assess exposure to mixtures of trace metals and ions

Parasitic zoonoses: one health surveillance in northern Saskatchewan.

We report the results of a joint human-animal health investigation in a Dene community in northern Saskatchewan, where residents harvest wildlife (including moose, bear, elk, and fish), live in close contact with free roaming dogs, and lack access to permanent veterinary services. Fecal analysis of owned and free-roaming dogs over two consecutive years (N = 92, 103) identified several parasites of public health concern, including Toxocara canis, Diphyllobothrium spp., Echinococcus/Taenia, Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia spp. Administration of pyrantel pamoate to a subset of dogs (N = 122) in the community in the first year was followed by reduced shedding of T. canis and other roundworms in the second year, demonstrating the potential utility of canine de-worming as a public health intervention. Using direct agglutination tests with confirmatory indirect fluorescent antibody test, 21% of 47 dogs were sero-positive for exposure to Toxoplasma gondii. Using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) sero-prevalence rates in 201 human volunteers were as follows: Toxoplasma gondii (14%), Echinococcus granulosus (48%), Toxocara canis (13%) and Trichinella spp. (16%). Overall 65% of participants were sero-positive for at least one parasite. A survey administered to volunteers indicated few associations between widely accepted risk factors for parasite exposure and serological status, emphasizing the importance of environmental transmission of these parasites through soil, food, and waterborne routes

Comparative chronic toxicity of three neonicotinoids on New Zealand packaged honey bees

<div><p>Background</p><p>Thiamethoxam, clothianidin, and imidacloprid are the most commonly used neonicotinoid insecticides on the Canadian prairies. There is widespread contamination of nectar and pollen with neonicotinoids, at concentrations which are sublethal for honey bees (<i>Apis mellifera</i> Linnaeus).</p><p>Objective</p><p>We compared the effects of chronic, sublethal exposure to the three most commonly used neonicotinoids on honey bee colonies established from New Zealand packaged bees using colony weight gain, brood area, and population size as measures of colony performance.</p><p>Methods</p><p>From May 7 to July 29, 2016 (12 weeks), sixty-eight colonies received weekly feedings of sugar syrup and pollen patties containing 0 nM, 20 nM (median environmental dose), or 80 nM (high environmental dose) of one of three neonicotinoids (thiamethoxam, clothianidin, and imidacloprid). Colonies were weighed at three-week intervals. Brood area and population size were determined from digital images of colonies at week 12. Statistical analyses were performed by ANOVA and mixed models.</p><p>Results</p><p>There was a significant negative effect (-30%, p<0.01) on colony weight gain (honey production) after 9 and 12 weeks of exposure to 80 nM of thiamethoxam, clothianidin, or imidacloprid and on bee cluster size (-21%, p<0.05) after 12 weeks. Analysis of brood area and number of adult bees lacked adequate (>80%) statistical power to detect an effect.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>Chronic exposure of honey bees to high environmental doses of neonicotinoids has negative effects on honey production. Brood area appears to be less sensitive to detect sublethal effects of neonicotinoids.</p></div