Optimal management of an insurer's exposure in a competitive general insurance market

The qualitative behavior of the optimal premium strategy is determined for an insurer in a finite and an infinite market using a deterministic general insurance model. The optimization problem leads to a system of forward-backward differential equations obtained from Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. The focus of the modelling is on how this optimization problem can be simplified by the choice of demand function and the insurer’s objective. Phase diagrams are used to characterize the optimal control. When the demand is linear in the relative premium, the structure of the phase diagram can be determined analytically. Two types of premium strategy are identified for an insurer in an infinite market, and which is optimal depends on the existence of equilibrium points in the phase diagram. In a finite market there are four more types of premium strategy, and optimality depends on the initial exposure of the insurer and the position of a saddle point in the phase diagram. The effect of a nonlinear demand function is examined by perturbing the linear price function. An analytical optimal premium strategy is also found using inverse methods when the price function is nonlinear

Exploring the anthelmintic properties of Australian native shrubs with respect to their potential role in livestock grazing systems

We measured in vitro anthelmintic activity in extracts from 85 species of Australian native shrub, with a view to identifying species able to provide a degree of worm control in grazing systems. Approximately 40% of the species showed significant activity in inhibiting development of Haemonchus contortus larvae. The most active extracts showed IC50 values of 60–300 mg/ml. Pre-incubation with polyvinylpolypyrrolidine removed the activity from some extracts, implicating tannins as the bioactive agent, while in other cases the pre-incubation had no effect, indicating the presence of other anthelmintic compounds. Plant reproductive maturity (onset of flowering or fruiting) was associated with increasing anthelmintic activity in some species. Variability was observed between plants of the same species growing in different environments, while variation between individual plants of the same species within a single field suggests the existence of distinct chemotypes. Significant activity against adult H. contortus worms in vitro was also demonstrated in a limited number of extracts tested against this life stage. Our study indicates that there is potential for Australian native shrubs to play an anthelmintic role in grazing systems, and highlights some plant biology factors which will need to be considered in order to maximize any anthelmintic effects.A. C. Kotze, J. O’Grady, J. Emms, A. F. Toovey, S. Hughes, P. Jessop, M. Bennell P. E. Vercoe and D. K. Revel

Development and validation of two clinical prediction models to inform clinical decision-making for lumbar spinal fusion surgery for degenerative disorders and rehabilitation following surgery: protocol for a prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION: Potential predictors of poor outcome will be measured at baseline: (1) preoperatively to develop a clinical prediction model to predict which patients are likely to have favourable outcome following lumbar spinal fusion surgery (LSFS) and (2) postoperatively to predict which patients are likely to have favourable long-term outcomes (to inform rehabilitation). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Prospective observational study with a defined episode inception of the point of surgery. Electronic data will be collected through the British Spine Registry and will include patient-reported outcome measures (eg, Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire) and data items (eg, smoking status). Consecutive patients (≥18 years) undergoing LSFS for back and/or leg pain of degenerative cause will be recruited. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: LSFS for spinal fracture, inflammatory disease, malignancy, infection, deformity and revision surgery. 1000 participants will be recruited (n=600 prediction model development, n=400 internal validation derived model; planning 10 events per candidate prognostic factor). The outcome being predicted is an individual's absolute risk of poor outcome (disability and pain) at 6 weeks (objective 1) and 12 months postsurgery (objective 2). Disability and pain will be measured using the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), and severity of pain in the previous week with a Numerical Rating Scale (NRS 0-10), respectively. Good outcome is defined as a change of 1.7 on the NRS for pain, and a change of 14.3 on the ODI. Both linear and logistic (to dichotomise outcome into low and high risk) multivariable regression models will be fitted and mean differences or ORs for each candidate predictive factor reported. Internal validation of the derived model will use a further set of British Spine Registry data. External validation will be geographical using two spinal registries in The Netherlands and Switzerland. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval (University of Birmingham ERN_17-0446A). Dissemination through peer-reviewed journals and conferences

Mitigation of carbon using Atriplex nummularia revegetation

The use of abandoned or marginally productive land to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions may avoid competition with food and water production. Atriplex nummularia Lindl. is a perennial shrub commonly established for livestock forage on saline land, however, its potential for carbon mitigation has not been systematically evaluated. Similarly, although revegetation is an allowable activity to mitigate carbon within Article 3.4 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's Kyoto Protocol, there is a paucity of information on rates of carbon mitigation in soils and biomass through this mechanism. For six sites where A. nummularia had been established across southern Australia four were used to assess changes in soil carbon storage and four were used to develop biomass carbon sequestration estimates. A generalised allometric equation for above and below ground biomass was developed, with a simple crown volume index explaining 81% of the variation in total biomass. There were no significant differences in soil organic carbon storage to 0.3 m or 2 m depth compared to existing agricultural land-use. Between 2.2 and 8.3 Mg C ha−1 or 0.2–0.6 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 was sequestered in above and below ground biomass and this translates to potential total sequestration of 1.1–3.6 Tg C yr−1 on saline land across Australia. Carbon income and forage grazing may thus provide a means to finance the stabilization of compromised land

The Quest for Orthologs benchmark service and consensus calls in 2020.

The identification of orthologs-genes in different species which descended from the same gene in their last common ancestor-is a prerequisite for many analyses in comparative genomics and molecular evolution. Numerous algorithms and resources have been conceived to address this problem, but benchmarking and interpreting them is fraught with difficulties (need to compare them on a common input dataset, absence of ground truth, computational cost of calling orthologs). To address this, the Quest for Orthologs consortium maintains a reference set of proteomes and provides a web server for continuous orthology benchmarking (http://orthology.benchmarkservice.org). Furthermore, consensus ortholog calls derived from public benchmark submissions are provided on the Alliance of Genome Resources website, the joint portal of NIH-funded model organism databases

Comparison of the protein-coding genomes of three deep-sea, sulfur-oxidising bacteria: “Candidatus Ruthia magnifica”, “Candidatus Vesicomyosocius okutanii” and Thiomicrospira crunogena

Abstract Objective “ Candidatus Ruthia magnifica”, “Candidatus Vesicomyosocius okutanii” and Thiomicrospira crunogena are all sulfur-oxidising bacteria found in deep-sea vent environments. Recent research suggests that the two symbiotic organisms, “Candidatus R. magnifica” and “Candidatus V. okutanii”, may share common ancestry with the autonomously living species T. crunogena. We used comparative genomics to examine the genome-wide protein-coding content of all three species to explore their similarities. In particular, we used the OrthoMCL algorithm to sort proteins into groups of putative orthologs on the basis of sequence similarity. Results The OrthoMCL inflation parameter was tuned using biological criteria. Using the tuned value, OrthoMCL delimited 1070 protein groups. 63.5% of these groups contained one protein from each species. Two groups contained duplicate protein copies from all three species. 123 groups were unique to T. crunogena and ten groups included multiple copies of T. crunogena proteins but only single copies from the other species. “Candidatus R. magnifica” had one unique group, and had multiple copies in one group where the other species had a single copy. There were no groups unique to “Candidatus V. okutanii”, and no groups in which there were multiple “Candidatus V. okutanii” proteins but only single proteins from the other species. Results align with previous suggestions that all three species share a common ancestor. However this is not definitive evidence to make taxonomic conclusions and the possibility of horizontal gene transfer was not investigated. Methodologically, the tuning of the OrthoMCL inflation parameter using biological criteria provides further methods to refine the OrthoMCL procedure

Bronchial Responsiveness Is Related to Increased Exhaled NO (FENO) in Non-Smokers and Decreased FENO in Smokers

Rationale Both atopy and smoking are known to be associated with increased bronchial responsiveness. Fraction of nitric oxide (NO) in the exhaled air (FENO), a marker of airways inflammation, is decreased by smoking and increased by atopy. NO has also a physiological bronchodilating and bronchoprotective role. Objectives To investigate how the relation between FENO and bronchial responsiveness is modulated by atopy and smoking habits. Methods Exhaled NO measurements and methacholine challenge were performed in 468 subjects from the random sample of three European Community Respiratory Health Survey II centers: Turin (Italy), Gothenburg and Uppsala (both Sweden). Atopy status was defined by using specific IgE measurements while smoking status was questionnaire-assessed. Main Results Increased bronchial responsiveness was associated with increased FENO levels in non-smokers (p = 0.02) and decreased FENO levels in current smokers (p = 0.03). The negative association between bronchial responsiveness and FENO was seen only in the group smoking less <10 cigarettes/day (p = 0.008). Increased bronchial responsiveness was associated with increased FENO in atopic subjects (p = 0.04) while no significant association was found in non-atopic participants. The reported interaction between FENO and smoking and atopy, respectively were maintained after adjusting for possible confounders (p-values<0.05). Conclusions The present study highlights the interactions of the relationship between FENO and bronchial responsiveness with smoking and atopy, suggesting different mechanisms behind atopy- and smoking-related increases of bronchial responsiveness

Tracing animal genomic evolution with the chromosomal-level assembly of the freshwater sponge Ephydatia muelleri

Abstract The genomes of non-bilaterian metazoans are key to understanding the molecular basis of early animal evolution. However, a full comprehension of how animal-specific traits such as nervous systems arose is hindered by the scarcity and fragmented nature of genomes from key taxa, such as Porifera. Ephydatia muelleri is a freshwater sponge found across the northern hemisphere. Here we present its 326 Mb genome, assembled to high contiguity (N50: 9.88 Mb) with 23 chromosomes on 24 scaffolds. Our analyses reveal a metazoan-typical genome architecture, with highly shared synteny across Metazoa, and suggest that adaptation to the extreme temperatures and conditions found in freshwater often involves gene duplication. The pancontinental distribution and ready laboratory culture of E. muelleri make this a highly practical model system, which with RNAseq, DNA methylation and bacterial amplicon data spanning its development and range allows exploration of genomic changes both within sponges and in early animal evolution