The role of human operators in safety perception of av deployment—insights from a large european survey

Autonomous vehicles are anticipated to play an important role on future mobility offering encouraging solutions to today’s transport problems. However, concerns of the public, which can affect the AVs’ uptake, are yet to be addressed. This study presents relevant findings of an online survey in eight European countries. First, 1639 responses were collected in Spring 2020 on people’s commute, preferred transport mode, willingness to use AVs and demographic details. Data was analyzed for the entire dataset and for vulnerable road users in particular. Results re-confirm the long-lasting discourse on the importance of safety on the acceptance of AVs. Spearman correlations show that age, gender, education level and number of household members have an impact on how people may be using or allowing their children to use the technology, e.g., with or without the presence of a human supervisor in the vehicle. Results on vulnerable road users show the same trend. The elderly would travel in AVs with the presence of a human supervisor. People with disabilities have the same proclivity, however their reactions were more conservative. Next to safety, reliability, affordability, cost, driving pleasure and household size may also impact the uptake of AVs and shall be considered when designing relevant policies

Gadget for anchovy 9a South: Model description and results to provide catch advice and reference points (WGHANSA-1 2021)

The model speci fications presented below correspond to those benchmarked in WKPELA 2018. The main difference is that results are presented now for the end of the second quarter of each year instead of being presented at the end of the fourth quarter. This responds to practical modi cations in the de nition of the assessment year, now it goes from July 1st to June 30th of the next year. Model speci fications for this year are presented in section 2.2 and ??, as well as estimated parameters after optimization in Table 2

Novel parallelization of simulated annealing and Hooke & Jeeves search algorithms for multicore systems with application to complex fisheries stock assessment models

[Abstract] Estimating parameters of a statistical fisheries assessment model typically involves a comparison of disparate datasets to a forward simulation model through a likelihood function. In all but trivial cases the estimations of these models tend to be time-consuming due to issues related to multi-modality and non-linearity. This paper develops novel parallel implementations of popular search algorithms, applicable to expensive function calls typically encountered in fisheries stock assessment. It proposes two versions of both Simulated Annealing and Hooke & Jeeves optimization algorithms with the aim of fully utilizing the processing power of common multicore systems. The proposals have been tested on a 24-core server using three different input models. Results indicate that the parallel versions are able to take advantage of available resources without sacrificing the quality of the solution.Galicia. Consellería de Cultura, Educación e Ordenación Universitaria; R2014/04

Gadget for anchovy 9a South: Model description and results to provide catch advice and reference points (WGHANSA-1 2022).

The model speci fications presented below correspond to those benchmarked in WKPELA 2018. The main difference is that results are presented now for the end of the second quarter of each year instead of be presented at the end of the fourth quarter. This responds to practical modi cations in the defi nition of the assessment year, now it goes from July 1st to June 30th of the next year. Specifi c model assumptions for this year are presented in section 2.2 and 3, as well as estimated parameters after optimization in Table 2

Modeling cross-national differences in automated vehicle acceptance

The technology that allows fully automated driving already exists and it may gradually enter the market over the forthcoming decades. Technology assimilation and automated vehicle acceptance in different countries is of high interest to many scholars, manufacturers, and policymakers worldwide. We model the mode choice between automated vehicles and conventional cars using a mixed multinomial logit heteroskedastic error component type model. Specifically, we capture preference heterogeneity assuming a continuous distribution across individuals. Different choice scenarios, based on respondents’ reported trip, were presented to respondents from six European countries: Cyprus, Hungary, Iceland, Montenegro, Slovenia, and the UK. We found that large reservations towards automated vehicles exist in all countries with 70% conventional private car choices, and 30% automated vehicles choices. We found that men, under the age of 60, with a high income who currently use private car, are more likely to be early adopters of automated vehicles. We found significant differences in automated vehicles acceptance in different countries. Individuals from Slovenia and Cyprus show higher automated vehicles acceptance while individuals from wealthier countries, UK, and Iceland, show more reservations towards them. Nontrading mode choice behaviors, value of travel time, and differences in model parameters among the different countries are discussed

WORKSHOP ON GUIDELINES FOR MANAGEMENT STRATEGY EVALUATIONS (WKGMSE2)

The purpose of the meeting was to bring up to date the methodologies and technical specifications that should be incorporated in Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) work in ICES. The workshop was tasked with reviewing recent methodological and practical MSE work conducted in ICES and around the world, as well as the guidelines provided by the 2013 ICES Workshop on Guidelines for Management Strategy Evaluations (WKGMSE). The Terms of Reference indicated that the revision should include all aspects involved in MSE, while paying specific attention to several issues that had been identified through ICES practice. The Terms of Reference also requested WKGMSE 2 to consider how best to disseminate the guidelines to experts within the ICES community and the need for training courses. The workshop addressed all its Terms of Reference. The main results of the workshop are the revised MSE guidelines, as well as recommendations in relation to the ICES criterion for defining a management strategy as precautionary and in relation to the evaluation and advice on rebuilding strategies.publishedVersio

Considering automated vehicle deployment uncertainty in the design of optimal parking garages using real options

Parking garages are often currently designed assuming that parking demand will be stable over their lifetime. The looming mobility shift towards automated vehicles (AVs), however, makes parking demand highly uncertain, with some scenarios leading to its complete disappearance at some time in the near future. The design of optimal parking garages needs to take this uncertainty into consideration and may lead to parking garages that can easily be transformed for other uses when beneficial.In situations of large future demand uncertainty, infrastructure owners are increasingly using the real options method to help evaluate the potential benefits of paying more for construction of flexibly designed infrastructure. The real options method, helps owners, to avoid under-, or overinvesting in infrastructure, through the minimisation of their risks. In this work, a methodology, which uses the real options method, is proposed to determine the optimal design of a parking garage located within a residential building.The methodology is used, together with estimates of the uncertainty in the future parking demand due to deployment of AVs, Monte Carlo simulations of the possible futures, stakeholder costs for operation and refurbishment costs for each of the different design alternatives and intervention strategies, to estimate the net benefits over the life-time of the parking garage. The methodology is used to evaluate designs and intervention strategies for the 14000 m2 463-lot parking garage in a residential building in western Switzerland. The designs are a traditional design and a flexible design. The construction of a building according to the two design approaches would bear costs of 10 and 11 million CHF, respectively. The intervention strategies for the traditional building are a single stage intervention strategy and a no intervention strategy. The intervention strategies for the flexible building are a single-stage intervention strategy and a multi-stage intervention strategy. The traditionally designed building costs 2 million CHF to demolish and 29 million CHF to reconstruct as a residential building. The flexibly designed building costs 21 million to adapt for residential use.It is shown that the flexible design and a multi-stage intervention strategy (i.e. transforming the parking garage floor by floor on an as needed basis), provides the highest net benefits (2.2 million CHF). The flexible design and a single-stage intervention strategy provides the second highest net benefits (1.3 million CHF). A traditional design with a single-stage intervention strategy provides 0.5 million CHF in net benefit, and the traditional design with a no intervention strategy results in a net loss of 3.0 million CHF. A sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of the options.Since the use of the proposed methodology helps owners identify all the possible designs and intervention strategies as well as increases their ability to accurately estimate the net-benefit of their decisions, it is concluded that it is advantageous for owners to use the proposed methodology in determining the optimal design of parking garages. Its use will help ensure that they are optimally positioned to deal with the uncertain future

Exploratory modelling for transport infrastructure planning under future uncertainty

Planning transport infrastructure is particularly difficult due to infrastructure’s long-lived nature, unpredictable technological progress and changing mobility trends in society. In complex systems facing major uncertainties, exploratory modelling can help define salient system characteristics and discover potential risks and opportunities by evaluating large ensembles of potential conditions during the planning process. This paper demonstrates how exploratory modelling can provide planning support for a federal highway from Dübendorf to Hinwil in Zürich, Switzerland. We model the future traffic flows at peak hours considering uncertainty in urban development, jobs distribution and future modal share. Current road infrastructure and further potential capacity expansions and reallocations are then tested on their robustness to provide adequate performance (in terms of travel delays) in multiple future scenarios. We use quantitative methods to identify the subset of scenarios representing risks and opportunities for the infrastructure system. The visualization of such subset of scenarios in uncertainty maps can help target interventions only when needed

A bootstrap method for estimating bias and variance in statistical fisheries modelling frameworks using highly disparate datasets

Statistical models of marine ecosystems use a variety of data sources to estimate parameters using composite or weighted likelihood functions with associated weighting issues and questions on how to obtain variance estimates. Regardless of the method used to obtain point estimates, a method is required for variance estimation. A bootstrap technique is introduced for the evaluation of uncertainty in such models, taking into account inherent spatial and temporal correlations in the datasets, which are commonly transferred as assumptions from a likelihood estimation procedure into Hessian-based variance estimation procedures. The technique is demonstrated on a real dataset and the effects of the number of bootstrap samples on estimation bias and variance estimates are studied. Although the modelling framework and bootstrap method can be applied to multispecies and multiarea models, for clarity the case study described is of a single-species and single-area model