The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Influenza epidemiology and risk factors for severe acute respiratory infection in Morocco during the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 seasons

Introduction: in order to implement an influenza vaccination program for high-risk-groups in Morocco, as recommended by the World Health Organization, an epidemiological study indicating the influenza virus effect in the development of complicated influenza for subjects with co-morbidity was required. The present study aims to evaluate the risk factors for severe acute respiratory infections caused by influenza in risk groups. Methods: this research is based on the epidemiological and virological surveillance data of severe acute respiratory infections and influenza-like illness during the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 seasons. It was realized using a retrospective series study with a descriptive and analytical purpose. Results: the over-recruitment of pediatric cases with a severe acute respiratory infection has been significantly rectified because cases of severe acute respiratory infections under 15 years old in the 2017/2018 season represent only 57.9%, whereas they represented 75.9% of the total cases of severe acute respiratory infections during the 2016/2017 season. The influenza positivity rate has increased globally and specifically by age group, clinical service and co-morbidity. The risk factors considered were significantly associated with hospitalization for influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infections. The multivariate logistic regression analysis considers male sex (OR=2.1), age ≥65 years (OR=5.4), presence of influenza cases in the surroundings (OR=0.1), diabetes (OR=7.5) and chronic respiratory disease (OR=10.9) as risk factors influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infections. Conclusion: the risk assessment of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infections in high-risk groups revealed national epidemiological findings, particularly for diabetics and the elderly. An influenza vaccination program for these high-risk-groups becomes much recommended in Morocco

The epidemiological signature of influenza B virus and its B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages in the 21st century

We describe the epidemiological characteristics, pattern of circulation, and geographical distribution of influenza B viruses and its lineages using data from the Global Influenza B Study. We included over 1.8 million influenza cases occurred in thirty-one countries during 2000-2018. We calculated the proportion of cases caused by influenza B and its lineages; determined the timing of influenza A and B epidemics; compared the age distribution of B/Victoria and B/Yamagata cases; and evaluated the frequency of lineage-level mismatch for the trivalent vaccine. The median proportion of influenza cases caused by influenza B virus was 23.4%, with a tendency (borderline statistical significance, p = 0.060) to be higher in tropical vs. temperate countries. Influenza B was the dominant virus type in about one every seven seasons. In temperate countries, influenza B epidemics occurred on average three weeks later than influenza A epidemics; no consistent pattern emerged in the tropics. The two B lineages caused a comparable proportion of influenza B cases globally, however the B/Yamagata was more frequent in temperate countries, and the B/Victoria in the tropics (p = 0.048). B/Yamagata patients were significantly older than B/Victoria patients in almost all countries. A lineage-level vaccine mismatch was observed in over 40% of seasons in temperate countries and in 30% of seasons in the tropics. The type B virus caused a substantial proportion of influenza infections globally in the 21st century, and its two virus lineages differed in terms of age and geographical distribution of patients. These findings will help inform health policy decisions aiming to reduce disease burden associated with seasonal influenza

Distribution of influenza virus types by age using case-based global surveillance data from twenty-nine countries, 1999-2014

Background: Influenza disease burden varies by age and this has important public health implications. We compared the proportional distribution of different influenza virus types within age strata using surveillance data from twenty-nine countries during 1999-2014 (N=358,796 influenza cases)

Distribution of influenza virus types by age using case-based global surveillance data from twenty-nine countries, 1999-2014

BACKGROUND : Influenza disease burden varies by age and this has important public health implications. We compared the proportional distribution of different influenza virus types within age strata using surveillance data from twenty-nine countries during 1999-2014 (N=358,796 influenza cases). METHODS : For each virus, we calculated a Relative Illness Ratio (defined as the ratio of the percentage of cases in an age group to the percentage of the country population in the same age group) for young children (0-4 years), older children (5-17 years), young adults (18-39 years), older adults (40-64 years), and the elderly (65+ years). We used random-effects meta-analysis models to obtain summary relative illness ratios (sRIRs), and conducted metaregression and sub-group analyses to explore causes of between-estimates heterogeneity. RESULTS : The influenza virus with highest sRIR was A(H1N1) for young children, B for older children, A(H1N1) pdm2009 for adults, and (A(H3N2) for the elderly. As expected, considering the diverse nature of the national surveillance datasets included in our analysis, between-estimates heterogeneity was high (I2>90%) for most sRIRs. The variations of countries’ geographic, demographic and economic characteristics and the proportion of outpatients among reported influenza cases explained only part of the heterogeneity, suggesting that multiple factors were at play. CONCLUSIONS : These results highlight the importance of presenting burden of disease estimates by age group and virus (sub)type.Table S1. Number of influenza cases caused by the difference influenza viruses that were included in the analysis. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999-2014.Figure S1. Forest plot of the Relative Illness Ratio for patients aged 0-4 years infected with A(H1N1) influenza virus. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999-2014. Figure S2. Forest plot of the Relative Illness Ratio for patients aged 5-17 years infected with A(H1N1) influenza virus. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999-2014. Figure S3. Forest plot of the Relative Illness Ratio for patients aged 18-39 years infected with A(H1N1) influenza virus. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999-2014. Figure S4. Forest plot of the Relative Illness Ratio for patients aged 40-64 years infected with A(H1N1) influenza virus. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999-2014. Figure S5. Forest plot of the Relative Illness Ratio for patients aged 65+ years infected with A(H1N1) influenza virus. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999-2014.Table S2. Summary Relative Illness Ratio (sRIR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) across age groups and influenza viruses by categories of country ageing index. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999- 2014. Table S3. Summary Relative Illness Ratio (sRIR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) across age groups and influenza viruses by percentage of outpatients among cases reported to the influenza surveillance system. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999-2014. Table S4. Summary Relative Illness Ratio (sRIR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) across age groups and influenza viruses by country latitude. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999-2014. Table S5. Summary Relative Illness Ratio (sRIR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) across age groups and influenza viruses by percentage of influenza cases caused by that influenza virus in the same season. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999-2014. Table S6. Summary Relative Illness Ratio (sRIR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) across age groups and influenza viruses by percentage of influenza cases caused by that influenza virus in the previous season. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999-2014. Table S7. Summary Relative Illness Ratio (sRIR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) across age groups and influenza viruses by categories of country gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The Global Influenza B Study, 1999-2014.The Global Influenza B Study is funded by an unrestricted research grant from Sanofi Pasteur.https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.comam2019Medical Virolog