Sudden drop of fractal dimension of electromagnetic emissions recorded prior to significant earthquake

The variation of fractal dimension and entropy during a damage evolution process, especially approaching critical failure, has been recently investigated. A sudden drop of fractal dimension has been proposed as a quantitative indicator of damage localization or a likely precursor of an impending catastrophic failure. In this contribution, electromagnetic emissions recorded prior to significant earthquake are analysed to investigate whether they also present such sudden fractal dimension and entropy drops as the main catastrophic event is approaching. The pre-earthquake electromagnetic time series analysis results reveal a good agreement to the theoretically expected ones indicating that the critical fracture is approaching

Statistical Mechanics and Information-Theoretic Perspectives on Complexity in the Earth System

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

From pre-storm activity to magnetic storms: a transition described in terms of fractal dynamics

International audienceWe show that distinct changes in scaling parameters of the Dst index time series occur as an intense magnetic storm approaches, revealing a gradual reduction in complexity. The remarkable acceleration of energy release ? manifested in the increase in susceptibility ? couples to the transition from anti-persistent (negative feedback) to persistent (positive feedback) behavior and indicates that the occurence of an intense magnetic storm is imminent. The main driver of the Dst index, the VBSouth electric field component, does not reveal a similar transition to persistency prior to the storm. This indicates that while the magnetosphere is mostly driven by the solar wind the critical feature of persistency in the magnetosphere is the result of a combination of solar wind and internal magnetospheric activity rather than solar wind variations alone. Our results suggest that the development of an intense magnetic storm can be studied in terms of "intermittent criticality" that is of a more general character than the classical self-organized criticality phenomena, implying the predictability of the magnetosphere

Scaling similarities of multiple fracturing of solid materials

It has recently reported that electromagnetic flashes of low-energy <IMG WIDTH='12' HEIGHT='29' ALIGN='MIDDLE' BORDER='0' src='http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/11/137/2004/npg-11-137-img1.gif' ALT='$gamma$'>-rays emitted during multi-fracturing on a neutron star, and electromagnetic pulses emitted in the laboratory by a disordered material subjected to an increasing external load, share distinctive statistical properties with earthquakes, such as power-law energy distributions (Cheng et al., 1996; Kossobokov et al., 2000; Rabinovitch et al., 2001; Sornette and Helmstetter, 2002). The neutron starquakes may release strain energies up to <IMG WIDTH='32' HEIGHT='16' ALIGN='BOTTOM' BORDER='0' src='http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/11/137/2004/npg-11-137-img2.gif' ALT='$10^{46}$'>erg, while, the fractures in laboratory samples release strain energies approximately a fraction of an erg. An earthquake fault region can build up strain energy up to approximately <IMG WIDTH='32' HEIGHT='16' ALIGN='BOTTOM' BORDER='0' src='http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/11/137/2004/npg-11-137-img3.gif' ALT='$10^{26}$'>erg for the strongest earthquakes. Clear sequences of kilohertz-megahertz electromagnetic avalanches have been detected from a few days up to a few hours prior to recent destructive earthquakes in Greece. A question that arises effortlessly is if the pre-seismic electromagnetic fluctuations also share the same statistical properties. Our study justifies a positive answer. Our analysis also reveals 'symptoms' of a transition to the main rupture common with earthquake sequences and acoustic emission pulses observed during laboratory experiments (Maes et al., 1998)

Unified approach to catastrophic events: from the normal state to geological or biological shock in terms of spectral fractal and nonlinear analysis

An important question in geophysics is whether earthquakes (EQs) can be anticipated prior to their occurrence. Pre-seismic electromagnetic (EM) emissions provide a promising window through which the dynamics of EQ preparation can be investigated. However, the existence of precursory features in pre-seismic EM emissions is still debatable: in principle, it is difficult to prove associations between events separated in time, such as EQs and their EM precursors. The scope of this paper is the investigation of the pre-seismic EM activity in terms of complexity. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behavior close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. Interestingly, theoretical studies (Hopfield, 1994; Herz and Hopfield 1995; Rundle et al., 1995; Corral et al., 1997) suggest that the EQ dynamics at the final stage and neural seizure dynamics should have many similar features and can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. Motivated by this hypothesis, we evaluate the capability of linear and non-linear techniques to extract common features from brain electrical activities and pre-seismic EM emissions predictive of epileptic seizures and EQs respectively. The results suggest that a unified theory may exist for the ways in which firing neurons and opening cracks organize themselves to produce a large crisis, while the preparation of an epileptic shock or a large EQ can be studied in terms of ''Intermittent Criticality''

Statistical mechanics and information-theoretic perspectives on complexity in the Earth system

This review provides a summary of methods originated in (non-equilibrium) statistical mechanics and information theory, which have recently found successful applications to quantitatively studying complexity in various components of the complex system Earth. Specifically, we discuss two classes of methods: (i) entropies of different kinds (e.g., on the one hand classical Shannon and R´enyi entropies, as well as non-extensive Tsallis entropy based on symbolic dynamics techniques and, on the other hand, approximate entropy, sample entropy and fuzzy entropy); and (ii) measures of statistical interdependence and causality (e.g., mutual information and generalizations thereof, transfer entropy, momentary information transfer). We review a number of applications and case studies utilizing the above-mentioned methodological approaches for studying contemporary problems in some exemplary fields of the Earth sciences, highlighting the potentials of different techniques

Evolving towards a critical point: A possible electromagnetic way in which the critical regime is reached as the rupture approaches

International audienceIn analogy to the study of critical phase transitions in statistical physics, it has been argued recently that the fracture of heterogeneous materials could be viewed as a critical phenomenon, either at laboratory or at geophysical scales. If the picture of the development of the fracture is correct one may guess that the precursors may reveal the critical approach of the main-shock. When a heterogeneous material is stretched, its evolution towards breaking is characterized by the appearance of microcracks before the final break-up. Microcracks produce both acoustic and electromagnetic(EM) emission in the frequency range from VLF to VHF. The microcracks and the associated acoustic and EM activities constitute the so-called precursors of general fracture. These precursors are detectable not only at laboratory but also at geophysical scales. VLF and VHF acoustic and EM emissions have been reported resulting from volcanic and seismic activities in various geologically distinct regions of the world. In the present work we attempt to establish the hypothesis that the evolution of the Earth's crust towards the critical point takes place not only in a mechanical but also in an electromagnetic sense. In other words, we focus on the possible electromagnetic criticality, which is reached while the catastrophic rupture in the Earth's crust approaches. Our main tool is the monitoring of micro-fractures that occur before the final breakup, by recording their radio-electromagnetic emissions. We show that the spectral power law analysis of the electromagnetic precursors reveals distinguishing signatures of underlying critical dynamics, such as: (i) the emergence of memory effects; (ii) the decrease with time of the anti-persistence behaviour; (iii) the presence of persistence properties in the tail of the sequence of the precursors; and (iv) the acceleration of the precursory electro-magnetic energy release. Moreover, the statistical analysis of the amplitudes of the electromagnetic fluctuations reveals the breaking of the symmetry as the theory predicts. Finally, we try to answer the question: how universal the observed electromagnetic critical behaviour of the failing system is

First-order transition features of the 3D bimodal random-field Ising model

Two numerical strategies based on the Wang-Landau and Lee entropic sampling schemes are implemented to investigate the first-order transition features of the 3D bimodal ($\pm h$) random-field Ising model at the strong disorder regime. We consider simple cubic lattices with linear sizes in the range $L=4-32$ and simulate the system for two values of the disorder strength: $h=2$ and $h=2.25$. The nature of the transition is elucidated by applying the Lee-Kosterlitz free-energy barrier method. Our results indicate that, despite the strong first-order-like characteristics, the transition remains continuous, in disagreement with the early mean-field theory prediction of a tricritical point at high values of the random-field.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures, slightly extended version as accepted for publicatio

Ground Water Chemistry Changes before Major Earthquakes and Possible Effects on Animals

Prior to major earthquakes many changes in the environment have been documented. Though often subtle and fleeting, these changes are noticeable at the land surface, in water, in the air, and in the ionosphere. Key to understanding these diverse pre-earthquake phenomena has been the discovery that, when tectonic stresses build up in the Earth’s crust, highly mobile electronic charge carriers are activated. These charge carriers are defect electrons on the oxygen anion sublattice of silicate minerals, known as positive holes, chemically equivalent to O− in a matrix of O2−. They are remarkable inasmuch as they can flow out of the stressed rock volume and spread into the surrounding unstressed rocks. Travelling fast and far the positive holes cause a range of follow-on reactions when they arrive at the Earth’s surface, where they cause air ionization, injecting massive amounts of primarily positive air ions into the lower atmosphere. When they arrive at the rock-water interface, they act as •O radicals, oxidizing water to hydrogen peroxide. Other reactions at the rock-water interface include the oxidation or partial oxidation of dissolved organic compounds, leading to changes of their fluorescence spectra. Some compounds thus formed may be irritants or toxins to certain species of animals. Common toads, Bufo bufo, were observed to exhibit a highly unusual behavior prior to a M6.3 earthquake that hit L’Aquila, Italy, on April 06, 2009: a few days before the seismic event the toads suddenly disappeared from their breeding site in a small lake about 75 km from the epicenter and did not return until after the aftershock series. In this paper we discuss potential changes in groundwater chemistry prior to seismic events and their possible effects on animals