A Comparative Frequency Analysis of Maximum Daily Rainfall for a SE Asian Region under Current and Future Climate Conditions

The impact of changing climate on the frequency of daily rainfall extremes in Jakarta, Indonesia, is analysed and quantified. The study used three different models to assess the changes in rainfall characteristics. The first method involves the use of the weather generator LARS-WG to quantify changes between historical and future daily rainfall maxima. The second approach consists of statistically downscaling general circulation model (GCM) output based on historical empirical relationships between GCM output and station rainfall. Lastly, the study employed recent statistically downscaled global gridded rainfall projections to characterize climate change impact rainfall structure. Both annual and seasonal rainfall extremes are studied. The results show significant changes in annual maximum daily rainfall, with an average increase as high as 20% in the 100-year return period daily rainfall. The uncertainty arising from the use of different GCMs was found to be much larger than the uncertainty from the emission scenarios. Furthermore, the annual and wet seasonal analyses exhibit similar behaviors with increased future rainfall, but the dry season is not consistent across the models. The GCM uncertainty is larger in the dry season compared to annual and wet season.MOE (Min. of Education, S’pore)Published versio

Rapid detection of BRCA1/2 recurrent mutations in Chinese breast and ovarian cancer patients with multiplex SNaPshot genotyping panels.

BRCA1/2 mutations are significant risk factors for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC), its mutation frequency in HBOC of Chinese ethnicity is around 9%, in which nearly half are recurrent mutations. In Hong Kong and China, genetic testing and counseling are not as common as in the West. To reduce the barrier of testing, a multiplex SNaPshot genotyping panel that targeted 25 Chinese BRCA1/2 mutation hotspots was developed, and its feasibility was evaluated in a local cohort of 441 breast and 155 ovarian cancer patients. For those who tested negative, they were then subjected to full-gene testing with next-generation sequencing (NGS). BRCA mutation prevalence in this cohort was 8.05% and the yield of the recurrent panel was 3.52%, identifying over 40% of the mutation carriers. Moreover, from 79 Chinese breast cancer cases recruited overseas, 2 recurrent mutations and one novel BRCA2 mutation were detected by the panel and NGS respectively. The developed genotyping panel showed to be an easy-to-perform and more affordable testing tool that can provide important contributions to improve the healthcare of Chinese women with cancer as well as family members that harbor high risk mutations for HBOC

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Modelling of the effect of ELMs on fuel retention at the bulk W divertor of JET

Effect of ELMs on fuel retention at the bulk W target of JET ITER-Like Wall was studied with multi-scale calculations. Plasma input parameters were taken from ELMy H-mode plasma experiment. The energetic intra-ELM fuel particles get implanted and create near-surface defects up to depths of few tens of nm, which act as the main fuel trapping sites during ELMs. Clustering of implantation-induced vacancies were found to take place. The incoming flux of inter-ELM plasma particles increases the different filling levels of trapped fuel in defects. The temperature increase of the W target during the pulse increases the fuel detrapping rate. The inter-ELM fuel particle flux refills the partially emptied trapping sites and fills new sites. This leads to a competing effect on the retention and release rates of the implanted particles. At high temperatures the main retention appeared in larger vacancy clusters due to increased clustering rate

Tritium distributions on W-coated divertor tiles used in the third JET ITER-like wall campaign

Tritium (T) distributions on tungsten (W)-coated plasma-facing tiles used in the third ITER-like wall campaign (2015–2016) of the Joint European Torus (JET) were examined by means of an imaging plate technique and β-ray induced x-ray spectrometry, and they were compared with the distributions after the second (2013–2014) campaign. Strong enrichment of T in beryllium (Be) deposition layers was observed after the second campaign. In contrast, T distributions after the third campaign was more uniform though Be deposition layers were visually recognized. The one of the possible explanations is enhanced desorption of T from Be deposition layers due to higher tile temperatures caused by higher energy input in the third campaign

Modelling of tungsten erosion and deposition in the divertor of JET-ILW in comparison to experimental findings

The erosion, transport and deposition of tungsten in the outer divertor of JET-ILW has been studied for an HMode discharge with low frequency ELMs. For this specific case with an inter-ELM electron temperature at the strike point of about 20 eV, tungsten sputtering between ELMs is almost exclusively due to beryllium impurity and self-sputtering. However, during ELMs tungsten sputtering due to deuterium becomes important and even dominates. The amount of simulated local deposition of tungsten relative to the amount of sputtered tungsten in between ELMs is very high and reaches values of 99% for an electron density of 5E13 cm$^{-3}$ at the strike point and electron temperatures between 10 and 30 eV. Smaller deposition values are simulated with reduced electron density. The direction of the B-field significantly influences the local deposition and leads to a reduction if the E×B drift directs towards the scrape-off-layer. Also, the thermal force can reduce the tungsten deposition, however, an ion temperature gradient of about 0.1 eV/mm or larger is needed for a significant effect. The tungsten deposition simulated during ELMs reaches values of about 98% assuming ELM parameters according to free-streaming model. The measured WI emission profiles in between and within ELMs have been reproduced by the simulation. The contribution to the overall net tungsten erosion during ELMs is about 5 times larger than the one in between ELMs for the studied case. However, this is due to the rather low electron temperature in between ELMs, which leads to deuterium impact energies below the sputtering threshold for tungsten

Impact of fast ions on density peaking in JET : fluid and gyrokinetic modeling

The effect of fast ions on turbulent particle transport, driven by ion temperature gradient (ITG)/trapped electron mode turbulence, is studied. Two neutral beam injection (NBI) heated JET discharges in different regimes are analyzed at the radial position rho(t) = 0.6, one of them an L-mode and the other one an H-mode discharge. Results obtained from the computationally efficient fluid model EDWM and the gyro-fluid model TGLF are compared to linear and nonlinear gyrokinetic GENE simulations as well as the experimentally obtained density peaking. In these models, the fast ions are treated as a dynamic species with a Maxwellian background distribution. The dependence of the zero particle flux density gradient (peaking factor) on fast ion density, temperature and corresponding gradients, is investigated. The simulations show that the inclusion of a fast ion species has a stabilizing influence on the ITG mode and reduces the peaking of the main ion and electron density profiles in the absence of sources. The models mostly reproduce the experimentally obtained density peaking for the L-mode discharge whereas the H-mode density peaking is significantly underpredicted, indicating the importance of the NBI particle source for the H-mode density profile

Dynamic modelling of local fuel inventory and desorption in the whole tokamak vacuum vessel for auto-consistent plasma-wall interaction simulations

An extension of the SolEdge2D-EIRENE code package, named D-WEE, has been developed to add the dynamics of thermal desorption of hydrogen isotopes from the surface of plasma facing materials. To achieve this purpose, DWEE models hydrogen isotopes implantation, transport and retention in those materials. Before launching autoconsistent simulation (with feedback of D-WEE on SolEdge2D-EIRENE), D-WEE has to be initialised to ensure a realistic wall behaviour in terms of dynamics (pumping or fuelling areas) and fuel content. A methodology based on modelling is introduced to perform such initialisation. A synthetic plasma pulse is built from consecutive SolEdge2D-EIRENE simulations. This synthetic pulse is used as a plasma background for the D-WEE module. A sequence of plasma pulses is simulated with D-WEE to model a tokamak operation. This simulation enables to extract at a desired time during a pulse the local fuel inventory and the local desorption flux density which could be used as initial condition for coupled plasma-wall simulations. To assess the relevance of the dynamic retention behaviour obtained in the simulation, a confrontation to post-pulse experimental pressure measurement is performed. Such confrontation reveals a qualitative agreement between the temporal pressure drop obtained in the simulation and the one observed experimentally. The simulated dynamic retention during the consecutive pulses is also studied