Prediction of geomagnetic storm strength from inner heliospheric in situ observations

Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B z . Predicting the strength and duration of B z inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B z problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B z , and resulting disturbance storm time (Dst) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX, resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind. Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s−1; observed: 488 ± 30 km s−1), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line

Defining the value proposition for using technology to improve pasture management and harvest more pasture

There is large variability in pasture grown and harvested on New Zealand dairy farms. Some of these differences are due to fixed factors such as rainfall, soil type, and temperature, while other factors could be remedied, for example improving pasture management, soil fertility and drainage. Of the aspects that could be remedied, it is expected that a substantial proportion would not be profitable to fix with current costs, knowledge, or technologies available in the near future. Of the proportion where it may be possible to fix cost-effectively, it was estimated that the net gain (after costs) is approximately $200 million per year to the dairy industry

Communication With Children and Families About Disaster: Reviewing Multi-disciplinary Literature 2015-2017

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To identify strategies for communicating with youth and children pre- and post-disaster in the context of a broader survey of child participation in disaster risk reduction as well as methods for communication with children. RECENT FINDINGS: Youth and children are capable of peer and community education and activism concerning disaster issues and such participation benefits the young actors. Family and sibling support are important in easing the impact of trauma on children. Contemporary forms of psychological first aid appear to do no harm and in line with current evidence. Generally, more evidence from evaluations is necessary to guide the development of communication strategies. Children are growing up in increasingly urban environments with less contact with nature and greater reliance on techno-social systems. Thus, young people may misunderstand natural hazards. Schools and conscious parenting can play important roles in building understanding and psychological resilience

Compliance error compensation in robotic-based milling

The paper deals with the problem of compliance errors compensation in robotic-based milling. Contrary to previous works that assume that the forces/torques generated by the manufacturing process are constant, the interaction between the milling tool and the workpiece is modeled in details. It takes into account the tool geometry, the number of teeth, the feed rate, the spindle rotation speed and the properties of the material to be processed. Due to high level of the disturbing forces/torques, the developed compensation technique is based on the non-linear stiffness model that allows us to modify the target trajectory taking into account nonlinearities and to avoid the chattering effect. Illustrative example is presented that deals with robotic-based milling of aluminum alloy

Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic spreading

We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w, and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold w_c separating a phase (w<w_c) where the disease reaches a large fraction of the population, from a phase (w >= w_c) where the disease does not spread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation, and that w_c increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that w_c is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

Insomnia symptom prevalence in England: a comparison of cross-sectional self-reported data and primary care records in the UK Biobank

Objectives: We aimed to use a large dataset to compare self-reported and primary care measures of insomnia symptom prevalence in England and establish whether they identify participants with similar characteristics. Design: Cross-sectional study with linked electronic health records (EHRs). Setting: Primary care in England. Participants: 163 748 UK Biobank participants in England (aged 38–71 at baseline) with linked primary care EHRs. Outcome measures: We compared the percentage of those self-reporting ‘usually’ having insomnia symptoms at UK Biobank baseline assessment (2006–2010) to those with a Read code for insomnia symptoms in their primary care records prior to baseline. We stratified prevalence in both groups by sociodemographic, lifestyle, sleep and health characteristics. Results: We found that 29% of the sample self-reported having insomnia symptoms, while only 6% had a Read code for insomnia symptoms in their primary care records. Only 10% of self-reported cases had an insomnia symptom Read code, while 49% of primary care cases self-reported having insomnia symptoms. In both primary care and self-reported data, prevalence of insomnia symptom cases was highest in females, older participants and those with the lowest household incomes. However, while snorers and risk takers were more likely to be a primary care case, they were less likely to self-report insomnia symptoms than non-snorers and non-risk takers. Conclusions: Only a small proportion of individuals experiencing insomnia symptoms have an insomnia symptom Read code in their primary care record. However, primary care data do provide a clinically meaningful measure of insomnia prevalence. In addition, the sociodemographic characteristics of people attending primary care with insomnia were consistent with those with self-reported insomnia, thus primary care records are a valuable data source for studying risk factors for insomnia. Further studies should replicate our findings in other populations and examine ways to increase discussions about sleep health in primary care

Program on Earth Observation Data Management Systems (EODMS)

An assessment was made of the needs of a group of potential users of satellite remotely sensed data (state, regional, and local agencies) involved in natural resources management in five states, and alternative data management systems to satisfy these needs are outlined. Tasks described include: (1) a comprehensive data needs analysis of state and local users; (2) the design of remote sensing-derivable information products that serve priority state and local data needs; (3) a cost and performance analysis of alternative processing centers for producing these products; (4) an assessment of the impacts of policy, regulation and government structure on implementing large-scale use of remote sensing technology in this community of users; and (5) the elaboration of alternative institutional arrangements for operational Earth Observation Data Management Systems (EODMS). It is concluded that an operational EODMS will be of most use to state, regional, and local agencies if it provides a full range of information services -- from raw data acquisition to interpretation and dissemination of final information products

Twistor theory on a finite graph

We show how the description of a shear-free ray congruence in Minkowski space as an evolving family of semi-conformal mappings can naturally be formulated on a finite graph. For this, we introduce the notion of holomorphic function on a graph. On a regular coloured graph of degree three, we recover the space-time picture. In the spirit of twistor theory, where a light ray is the more fundamental object from which space-time points should be derived, the line graph, whose points are the edges of the original graph, should be considered as the basic object. The Penrose twistor correspondence is discussed in this context