The effectiveness of the Inspiring Futures parenting programme in improving behavioural and emotional outcomes in primary school children with behavioural or emotional difficulties: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

textabstractBackground: There is a need to build the evidence base of early interventions promoting children's health and development in the UK. Malachi Specialist Family Support Services ('Malachi') is a voluntary sector organisation based in the UK that delivers a therapeutic parenting group programme called Inspiring Futures to parents of children identified as having behavioural and emotional difficulties. The programme comprises two parts, delivered sequentially: (1) a group-based programme for all parents for 10-12 weeks, and (2) one-to-one sessions with selected parents from the group-based element for up to 12 weeks. Methods/design: A randomised controlled trial will be conducted to evaluate Malachi's Inspiring Futures parenting programme. Participants will be allocated to one of two possible arms, with follow-up measures at 16 weeks (post-parent group programme) and at 32 weeks (post-one-to-one sessions with selected parents). The sample size is 248 participants with a randomisation allocation ratio of 1:1. The intervention arm will be offered the Inspiring Futures programme. The control group will receive services as usual. The aim is to determine the effectiveness of the Inspiring Futures programme on the primary outcome of behavioural and emotional difficulties of primary school children identified as having behavioural or emotional difficulties. Discussion: This study will further enhance the evidence for early intervention parenting programmes for child behavioural and emotional problems in the UK

Influence of Contact Definitions in Assessment of the Relative Importance of Social Settings in Disease Transmission Risk

BACKGROUND: Realistic models of disease transmission incorporating complex population heterogeneities require input from quantitative population mixing studies. We use contact diaries to assess the relative importance of social settings in respiratory pathogen spread using three measures of person contact hours (PCH) as proxies for transmission risk with an aim to inform bipartite network models of respiratory pathogen transmission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our survey examines the contact behaviour for a convenience sample of 65 adults, with each encounter classified as occurring in a work, retail, home, social, travel or "other" setting. The diary design allows for extraction of PCH-interaction (cumulative time in face-face conversational or touch interaction with contacts)--analogous to the contact measure used in several existing surveys--as well as PCH-setting (product of time spent in setting and number of people present) and PCH-reach (product of time spent in setting and number of people in close proximity). Heterogeneities in day-dependent distribution of risk across settings are analysed using partitioning and cluster analyses and compared between days and contact measures. Although home is typically the highest-risk setting when PCH measures isolate two-way interactions, its relative importance compared to social and work settings may reduce when adopting a more inclusive contact measure that considers the number and duration of potential exposure events. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneities in location-dependent contact behaviour as measured by contact diary studies depend on the adopted contact definition. We find that contact measures isolating face-face conversational or touch interactions suggest that contact in the home dominates, whereas more inclusive contact measures indicate that home and work settings may be of higher importance. In the absence of definitive knowledge of the contact required to facilitate transmission of various respiratory pathogens, it is important for surveys to consider alternative contact measures

Molecular pedomorphism underlies craniofacial skeletal evolution in Antarctic notothenioid fishes

Background Pedomorphism is the retention of ancestrally juvenile traits by adults in a descendant taxon. Despite its importance for evolutionary change, there are few examples of a molecular basis for this phenomenon. Notothenioids represent one of the best described species flocks among marine fishes, but their diversity is currently threatened by the rapidly changing Antarctic climate. Notothenioid evolutionary history is characterized by parallel radiations from a benthic ancestor to pelagic predators, which was accompanied by the appearance of several pedomorphic traits, including the reduction of skeletal mineralization that resulted in increased buoyancy. Results We compared craniofacial skeletal development in two pelagic notothenioids, Chaenocephalus aceratus and Pleuragramma antarcticum, to that in a benthic species, Notothenia coriiceps, and two outgroups, the threespine stickleback and the zebrafish. Relative to these other species, pelagic notothenioids exhibited a delay in pharyngeal bone development, which was associated with discrete heterochronic shifts in skeletal gene expression that were consistent with persistence of the chondrogenic program and a delay in the osteogenic program during larval development. Morphological analysis also revealed a bias toward the development of anterior and ventral elements of the notothenioid pharyngeal skeleton relative to dorsal and posterior elements. Conclusions Our data support the hypothesis that early shifts in the relative timing of craniofacial skeletal gene expression may have had a significant impact on the adaptive radiation of Antarctic notothenioids into pelagic habitats

Division of the tropical savanna fire season into early and late dry season burning using MODIS active fires

Tropical savannas and grasslands are the most frequently burned biome in the world, and fire has an important role in sustaining ecosystem processes. Modern management of fires in savannas has roots in traditions stretching back centuries, and nowadays earth observation data is incorporated extensively in fire management practices. In tropical savannas in particular strongly seasonal monsoonal climates allow relatively low severity prescribed burning in the early part of the dry season (EDS) with the goal of preventing more destructive late dry season (LDS) fires. In many regional contexts it is common that a specific, fixed date is used officially to indicate when the window of safe burning has expired and the EDS transitions to the LDS, based on the experience of local or regional fire management authorities. This approach, while practical, neglects inter-annual variability in meteorological conditions and timing of onset of more dangerous fire weather. In this study, we pro-pose a remote sensing-based method for determining when this EDS window expires for five savanna-dominated continental-scale regions. By taking ad- vantage of the fact that conditions allowing night-time burning occur later in the dry season, we use day and night-time active fire detections from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments to set a flexible date of transition between the EDS and LDS. The vast majority of tropical savannas have very variable (std. dev. ≈ 20–40 days) transition dates, though this is somewhat modulated by fire frequency. Fuel connectivity rather than fuel condition appears to be a strong driving factor behind this variability. We find that especially national parks and protected areas have a high proportion of potentially more severe burning in the LDS, though areas with well-established EDS burning programmes are reducing this impact.</p

Incentivizing sustainable fire management in Australia's northern arid spinifex grasslands

Fire management across Australia's fire-prone 1.2 M km2 northern savannas region has been transformed over the past decade supported by the inception of Australia's national regulated emissions reduction market in 2012. Today, incentivised fire management is undertaken over a quarter of that entire region, providing a range of socio-cultural, environmental, and economic benefits, including for remote Indigenous (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander) communities and enterprises. Building on those advances, here we explore the emissions abatement potential for expanding incentivised fire management opportunities to include a contiguous fire-prone region, extending to monsoonal but annually lower (&lt;600 mm) and more variable rainfall conditions, supporting predominantly shrubby spinifex (Triodia) hummock grasslands characteristic of much of Australia's deserts and semi-arid rangelands. Adapting a standard methodological approach applied previously for assessing savanna emissions parameters, we first describe fire regime and associated climatic attributes for a proposed ∼850,000 km2 lower rainfall (600–350 mm MAR) focal region. Second, based on regional field assessments of seasonal fuel accumulation, combustion, burnt area patchiness, and accountable methane and nitrous oxide Emission Factor parameters, we find that significant emissions abatement is feasible for regional hummock grasslands. This applies specifically for more frequently burnt sites under higher rainfall conditions if substantial early dry season prescribed fire management is undertaken resulting in marked reduction in late dry season wildfires. The proposed Northern Arid Zone (NAZ) focal envelope is substantially under Indigenous land ownership and management, and in addition to reducing emissions impacts associated with recurrent extensive wildfires, development of commercial landscape-scale fire management opportunities would significantly support social, cultural and biodiversity management aspirations as promoted by Indigenous landowners. Combined with existing regulated savanna fire management regions, inclusion of the NAZ under existing legislated abatement methodologies would effectively provide incentivised fire management covering a quarter of Australia's landmass. This could complement an allied (non-carbon) accredited method valuing combined social, cultural and biodiversity outcomes from enhanced fire management of hummock grasslands. Although the management approach has potential application to other international fire-prone savanna grasslands, caution is required to ensure that such practice does not result in irreversible woody encroachment and undesirable habitat change.</p

Instantaneous pre-fire biomass and fuel load measurements from multi-spectral UAS mapping in southern African Savannas

Landscape fires are substantial sources of (greenhouse) gases and aerosols. Fires in savanna landscapes represent more than half of global fire carbon emissions. Quantifying emissions from fires relies on accurate burned area, fuel load and burning efficiency data. Of these, fuel load remains the source of the largest uncertainty. In this study, we used high spatial resolution images from an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) mounted multispectral camera, in combination with meteorological data from the ERA-5 land dataset, to model instantaneous pre-fire above-ground biomass. We constrained our model with ground measurements taken in two locations in savannadominated regions in Southern Africa, one low-rainfall region (660 mm year−1) in the North-West District (Ngamiland), Botswana, and one high-rainfall region (940 mm year−1) in Niassa Province (northern Mozambique). We found that for fine surface fuel classes (live grass and dead plant litter), the model was able to reproduce measured Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) (R2 of 0.91 and 0.77 for live grass and total fine fuel, respectively) across both low and high rainfall areas. The model was less successful in representing other classes, e.g., woody debris, but in the regions considered, these are less relevant to biomass burning and make smaller contributions to total AGB

Opportunities and challenges for savanna burning emissions abatement in southern Africa

Savanna fires occurring in sub-Saharan Africa account for over 60% of global fire extent, of which more than half occurs in the Southern Hemisphere contributing ~29% of global fire emissions. Building on experience in reducing savanna fire emissions in fire-prone north Australian savannas through implementation of an internationally accredited ‘savanna burning’ emissions abatement methodology, we explore opportunities and challenges associated with the application of a similar approach to incentivise emissions reduction in fire-prone southern African savannas. We first show that for a focal region covering seven contiguous countries, at least 80% of annual savanna large fire (>250 ha) extent and emissions occur under relatively severe late dry season (LDS) fire-weather conditions, predominantly in sparsely inhabited areas. We then assess the feasibility of adapting the Australian emissions abatement methodology through exploratory field studies at the Tsodilo Hills World Heritage site in north-west Botswana, and the Niassa Special Reserve in northern Mozambique. Our assessment demonstrates that application of a savanna burning emissions abatement method focused on the undertaking of strategically located early dry season (EDS) burning to reduce LDS wildfire extent and resultant emissions meets key technical criteria, including: LDS fine fuels tend to be markedly greater than EDS fuels given seasonal leaf litter inputs; LDS fires tend to be significantly more severe and combust more fuels; methane and nitrous oxide emission factors are essentially equivalent in EDS and LDS periods under cured fuel conditions. In discussion we consider associated key implementation challenges and caveats that need to be addressed for progressing development of savanna burning methods that incentivise sustainable fire management, reduce emissions, and support community livelihoods in wildfire-dominated southern African savannas