A pollen identification expert system ; an application of expert system techniques to biological identification : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Computer Science Massey University

The application of expert systems techniques to biological identification has been investigated and a system developed which assists a user to identify and count air-borne pollen grains. The present system uses a modified taxonomic data matrix as the structure for the knowledge base. This allows domain experts to easily assess and modify the knowledge using a familiar data structure. The data structure can be easily converted to rules or a simple frame-based structure if required for other applications. A method of ranking the importance of characters for identifying each taxon has been developed which assists the system to quickly narrow an identification by rejecting or accepting candidate taxa. This method is very similar to that used by domain experts

Completing Markets in a One-Good, Pure Exchange Economy Without State-Contingent Securities

Pareto-efficient consumption in a pure-exchange, one good economy varies over states of nature with respect to only two factors: real aggregate supply and individual utility shocks. One’s optimal contract receipts vary with respect to only these two factors and the ratio of one’s endowment to real aggregate supply. How one’s Pareto-efficient consumption varies with real aggregate supply depends solely on how one’s relative risk aversion compares to the average. Complete markets can be approximately achieved by four contracts dealing with these factors. This has implications concerning central banking, efficient insurance contract design, and a possible new financial innovation.complete markets, inflation indexing, nominal-income targeting, inflation targeting, price-level targeting, monetary policy

Price Indeterminacy Reinvented: Pegging Interest Rates While Targeting Prices, Inflation, or Nominal Income

Contrary to Sargent and Wallace (1975), a central bank’s use of an interest-rate instrument does determine prices when the central bank pursues either a short-term or long-term price target. However, in order for a central bank’s pursuit of a long-term price target to be credible, the public still needs something like a Taylor or McCallum-Woodford rule. The use of an interest-rate instrument also determines prices when the central bank targets nominal income in either the short-term or long-term. However, if the central bank targets interest rates in the short term with a long-term inflation target, then prices are indeterminate.price indeterminancy, pegging interest rates, inflation targeting, nominal-income targeting, nominal-aggregate-demand targeting, price-level targeting

The Indexing Paradox -- Be Thankful for Irrational Investors

This paper introduces the indexing paradox, which states that it if all investors are rational with rational expectations and have a common risk-averse investment performance measure, then no investor can expect to do better than the market. If the cost of indexing is less than the cost of active investing, then all investors would index, which would result with no mechanism to price the possible investments. This paradox relies merely on understanding averages. It does not rely on markets being “informationally efficient,” as demonstrated in a model where different investors have differing degrees of informational advantages and disadvantages.index funds, indexing paradox

Logical Pitfalls of Assuming Bounded Solutions to Expectational Difference Equations

The precedent for solving expectational difference equations has been to solve converging equations backwards and diverging equations forward by assuming the solution is bounded. This precedent often leads to incorrect solutions and has less than rigorous foundations. More rigorous procedures would be to determine the terminal condition in a finite model and take the limit of that terminal condition as the horizon goes to infinity. Also, whether one solves forward or backwards depends on the context of the difference equation, not on convergence or divergence. These new procedures reveal Woodford’s (2003) model of a cashless economy to be incomplete.expectational difference equations, infinite horizons, Woodford's cashless economy, price indeterminacy, pegging interest rates

21 Arguments Against Propensity Analyses of Probability

Several arguments against various propensity analyses of probability are proposed. Though not all of the arguments are of equal worth, their diversity and number make the prospect of a successful propensity analysis of probability seem unlikely

Sounding the Alarm on Inflation Indexing and Strict Inflation Targeting

Unanticipated inflation or deflation causes one party of a nominal contract to gain at the expense of the other party, an effect absent in macroeconomic models with one representative consumer or with consumers having identical consumption. In this paper's general dynamic and stochastic equilibrium model, diverse consumers maximize risk-averse utility and rent labor and land to profit-maximizing firms. Both inflation indexing and strict inflation targeting are Pareto inefficient. When Pareto sharing of changes of aggregate supply is proportional, nominal contracts under perfect nominal income targeting are Pareto efficient, while quasi-real contracts are Pareto efficient regardless.inflation indexing, inflation targeting, quasi-real indexing, nominal income targeting