Completing Markets in a One-Good, Pure Exchange Economy Without State-Contingent Securities

Pareto-efficient consumption in a pure-exchange, one good economy varies over states of nature with respect to only two factors: real aggregate supply and individual utility shocks. One’s optimal contract receipts vary with respect to only these two factors and the ratio of one’s endowment to real aggregate supply. How one’s Pareto-efficient consumption varies with real aggregate supply depends solely on how one’s relative risk aversion compares to the average. Complete markets can be approximately achieved by four contracts dealing with these factors. This has implications concerning central banking, efficient insurance contract design, and a possible new financial innovation.complete markets, inflation indexing, nominal-income targeting, inflation targeting, price-level targeting, monetary policy

Price Indeterminacy Reinvented: Pegging Interest Rates While Targeting Prices, Inflation, or Nominal Income

Contrary to Sargent and Wallace (1975), a central bank’s use of an interest-rate instrument does determine prices when the central bank pursues either a short-term or long-term price target. However, in order for a central bank’s pursuit of a long-term price target to be credible, the public still needs something like a Taylor or McCallum-Woodford rule. The use of an interest-rate instrument also determines prices when the central bank targets nominal income in either the short-term or long-term. However, if the central bank targets interest rates in the short term with a long-term inflation target, then prices are indeterminate.price indeterminancy, pegging interest rates, inflation targeting, nominal-income targeting, nominal-aggregate-demand targeting, price-level targeting

A pollen identification expert system ; an application of expert system techniques to biological identification : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Computer Science Massey University

The application of expert systems techniques to biological identification has been investigated and a system developed which assists a user to identify and count air-borne pollen grains. The present system uses a modified taxonomic data matrix as the structure for the knowledge base. This allows domain experts to easily assess and modify the knowledge using a familiar data structure. The data structure can be easily converted to rules or a simple frame-based structure if required for other applications. A method of ranking the importance of characters for identifying each taxon has been developed which assists the system to quickly narrow an identification by rejecting or accepting candidate taxa. This method is very similar to that used by domain experts

The Indexing Paradox -- Be Thankful for Irrational Investors

This paper introduces the indexing paradox, which states that it if all investors are rational with rational expectations and have a common risk-averse investment performance measure, then no investor can expect to do better than the market. If the cost of indexing is less than the cost of active investing, then all investors would index, which would result with no mechanism to price the possible investments. This paradox relies merely on understanding averages. It does not rely on markets being “informationally efficient,” as demonstrated in a model where different investors have differing degrees of informational advantages and disadvantages.index funds, indexing paradox

Sounding the Alarm on Inflation Indexing and Strict Inflation Targeting

Unanticipated inflation or deflation causes one party of a nominal contract to gain at the expense of the other party, an effect absent in macroeconomic models with one representative consumer or with consumers having identical consumption. In this paper's general dynamic and stochastic equilibrium model, diverse consumers maximize risk-averse utility and rent labor and land to profit-maximizing firms. Both inflation indexing and strict inflation targeting are Pareto inefficient. When Pareto sharing of changes of aggregate supply is proportional, nominal contracts under perfect nominal income targeting are Pareto efficient, while quasi-real contracts are Pareto efficient regardless.inflation indexing, inflation targeting, quasi-real indexing, nominal income targeting

21 Arguments Against Propensity Analyses of Probability

Several arguments against various propensity analyses of probability are proposed. Though not all of the arguments are of equal worth, their diversity and number make the prospect of a successful propensity analysis of probability seem unlikely

The effects of childbirth-related post-traumatic stress disorder on women and their relationships: a qualitative study

There is converging evidence that 1%-2% of women develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as a result of childbirth. The current study aimed to explore the long-term effects of childbirth-related PTSD on women, their relationship with their partner and their relationship with their child. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with six women who reported clinically significant PTSD after birth, ranging from 7 months to 18 years beforehand. Interviews were transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis. Childbirth-related PTSD was found to have wide-ranging effects on women and their relationships. Women reported changes in physical well-being, mood and behaviour, social interaction, and fear of childbirth. Women reported negative effects on their relationship with their partner, including sexual dysfunction, disagreements and blame for events of birth. The mother-baby bond was also seriously affected. Nearly all women reported initial feelings of rejection towards the baby but this changed over time. Long-term, women seemed to have either avoidant or anxious attachments with their child. It is concluded that childbirth-related PTSD can have severe and lasting effects on women and their relationships with their partner and children. Further research is needed to compare this to normal difficulties experienced by women after having children